- Himanta Biswa Sarma’s exit from Congress will bring the BJP within striking distance of forming a government for the first time since independence
- When in Congress, Sarma was the most powerful man in the government, even as Gogoi remained CM
- Sarma’s name has cropped up in several scandals, but so far they are allegations at best
- Top BJP leaders have overlooked all of Sarma’s frailties, and are ready to embrace him
Himanta Biswa Sarma is a big catch for the BJP. His switch-over is a big blow for the Congress government in Assam under Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi – faced with a tough state election scheduled for early next year.
A one-time favourite of Gogoi, who gave him unbridled power and access, his exit will bring the BJP within striking distance of forming a government in the state for the first time since independence. Assam’s demographic contours are such that it would be difficult for the BJP to sweep the state.
It will have to perhaps take the help of other groups to even stake claims of ruling in Dispur. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), led by Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, is now the main opposition party in the assembly. The AIUDF, which represents the minorities of the state, is a powerful force in lower Assam.
Striking a Deal
A BJP government can work with the AIUDF, considering that a precedent has already been set in Jammu and Kashmir, where Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s PDP joined hands with the BJP to form a coalition government. But negotiations will be left for after the elections.
The BJP cannot have any electoral understanding with Badruddin Ajmal before the polls. For now, the emphasis will be for the BJP to win the maximum number of seats in the state, to be in a strong negotiating position.
Tough Days Ahead for the Congress
The Congress at the moment is playing on a weak wicket. Even if Sarma remained with the party, chances of it coming back to power would be pretty dismal. The fact is that people want a change.
Tarun Gogoi has ruled Assam for fifteen long years, and most people don’t want more of that. But still the BJP would have got a run for their money if Sarma remained with the Congress. Moreover, Gogoi has lost his touch – he appears jaded and too old now to bother to mind his words.
Once when he was asked about the floods in Assam, his nonchalant reply was, “Floods happen not just here, it happens everywhere. Remember Katrina in the US.’’ People wondered what floods in general had to do with the situation in Assam, where the reporter actually wanted to know what the government was doing for the flood victims.
He often makes politically incorrect statements and gets away with them because of his age. Most people think he is just too complacent now and does not bother much.
Himanta, the Master Strategist
Sarma is an asset to any political party. He was the man who delivered Assam to the Congress in the last two elections. He is extremely hardworking and a master manipulator
– Ajit Bhuyan, Editor-in-Chief of a local TV channel
Sarma is also a good organiser, a master strategist and a great orator, adds Bhuyan. He is the protégé of former Congress leader and Chief Minister Hiteshwar Saikia. Sarma was brought into the party by Saikia – a master tactician and a rather corrupt politician, but a man who ran an efficient administration. Sarma exhibits many of Saikia’s traits.
Sarma’s name has cropped up in several scandals, including the Saradha scam. Saradha Chairman and Managing Director Sudipta Sen – who ran the ponzy scam, and is now cooling his heels in a Kolkata prison – had allegedly paid huge sums of money to Sarma for his Assam operations. His name also cropped up in the Louis Berger matter, but so far these have remained allegations at best.
Parting Ways
Unlike other Congress ministers, Sarma would deliver on his promises and make sure that all the schemes under his ministry were implemented. He was the most powerful man in the government, even as Gogoi remained the chief minister.
However, friction began when the CM decided to get his son Gaurav Gogoi into politics and the party. Sarma had seen himself as the logical successor to Gogoi, but the equation changed once Gogoi decided to promote his son. Sarma wanted the Congress high command to remove Gogoi and make him the CM. While Sonia was not averse to this, Rahul Gandhi opposed it tooth and nail.
Sarma travelled to Delhi several times and met Rahul Gandhi. In his usual style, Gandhi listened to his complaints but did little.
Political Calculations
When Sarma returned home after joining the BJP, he received a thunderous welcome from his supporters. In a show of strength, he indicated to the BJP what he was bringing to the table for them. Thirteen to fourteen Congress legislators are likely to follow Sarma and join the BJP.
Sarma has switched sides not for any ideological considerations. After all, when he was with the Congress, the Assam BJP had booklets brought out against him, detailing the corruption cases he was allegedly involved in.
Sarma will claim chief ministership if the BJP is able to form a government in Assam. A powerful and efficient leader like him is bound to have many adversaries in the party. One of them is Youth Affairs and Sports minister Sarbanananda Sonowal. The two have been rivals since their student politics days. It is likely that Sonowal will not be happy with Sarma in the BJP.
However with elections in mind, top BJP leaders have overlooked all of Sarma’s frailties, and are ready to embrace him. Whether he can deliver what they want, remains to be seen.
(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist)
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