Speaking at the National Defence University on June 3, Pakistan’s army chief General Raheel Sharif said, “Kashmir is the unfinished agenda of the Partition of 1947…Pakistan and Kashmir are inseparable.” Accusing India of “supporting terrorism,” he added that “Pakistan (is) opposed to the use of proxies versus other countries.”
General Sharif chose to ignore the fact that his army and the ISI have been fighting a proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir since 1989-90 and that he has stepped up cease-fire violations and infiltration attempts since he took over as the army chief. He would serve his nation better if he realised that the real threat to Pakistan’s survival does not emanate from India – the enemy lies within.
Pakistan’s Collapsing Internal Security
The deteriorating internal security environment in Pakistan has gradually morphed into the country’s foremost national security threat. The Pakistan army has been battling the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in North Waziristan since mid-June 2014 with only limited success. The Al Qaeda has been quietly making inroads into Pakistani terrorist organisations like the Lashkar-e-Tayebba (LeT), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Harkat-ul-Jihad Al-Islami (HuJI), Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ). Recently, Ayman Al-Zawahari, the Al Qaeda Chief, announced the launch of a new wing in South Asia, to be based in Pakistan.
Fissiparous tendencies in Balochistan and the restive Gilgit-Baltistan Northern Areas are a perpetual security nightmare. Karachi is a tinderbox that is ready to explode. Sectarian violence is rampant; the minority Shia community is being especially targeted by Sunni extremists. Other minorities like the Hindus, Sikhs and Christians have also been assaulted. And, insider involvement has been reported in attacks on military establishments like the Mehran airbase and the Karachi naval dockyard.
Attempts to Regain Control
Over the last decade the Pakistan army has deployed approximately 150,000 soldiers in the Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa and FATA areas for counter-insurgency operations. It has suffered about 15,000 casualties, including 5,000 dead since 2008. The total casualties, including civilian, number almost 50,000 since 2001.
On June 15, 2014, the Pakistan army and air force launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb (sharp and cutting strike), their much delayed offensive against the TTP in North Waziristan. The operation began with air strikes and was subsequently followed up with counter-insurgency operations on the ground. Operations of the Pakistan Air Force were supplemented by US drone strikes, which were resumed after six months and caused extensive damage.
Approximately 30,000 regular soldiers of the Pakistan army are still involved in the operation. As a result of the operation, one million civilians have become refugees in their own land. The army claims to have eliminated over 1,000 terrorists, a large number of them foreign terrorists. Most of the others have escaped across the border into Afghanistan.
Duplicitous Policies
Though General Sharif has said that the present operation is aimed at eliminating “all terrorists and their sanctuaries” in North Waziristan, no strikes have been launched against the Haqqani network and two other militant groups that have been primarily targeting the NATO/ ISAF forces and the Afghan National Army (ANA) – the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group and the Mullah Nazir group. These three groups are called the “good Taliban” by the Pakistan army and the ISI and are looked upon as “strategic assets” to influence events in Afghanistan now that the NATO/ ISAF draw down has been completed. The Haqqani network has also been employed to target Indian assets in Afghanistan.
Creeping Talibanisation and radical extremism are threatening Pakistan’s sovereignty. If the Pakistan army fails to conclusively eliminate the scourge in the north-west, it will soon reach Punjab, which has been relatively free of major incidents of violence. After that, it will only be a matter of time before the terrorist organisations manage to push the extremists across the Radcliffe Line into India – first ideologically and then physically. It is in India’s interest for the Pakistan government to succeed in its fight against radical extremism, or else India may have to fight the Taliban at the Atari-Wagah border.
The Pakistan army must substantively augment its capacity to conduct effective counter-insurgency operations. The ‘deep state’ must give up its agenda of seeking strategic depth in Afghanistan, discontinue further attempts to destabilise India through its failed proxy war and stop meddling in Pakistan’s politics. The Pakistan army and the ISI must concentrate on fighting the enemy within, rather than frittering away energy and resources on destabilising neighbouring countries.
(The writer is former Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi)
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