A Third World War, originating (yet again) in Europe? A famine in Afghanistan? Or a war in the Asia-Pacific between the world's two richest countries?
Whether it's wars, coups, or famines, the year 2021 was a tumultuous one for many nations across the face of the earth, the effects of which will reverberate throughout 2022.
There are, however, six such crises, which upon further escalation, may have devastating national, regional, or even global effects. They are not concentrated in one continent, nor are they characterised by one specific factor. We take you through each of them.
Famine in Afghanistan
A war-torn Afghanistan is in the midst of a humanitarian catastrophe. In 2022, not only do the Afghan people face widespread famine during the upcoming winter, but the economic cost of the collapse of the country's banking system, in the words of the UNDP, "would be colossal."
As United States President Joe Biden withdrew American troops from the country, the Taliban emerged victorious from a war that lasted two whole decades, thereby resurrecting the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan that once existed between 1996 and 2001.
The rights and liberties of many groups of people are under threat, such as the Shiites, whom the Taliban regime has vowed to protect from the barbaric terrorist attacks carried out by the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP), an offshoot of ISIS.
Women, however, are facing the most immediate loss to their liberties, the most recent one being a ban on travelling long distances unless accompanied by a close male guardian.
Education and employment for women are now a distant dream, despite the Taliban promising otherwise to the international community.
The United Nations has announced that it will launch a fundraising drive for $4.4 billion to provide food, shelter, and other basic amenities to the Afghan people.
WWIII Over Ukraine?
Nothing is quiet on the eastern front.
If a war erupts next year, it would most likely be centred around Ukraine, a small country in Eastern Europe led by Volodymyr Zelensky that refuses to be bullied by Vladimir Putin's Russia.
US intelligence has issued multiple warnings that the Russians are intending to launch a multi-front offensive as early as 2022 that could see a deployment of up to 1,75,000 soldiers.
Having already taken de facto control of the Crimean peninsula, and the eastern region of Donbas (the administrative units of Donetsk and Luhansk) since 2014, Putin clearly has an expansionist agenda concerning Ukraine.
The justification being provided by Russia's supreme leader is that he cannot, for the sake of his country's security, allow the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization vis-à-vis Ukraine, something which the European Union and the US categorically deny doing in the first place.
Putin's critics, however, both domestic and international, claim that he is trying to deflect attention from his government's shambolic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with Russia witnessing more than a thousand COVID deaths per day for quite some time.
US President Joe Biden has promised to send troops to aid NATO's eastern forces, and has threatened to impose severe economic sanctions on Moscow.
Will the sanctions deter the Russians? Can talks prevail? Or are we rapidly moving towards an apocalyptic war that could break out as early as 2022?
Will China Invade Taiwan?
If a world war doesn't break out over Ukraine, the risk of that happening elsewhere doesn't cease to exist, such as in the Asia-Pacific.
China's supreme leader Xi Jinping has continued to employ an aggressive and hostile policy towards Taiwan in what seems to be an essential component of China's "Great Rejuvenation Project."
While a majority of Taiwanese people feel that they belong to a de facto independent nation that is separate from Mainland China, the latter (especially its administration, the Communist Party of China) vehemently disagrees, accusing the island of being nothing more than a breakaway province.
A few months ago, China sent around 150 aircraft over Taiwan's air defence zone in a show of force that has led experts and analysts to remark that the likelihood of war in 2022 is higher than ever.
The US policy on the cross-strait dispute has, for most of history, sided with Taiwan.
President Joe Biden has repeatedly announced that his administration will stand with Taiwan's democracy, which is currently being governed by Tsai Ing-wen.
Taiwan was also invited to Biden's Summit for Democracy, a conference "to renew democracy at home and confront autocracies abroad", even as US arms sales to Taiwan continue speedily.
With the US firmly by Taiwan's side, any military action initiated by the Chinese will inevitably draw in the Americans in what could blow up to be a devastating conflict between the world's two largest economies.
Myanmar's Future in the Balance
As pro-democracy protests refuse to subside in Myanmar, the Burmese military – the Tatmadaw – continues its brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters.
The country witnessed one of the most shocking coup d'états of 2021 in the month of February, when the civilian government led by State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi was overthrown and members of her party – the National League for Democracy (NLD) – along with her, were detained.
Despite a Burmese court halving Suu Kyi's initial four-year prison sentence on charges ranging from violation of COVID regulations to mishandling of secret information that could aid an enemy, the Burmese people are not backing down.
Thousands, including children, have been murdered by the Tatmadaw, and more than 10,000 have been beaten up or arrested.
The military is showing no interest in reinstallation of democracy.
As we go into 2022, Myanmar has a precarious future ahead. Will international coercion lead to the restoration of the country's democracy and the release of the controversial Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi?
Or is Myanmar backpedaling to the days during which it was ruled by an authoritative military junta?
An End to War in Ethiopia?
Even as we get reports of the Tigrayan rebels retreating, the ethnic civil war in Ethiopia that has been raging for more than a year seems far from over.
Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning prime minister, has been leading the Ethiopian National Defense Force from the front in the battlefield.
He is also accused of presiding over the mass murder and rape of Tigrayans by the ENDF troops, and of executing a blockade of medical and supplies aid into the Tigray region, a policy that has created the conditions for a famine that could impact millions of people.
International calls for peace and ceasefires have been ignored by the belligerents, more so by the Ahmed regime.
The US has stated that "there is no military solution" to the civil war, while the UN and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres have called for a swift end to hostilities.
With millions on the brink of starvation and in dire need of medical aid, only time will tell whether the retreat by the Tigray People's Liberation Front will lead to a de-escalation in the war.
Civil-Military Rule in Sudan
Despite the restoration of civil-military rule in Sudan after the October coup that temporarily ousted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, pro-democracy protests continue to rock the Northeast African country.
After the deposition of Omar al-Bashir in 2018, the dictator who had ruled Sudan for almost three decades, power-sharing arrangements were made between the military and the pro-democracy movement to form a collective head of state called the Sovereign Council of Sudan, which would consist of both military and civilian members.
The military, however, overthrew the civil-military government a few weeks ago and detained Hamdok and members of his cabinet, leading to widespread protests that were responded to with utmost brutality.
Finally, on 21 November, Hamdok was reinstated as the prime minister but both civil-military tensions and pro-democracy protests continue to persist.
Will an uneasy peace prevail, or will Sudan plunge into yet another civil war in 2022?
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