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2024 is set to be the mother of all election years, with more than 40 countries set to head for polls over the year.
Indians aside, people in Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Africa, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela, and close to nine nations from Europe will exercise their right to vote. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, too, has signaled that elections in the UK are likely to be called sometime in 2024.
While more than half of the world's population participating in elections in their respective countries next year, The Quint decodes why some of these are predicted to be consequential not just to the country in question, but to India as well (apart from the Indian general elections in May 2024).
Needless to add, they come at a time when multiple global conflicts rage on, such as those in Gaza and Ukraine, and many nations remain at a crossroads regarding critical issues like their economy, public welfare, democratic backsliding, corruption, and domestic conflict.
United States
One of the most anticipated foreign elections for New Delhi, and all Indians, would be the US elections slated to take place in November 2024. Not only are multiple Indian-origin candidates in the fray, including the likes of Republicans Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley, but also 2023 has proved to be a trying year for ties between India and the US.
In June this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited New York and Washington for a three-day State visit which included at least three meetings with US President Joe Biden and an address to members of the US Congress, and saw the two countries also elevate ties to a ‘Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.’
PM Modi also hosted Biden during the G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi in September 2023 where the pair reaffirmed ties.
However, choppy waters approached following Canada's allegations of India’s involvement in the murder of Khalistani Tiger Force chief Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia, and more recent allegations of a foiled, “Indian government employee-directed” plot to murder Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on the US soil.
In his interview with The Financial Times, Modi said that the bilateral relationship was “broader in engagement, deeper in understanding, warmer in friendship than ever before” and a “few incidents” shouldn’t be seen as defining the relationship.
Even a change in US leadership will bring nary change in the partnership, given that former US President Donald Trump’s friendship with PM Modi and India.
Not only did Trump visit India in 2020, but he importantly pardoned sanctioning New Delhi over its defence ties with Russia, while holding other nations accountable.
Pakistan
In Pakistan, recent events have disrupted the anticipated electoral process. Former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in August 2023 called for the dissolution of Pakistan's Parliament, but the country's Election Commission opted to postpone the election, finalising the date as 8 February 2024.
The winner of the contest between the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)’s Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistan People’s Party’s Bilawal Bhutto, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s Imran Khan will have the task of leading the nation through an unprecedented economic crisis, rising gas and electricity prices, and also attempt to maintain political stability and domestic peace, given the rising number of terror attacks within Pakistan.
For India, ties with Islamabad are in stalemate.
Though New Delhi recently issued over 100 visas to Pakistani pilgrims to attend the Nizamuddin Urs, and Sikh pilgrimage to sites in Pakistan continues, there is hardly any interaction at the political level. The G20 summit in Srinagar during May 2023 was successfully held despite Pakistan’s objection.
“India’s position has remained clear and consistent. We desire normal neighbourly relations with Pakistan in a conducive atmosphere that is free of terror, hostility, and violence,” MEA spokesman Arindam Bagchi noted at a press briefing in January 2023.
Given the current state of bilateral ties, it is difficult to predict when India and Pakistan might be able to meaningfully engage, assuming such an event comes about in the first place.
For Islamabad, a change in leadership to the likes of Bilawal Bhutto may bring-about more fiery public comments regarding ties with India and its leadership, as opposed to his rival Nawaz Sharif’s recent comments, which emphasise the need for “good ties” with India.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh is one of the first nations set to go to elections in 2024, with polls slated to take place on 7 January. For India, Bangladesh’s elections are an important event not only because Bangladesh shares borders with five Indian states and that the country is an important diplomatic and security partner, but because India and its allies are backing rival political parties.
While India has expressed support for incumbent PM Sheikh Hasina and her Awami Lague, who want to conduct free elections, the US is reportedly backing the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami – the party pushing for elections under a caretaker government.
Moreover, China, supported by Russia, has also presented its purported stake in the election, though echoing India’s call for free elections.
