Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party (JSP), the only National Democratic Alliance ally in the Telugu states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, will contest 10-12 seats in the upcoming Telangana election, sources from both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and JSP confirmed to The Quint.
The list of JSP candidates is expected to be finalised over the next couple of days for their names to feature in the BJP's second list scheduled for announcement on 1 November.
While the JSP had originally requested 32 seats, the number of seats agreed upon between Home Minister Amit Shah and Pawan Kalyan at a meeting in Delhi on Wednesday, 25 October, was decided taking into consideration JSP's ability to swing votes and ease the BJP's burden of finding and fielding winnable candidates.
"We believe we have a sizeable presence in Telangana as well and have requested seats in parts of Greater Hyderabad and in areas closer to Andhra Pradesh," said N Sankar Goud, Telangana in-charge of the JSP.
The JSP has reportedly asked for a few seats each in Nalgonda, Mahabubnagar, and Rangareddy districts in the Telangana hinterland in addition to Kukatpally, Serilingampally, and Malkajgiri in Hyderabad. However, the BJP team is evaluating if the city seats are worth pawning.
The BJP's Faint Gains
But those watching the elections say the BJP is moving desperately.
Pawan Kalyan's entry has supposedly come at the Home Minister Amit Shah's request. With the national party finding it a harrowing task to field winning candidates from the 6,000-odd applications it received, the JSP's entree could save the BJP a few blushes.
"The BJP needs Jana Sena more than Jana Sena needs the BJP. This is a face-saving measure. With four wins in the by-election and a thumping result during the municipal elections, the BJP is throwing itself at every option to play the rescue act," said Dr Pulla Rao, columnist and a public affairs activist.
They are searching for answers; they are searching for alliances, Dr Rao said of the BJP.
The BJP was once in the second position in the state around 2020 with its then state president Bandi Sanjay Kumar's extensive efforts to familiarise rural Telangana with saffron that was totally dyed in BRS' (then Telangana Rashtra Samithi) pink since the latter entered office in 2014.
Although many reasons afterwards led to the BJP's steady slide, Bandi Sanjay's removal is being pointed as the harbinger of ill luck. Sanjay's replacement was Kishan Reddy.
The party president's inability to persuade its leaders not to desert it for the Congress is not such a safely guarded secret either. "We are in such a confusion. We do not know who's coming and who's going these days,” a Telangana BJP spokesperson said as he was dashing off to ensure all arrangements were in order for Amit Shah's rally in Suryapet on Friday, 27 October.
And so, it is said that the Home Minister, who is now touring the state, had to conceive the idea of the alliance with the JSP.
Kamma-Kapu Votes
Pawan Kalyan could be seen as a political understudy who is yet to showcase his electoral progress in Telangana, but he – if the BJP's calculations were to be believed – could be the Kamma-Kapu vote magnet.
"The Kammas and Kapus will not go with the BRS. And they are upset with the Congress for giving their leaders just two tickets thus far. So, Pawan Kalyan's undecided vote bank is the Andhra settlers from the Kamma and Kapu communities," Dr Rao said.
While the Kammas account for nearly 4.6 percent of Telangana, Munnuru Kapu caste – to which Pawan Kalyan belongs – is the third largest among dominant castes in the state, next only to the Reddy and Velama communities.
Mathematically, the Jana Sena Party could be among the biggest vote splitters in the state – another ploy by the BJP to bring in a spoiler at the last minute. Splitting the anti-incumbency vote means fewer votes to the Congress. One does not have to hypothesise too hard to understand what the BJP's tactic of introducing Jana Sena to the electoral field in Telangana could mean.
The Congress' baptism of Chiranjeevi and his Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) was also precisely done with the same intent in 2008 when Andhra Pradesh was still united. With just under a year to go for the Assembly and Parliamentary elections, actor Chiranjeevi, Pawan Kalyan's elder brother became a superstar winning 18 seats in the state, also earning himself a Minister of State post in the UPA II cabinet.
Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam cornered all the Kapu seats that were traditionally the Telugu Desam Party's next favoured community after the Kammas. The PRP was successful in swinging 15 percent of the votes in the Telangana region in 2009 and close to 30 percent in Andhra where it was stronger. The party promptly wound down and merged with Congress in 2011 once the 'mission vote-split' objective was achieved.
Trial by Fire for Jana Sena Party?
How could Telangana cameo possibly benefit Pawan Kalyan?
"We are trying to assess how our cadre will perform in Telangana. We have a reasonably strong base of more than 50,000 youth as members in the city alone," said Sankar Goud. He admits that it was time the party contested elections since he and many other leaders have been awaiting their turn for the last 10 years.
Mahendar Reddy, the president of the Jana Sena Party says that his party's goal at the moment is to assist and assure the BJP of its support. "As an ally of the NDA, we must ensure they win. We were very successful in keeping the Congress out in 2019 with the 'Congress Hatao, Desh Bachao' campaign. In some constituencies, we are confident of a victory with a double-digit margin because we know the Kapu women and youth are with us," said Reddy.
The Jana Sena Party has been in the NDA for the last four years.
Splitting votes by anything more than 10 percent could swing the election results anyway, says Prof A Chandrasekhar, political science professor from the Sri Krishnadevaraya University at Anantapur. He has watched Pawan Kalyan closely since his inroads into politics and says that though the actor projects himself as inconsistent and funny, he is far removed from this perception.
"Having seen his brother fight elections, he understands the importance of a party structure. He is heavily dependent on the TDP for their cadre and structure. And in Telangana too, he will utilise the BJP's cadre to his benefit as well," said Prof Chandrasekhar.
Mahender Reddy, too, agreed that the discussion with the BJP also revolved around electioneering and poll management. Pawan Kalyan could actively canvas for the BJP in a few key constituencies and also look for similar favour elsewhere. "Finally, the one who is able to get people to come out of their homes and vote is the one that wins," says Reddy, who sees his party's participation in the Telangana elections as an important experiment.
Impact on 2024 Parlimanent Polls
What happens in 2023, never stays in 2023. It will spill over to 2024.
The JSP supremo received a call from Amit Shah that Chandrababu Naidu still hasn't gotten. Pawan Kalyan's Telangana sortie would be a litmus test of sorts for both the BJP and JSP to analyse what they mean to each other. Only a post-poll audit can reveal if the Southern Star PK will still steadfastly remain an NDA ally.
It is already being speculated that Pawan Kalyan tabled the possibility of BJP trucking with his party in Andhra Pradesh as well. However, sources said that while Amit Shah was not in favour of it, he did not hurriedly dismiss it either.
The national general secretary of the BJP BL Santosh seems to have told the BJP cadre that a fortnight was enough to impact the results. Pawan Kalyan has a month to showcase his performance on the electoral stage and prove to the BJP that Amit Shah dialled the right number for help.
(Deepika Amirapu is a multi-media journalist who has reported for print, broadcast, and online news corporations since 2008. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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