The question now is whether the INSTC can be built.
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While Russia and Iran don’t always concur, their status as pariahs of the West has pushed them to work as an “axis of the sanctioned.” One way this has materialized is through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-kilometer network of road, rail, and shipping routes designed to move freight between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe.
A problem for strategic planners on both sides is that the trade corridor would pass through Azerbaijan – which the Islamic Republic has threatened to destroy.
Indeed, relations between the neighboring Shia nations have grown tense in recent months, as both countries have held military drills along the Aras River, which separates Iran from Azerbaijan and Armenia.
And yet, pragmatism may nonetheless prevail. In September, Iran’s foreign ministry called the INSTC “crucial” for regional economic activity, and this month, following a tripartite meeting in Turkey, Iranian Parliament Speaker Muhammed Bakir Kalibaf said “some misunderstandings with the Republic of Azerbaijan have …disappeared recently.”
Once operational, “15 million to 30 million tons of cargo can be transported from the territory of Azerbaijan through the [INSTC] alone,” Aliyev said.
Moscow and Tehran have committed significant resources to making the transport corridor a reality.
Officials recently discussed completion of the Astara-Rasht-Qazvin railway, a transport corridor that will connect existing railways of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran to the INSTC. Overall, Moscow and Tehran plan to invest as much as $25 billion in the regional network.
Some aspects of the project are already moving.
Russia and Iran have also discussed the creation of a transport-logistics hub in Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, while the topic of Caspian Sea cooperation was on the agenda for a meeting this week between the countries’ foreign ministers.
Moscow likely views a land link with Iran as a better investment – given that Western countries control most major sea routes and have imposed restrictions on Russian ships.
If completed, the INSTC would help Russian and Iranian companies reorient to eastern markets, circumventing some of the sanctions that are strangling their operations.
But creating a new transport route is far from guaranteed; there are plenty of obstacles that continue to stand in the way of an operational corridor.
For starters, it remains uncertain whether Russia, despite being one of the major protagonists, can guarantee security on its section of the transportation route.
If Moscow loses in Ukraine, separatist tendencies in Dagestan, where ethnic Russians make up only 3.6 percent of the population, will undoubtedly grow, impacting the fate of the INSTC.
Second, given the current geopolitical circumstances, it’s unlikely that European nations will use Russia and Iran as transit routes to India. In a similar vein, the successful functioning of the INSTC would depend on whether Asian countries, namely India and the Gulf states, would agree to do any serious business along transit hubs managed by Russia and Iran.
Third, it will take time to build the necessary transport infrastructure, and it’s unclear whether Moscow, struggling with Western sanctions and bogged down in Ukraine, has the capacity to complete such ambitious projects.
Finally, the United States and its allies can always find new ways to prevent Moscow and Tehran from completing their endeavor – through more sanctions, sabotage, or other means.
While a trade route to bypass Western sanctions will remain high on agendas in Moscow and Tehran, for now, the INSTC appears more aspirational than possible.
(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same. This article was published in an arrangement with Syndication Bureau.)
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