The phrase “May you live in interesting times” sounds like a blessing, but in its native Chinese, it is actually a lament. Living in peaceful, “uninteresting” times is a blessing compared to the “interesting times” filled with turbulence, war, and other mayhem.
The last few years have indeed been “interesting times.” We had COVID, the Russia-Ukraine war, the economic turbulence that has been piled on with the Israel-Hamas war of 2023, and forgotten by people elsewhere in the world — civil wars in Congo, Sudan, Mali, and Ethiopia.
We in India should be thankful that we have not been directly touched by any of them, though the recent incidents of drone attacks on ships off India have become a matter of concern. But whether it is the Ukraine-Russia or Israel-Hamas wars, it has compelled us to walk a difficult tightrope.
Elections Around the World in 2024
The key feature of 2024 will be elections — in India, as well as its most important partner, the United States (US). Elections are also due in Russia and dozens of other countries, but what will be important for us is the outcome in the US (since Modi is likely to win easily in India), and the polls in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Bhutan.
The danger of a Trump victory is more about his chaotic style rather than the fact of his election. Both the Democrats and Republicans are committed to close relations with New Delhi.
As for Pakistan, the outcome has to be factored in with other issues like the attitude of the all-powerful Army and its tangled domestic polity. The return of Nawaz Sharif could offer opportunities for India, considering the chemistry between him and Modi.
The election result in Bhutan could mark a shift in the speed of the China-Bhutan negotiations over their border and their relationship which could have consequences for India. While the outcome of the Bangladesh election is a foregone conclusion, the election boycott by the main Opposition party, the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), is bound to have negative side effects on India-Bangladesh ties.
India's 'Multi-alignment'
The key feature of India’s foreign policy in 2023, which it is likely to retain in the coming year, is 'multi-alignment', sometimes called 'non-alignment'. Relations with the US have been enhanced, and a year-end visit by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Russia suggests that ties have been shored up with Moscow as well. At the same time, India has reached out to France to invite President Emmanuel Macron to be the chief guest on Republic Day 2024.
In 2023, the government used the opportunity of the rotational presidency of the Group of Twenty (G20) to display foreign policy as a celebration of an India that has arrived. The Modi government’s massive investment in celebrating and promoting it around the country was without doubt with domestic political ends in mind.
The G20 presidency was viewed as part of the leadership role New Delhi is now playing within the Global South. But it remains to be seen just how this plays out in the coming year when India functions as an ordinary member of the group.
Responding to an MP’s question in the Rajya Sabha on 3 August 2023, as to whether there had been any special achievements of Indian foreign policy, the MEA responded, “India’s foreign policy has chartered a path that enhances its strength, protects its core interests, and ensures India’s continued upward trajectory as a fast-growing and inclusive economy with a rising profile in global affairs.”
Defence and Technology
Even so, there have been significant developments with portents for the future. Among these was Modi's visit to the US in June followed by Biden’s visit to India in September. In sum, the visits led to several significant advances in US-India ties in a range of areas, especially defence technology related to fighter jet engines.
The transfer of technology will be a major factor in this relationship. Besides collaboration in semiconductors, the two nations will develop a partnership on critical minerals, advanced telecom, space, quantum technology, and AI.
New Delhi is wary of any larger commitment to US defence plans, especially with respect to China. This was evident in its response to the proposal mooted in May by the US House Select Committee on Strategic Competition led by Congressman Mike Gallagher that India be offered a membership in the NATO Plus 5 grouping. However, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar categorically rejected the idea. “NATO template does not apply to India,” he said.
An important adjunct to the US relationship was India’s participation in the US-led initiative for an India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor that would link UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with European ports. The ongoing Israel-Hamas plans will put a crimp on this initiative, especially if in the coming months pressure grows on Arab countries to reassess moves to normalise ties with Israel.
Relations With the US and France
The limits of India's ties with the US were revealed in the episode relating to the scuppering of an allegedly Indian plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American Sikh supporter of Khalistan. While politics will ensure that the fallout of this is limited, the unfolding of the US legal process against Nikhil Gupta, the alleged kingpin of the plot, could open up a can of worms in 2024.
Given the asymmetry between India and the US, and the latter’s tendency to use issues of human rights and democracy to push its policy, there is always a need for care while dealing with the US. The Indian relationship is unique since the US is not a security provider to India. But in the context of the rising tide of Chinese military and diplomatic power, India needs a heavy-duty “partnership” with the US to balance ties with Beijing.
In 2023, India cemented its relations with two key partners — France and the UAE — by entering into a trilateral arrangement with them. India’s relationship with France has stood the test of time and the one with the UAE is perhaps the strongest it has in the Saudi peninsula. With the trilateral, it is seeking to synergise the process.
An outcome of this was the first-ever trilateral Maritime Partnership Exercise in June 2023 in the Gulf of Oman. India’s cooperation with the US military in the western Indian Ocean is not particularly significant. By partnering with France and UAE, India has been able to enhance its footprint in the region.
With Macron’s visit in 2024, the Indo-French relationship will get a further boost. For India, ties with France are an important means of hedging the US relationship. France is certainly less preachy or restrictive in exporting its military technology.
Currently, India and France are looking at the possibility of importing 26 maritime versions of Rafale fighter jets to operate on Indian aircraft carriers, as well as another three Scorpene-type submarines, along with working together in producing fighter and helicopter jet engines.
And Finally, China
The one big imponderable for India is its ties with China. There has been little movement in 2023. Ties are frozen in a Cold War-type situation since the Chinese blockaded Indian patrol points in eastern Ladakh in 2020.
There was a “candid and in-depth exchange of views” between Modi and Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the BRICS summit, but that’s about all. There has been no further action by Beijing to restore the status quo ante in Ladakh.
China remains India’s most formidable challenge in 2024. Its actions will be most felt in our immediate neighbourhood—Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. It will take considerable patience and effort to check its moves that are aimed at containing India.
India and China are both vying for the leadership of the Global South and are members of organisations like the SCO and BRICS. The latter will have six new members in 2024 —Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE — which are bound to change the dynamics of the organisation in the coming year.
The coming year will have its black swan events that no one can forecast. But there are also grey rhinos ahead — obstacles that you can see and are obvious and yet we crash into them. As of now, things are going smoothly and the government has a spring in its step.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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