Modi’s ‘Sweet’ Diplomatic Overtures Are Making Moscow Uneasy

Recent trend of defence deals preceding Modi’s foreign trip have not gone down well with Russia, India’s oldest ally.

New Diplomatic Doctrine

• A day before Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on his visit to the US, cabinet approved defence proposals worth $ 3.2 billion
• Announcement of large defence contracts on the eve of a foreign visit seems to be a trend with Modi these days
• Russia used to be the major supplier of arms at one point of time before India turned to the US and Israel
• Fallout of India trying to get cosy with the West is the emergence of reports that Russia is willing to sell attack choppers to Pakistan
• Arms imports for India increased by 140% between 2010 and 2014, thus everyone wants to woo the country with its defence deals

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet again on one of his frequent travels abroad. This time he revisits the US, presumably to take part in the 70th session of the UN General Assembly and to press India’s case for UN Security Council reforms and a permanent seat on it.

He will also be visiting the Silicon Valley to drum up investment in India. The highpoint will be the meeting with President Barack Obama, clearly a must these days considering both are now on first name terms. Modi has a passion for foreign travel and has developed an art of sweetening his diplomacy with arms deals. In fact this has become a somewhat embarrassing feature of his diplomatic drive.

A day before Modi embarked on his seven-day trip to the US, the cabinet cleared a proposal to buy $3.2 billion worth of US-made CH 47F heavy lift Chinook and AH-64 Block III Apache attack helicopters. This deal was spoken about in 2014 when Modi made a state visit to the US and was advertised as the new high watermark in India-US relations. In August 2015, the Indian Air Force cleared a proposal to buy three more giant C-17 Globemaster aircraft. As per the 2011 contract, which was worth $4.7 billion, India had an option clause to purchase six additional C-17s over its order of 10.

On this visit he is also expected to discuss the potential purchase of 16 S-70B Seahawk multi-role helicopters from Sikorsky for the Indian Navy. The deal is estimated to be worth about $1 billion. Due to these exertions, India has climbed to the top ranking from the 24th place as an importer of arms from the US after buying $1.9 billion worth of American military hardware last year.

Modi’s Arms Diplomacy

The announcement of large defence contracts on the eve of a foreign visit by Modi is now a regular practice. When he made his first overseas visit to self-professedly pacifist Japan, the media was primed with news that Japan has also removed six Indian space and defence entities from the “foreign end users list”, which will help defence technology cooperation. A much-awaited agreement on India buying the Shin Maywa US-2 amphibian aircraft was completed. A joint statement said both sides would work on building the US-2 in India “including transfer of the aircraft and its technology” to India.

On the heels of Modi’s visit to Germany, also in April this year, the German defence minister, Ursula von der Leyen, recently arrived in Delhi for a three-day visit during which she sought “to deepen bilateral ties, besides focusing on regional and international security, and defence issues.” She also visited India’s Western Naval Command headquarters and met the Flag Officer C-in-C to discuss India’s naval expansion plans and requirements. This is most unusual but in a regime where military purchases are high on the agenda, nothing comes as a surprise anymore.

“Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Germany in April has given a new impetus to Indo-German relations. Leyen’s visit will be a further boost for our strategic partnership at all levels”

— German ambassador to India, Michael Steiner

When Modi visited France in April this year, he conveyed India’s decision to buy 36 Rafale fighter aircraft in flyaway condition “as quickly as possible” bypassing the log-jammed deal for supply of 126 Rafale aircraft. For this, an inter-governmental agreement will be signed under “separate terms and conditions” which will be discussed by officials. This deal is worth over $7 billion, if it materialises.

Moscow is not Happy

Till India began buying arms from the West, with the US and Israel emerging as major suppliers, Russia was the main source of India’s arsenal. Not surprisingly there have been periodic expressions of disquiet over this from Moscow. So Modi is addressing Moscow’s concerns too. After meeting President Putin in December 2014, Modi said that he looked forward to working with the Russian President to further deepen and broad-base the strategic partnership including in the areas of defence, nuclear energy, space, energy, trade and investment, and addressing regional and global challenges.

India has major deals with Russia to purchase over 290 SU30MKI fighters and the fifth generation PAK FA T-50 stealth fighter that it is jointly developing with Russia. But despite this, India’s rash of strategic partnerships has caused Russia to react in Putin’s characteristic style. Consequently, there are reports of Russia willing to sell Pakistan attack helicopters. The message is quite clear. Moscow is not happy with Modi’s arms diplomacy. It would still prefer India to keep the West at arms length. Despite these Russian misgivings the operational phrase in our diplomacy now seems to be “strategic partnership.” In other words the carrot of defence purchases is dangled to buy political support.

According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) the volume of Indian imports of major weapons between 2010 and 2014 was 140% higher than in the previous five-year period, making India the world’s largest major arms importer during this time.  India accounted for almost 15% of global imports, more than three times as much as China, whose arms imports actually decreased by 42% between 2005 and 2009 and 2010-14.  In fact, India now seems to be the new Saudi Arabia, a nation to be courted because it buys huge quantities of weapons.

(The author is chairman and founder of Centre for Policy Alternatives)