New Delhi’s stake is articulated by journalist SNM Abdi in a previous article for The Quint, wherein he noted:
“There is no doubt that India is on a very good wicket in Bangladesh and will ultimately have the last laugh. But relentless American pressure on Dhaka poses the danger of driving Hasina into China’s arms. And a Bangladesh that’s indebted to China is good for neither New Delhi nor Washington. For five long years, both India and the US will have to taste the fruit of what Washington is now sowing in Bangladesh.
Russia (and Ukraine)
Given how intertwined both Russia and Ukraine are at the moment, this section will cover elections in both nations.
According to Ukraine's constitution, the presidential elections are slated for 31 March 2024. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered martial law as of 24 February 2022, leading to a legal prohibition on conducting elections during this period, as outlined in the Ukrainian law.
Meanwhile in Russia, incumbent Vladimir Putin has remained in control of most levers of power within the country, and with constitutional provisions restricting more than two consecutive terms out of the way, the 71-year-old will cruise to a new six-year term, not just according to this supporters, but also his opponents.
Putin’s best-known opponent Alexei Navalny serving a combined 30-year prison sentence, and recently surfaced in a prison north of the Arctic Circle after losing touch with his lawyers.
Given India’s concrete stance of supporting the end to hostilities in Ukraine and questioned-but-unapologetic purchases of oil from Russia, little is set to change for India regardless of general elections in both countries.
Taiwan
The upcoming presidential race in Taiwan, featuring three former mayors vying for the position, holds immense global geopolitical significance. Despite both nations not maintaining official diplomatic relations, India and Taiwan have bilateral relations.
With President Tsai Ing-Wen concluding her second term and ineligible for a re-election, the focus is on her potential successor, Vice President Lai Ching-te, a fellow member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the favourite in betting circles. Lai Ching-te previously held the position of Tainan's mayor.
Competing against Lai are the Kuomintang (KMT) Party and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP).
China ceased official communications with the DPP following current President Tsai's 2016 victory and the party's proactive stance with regards to Taiwan's defense forces and aligning closer with the US, which has only escalated tensions.
Beijing has exercised relative restraint in its dealings with Taiwan ahead of the election. However, the situation could shift should Lai ascend to the presidency, potentially altering Beijing's approach towards Taiwan.
In such a scenario, India’s approach to Taiwan must be different than that applied for the conflict in Ukraine, given the expectations of the US and greater QUAD to pick a defined side.
“If India sits the conflict out, it would be foolhardy to expect any assistance from its Western partners. Even if China fails to annex Taiwan and suffers a military defeat, the danger for India will linger,” noted ORF’s Vice President (Studies and Foreign Policy) Professor Harsh V Pant and research fellow Yogesh Joshi.
European Parliament
The European Union's (EU) parliament is commonly considered weaker then the Union itself, but the body holds a significant authority i.e. the ultimate decision-making power in selecting the new president of the European Commission, which stands as the EU's primary powerhouse.
In the upcoming elections in June 2024, citizens from the EU's 27 member states will elect 720 parliamentarians to serve from 2024 to 2029. Each member country conducts its own elections to choose its representatives.
With more than 400 million eligible voters, the EU parliamentary election stands as the world's second-largest after India's national election.
However, a pivotal question revolves around the potential rise in influence of right populist politicians within the EU parliament, mirroring recent trends seen in some national parliamentary elections in Italy and the Netherlands. The long-standing dominance of the European People's Party in the European Parliament has begun to exhibit a shift towards the right.
On the line: further aid to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia (already the subject of vetoes from Hungary and Slovakia), curbs on immigration, rollbacks on climate controls, justice and the rule of law across the EU, and a shift on how Europe deals with China.
Since incumbent Ursula Von Der Leyen has not confirmed whether she wishes to run and interest from right-leaning, conservative leaders increases, issues such as aid to Ukraine, immigration curbs, rule of law and Europe’s equation with China are all on the line.
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