The BJP central leadership’s decision to hold in abeyance Gujarat Chief Minister Anandiben Patel’s resignation, moments after she pleaded on Facebook that she be relieved on the ground that she had attained the age of 75, indicates that her time was almost up. Her immediate predicament is the result of a series of socio-political convulsions across the state making her position untenable.
Over the past few months, several factors combined to create a charged atmosphere in Gujarat with Anandiben, who was handpicked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to succeed him, seemingly unable to take on the challenges within and outside the state unit of the BJP.
Fallout of Dalit Agitation
Among the most important and politically significant factors behind Anandiben’s decision stems from the ongoing Dalit agitation which she and her party not only failed to assess but took no decisive steps to overcome. The beleaguered chief minister took no measures to reach out to the aggrieved Dalit community which comprises 7.1 percent of the state’s population.
Though not a very politically significant constituency, the likely loss of support from the Dalits could hurt the BJP in the event of their votes shifting to the Congress before Gujarat goes to polls later next year. This is not an altogether unlikely scenario, at least in some constituencies across the state.
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Mishandling of Patidar Protests
Fourteen months after she assumed the office of chief minister at Swarnim Sankul secretariat in Gandhinagar, Anandiben’s first major challenge came in the form of the Patidars’ agitation led by Hardik Patel and backed by at least two of her cabinet ministers, one of whom is related to the Ambani family.
As the Patidar movement gathered pace, with the demand for reservation for the community in government employment and school and college admission, Anandiben failed to read the politics. She took strong police action against the agitationists, further fuelling the Patidars who comprise a formidable electoral base for the BJP in Gujarat.
Weakening Hold
Her mishandling of the Patidar agitation indicated her weakening hold over the state administration, especially after some of the top bureaucrats from the state moved to the Centre, especially to the Prime Minister’s Office.
As Modi moved to 7, Race Course Road, two important Patel ministers, Saurabh Patel, the son-in-law of Ramnkibhai Ambani, elder brother of Dhirubhai Ambani, and Nitinbhai Patel worked in unison – fanning the Patel agitation – to the detriment of Anandiben’s hold on intra-BJP politics and the state administration. More importantly, it is no secret that Anandiben and BJP national president Amit Shah did not enjoy the warmest of relations, with the Patel agitation doing little good to her fortunes.
It’s the Economy, Stupid
While the political and social variables were challenging enough, the relative economic stagnation, irrespective of the so-called “Gujarat Model”, over the years was too deep to pull the state out of its morass. Two years is too little time to reverse the economy’s downward trend.
Moral Authority Under the Scanner
Last but not the least, Anandiben’s moral authority was eroded by a series of land deals involving her daughter Anar. These deals allegedly related to transactions involving more than 400 acres of prime land which were given away to companies directly or indirectly linked to the chief minister’s daughter. The deals were so questionable that even Modi sent out a veiled warning to Anandiben, saying that she must dispel “wrong impressions” about her daughter’s and son’s role in acquiring prime land through not-so-kosher deals.
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