'Global South Needs Success at COP30': India’s Climate Strategy in China-Led Era

As Donald Trump’s absence at COP30 leaves space for China, what hurdles lie ahead for India?

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

"Whether we like it or not, if the US is seen as a 'disruptor' and the EU [European Union] is not really there, it gives the Chinese space. The least you can do is for the world to see you by their sight," says Manjeev Singh Puri, former lead negotiator for India at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

"It is important for our global standing, especially within the Global South. That’s the nature of COPs—they are like power games," Puri, who's also a former Indian Ambassador to the EU, tells The Quint.

A heavyweight in climate diplomacy, India has long led the charge for climate justice at the annual UN climate summits. It has consistently pushed for more accountability from Global North countries, arguing that historical emissions require more transfer of money and technology from them. "They were also one of the only countries that put forward an official estimate for the climate needs at COP29," Pooja Vijay Ramamurthi, Fellow, the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), tells The Quint.

But, as COP30 commences in Belém, Brazil on Monday, 10 November—with UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell urging countries that "your job here is not to fight one another; your job is to fight this climate crisis together"—India faces the same turbulent geopolitical headwinds shaping the summit. Especially so, as the US' absence has elevated China’s role as a leading climate actor.

"China is on track to be the global hegemon. If the Global South has to choose between India or China as its leader, the answer is known already," says Sanjeev Ahluwalia, Distinguished Fellow at independent think tank, Chintan Research Foundation.

"We should avoid trying to measure up because we can't. But, for the next three decades, India has to steadfastly build itself into a global leader."

Sanjeev Ahluwalia

At the same time, India, like most other countries, missed the deadline for submitting its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

The Complexity of an 'Implementation' COP

Climate observers expect the dynamics at COP30 to be different from the last. "We saw more divide between developed and developing countries at COP29 because it was a ‘finance’ COP,” says one climate observer on condition of anonymity, implying that a new climate finance goal had to be agreed upon for the upcoming decade. But, they add,

“COP30 instead will be a new era of 'implementation' of climate action.”

In Belém, negotiations are expected to focus on ensuring delivery of the $300 billion climate finance commitment, forging a global consensus around adaptation indicators, and advancing just transition, among other key priorities.

But a lot will depend on “enhanced international cooperation", as the recently released 'Baku to Belém Roadmap' by the Azerbaijani and Brazilian presidencies explicitly stated—something that won't be easy to achieve amid geopolitical and climate interplay.

For one, as of Monday, 10 November, the US had still not registered a formal delegation at COP30, The Quint has learnt. Although Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement, the US hasn’t pulled out of the UNFCCC itself—and even the Paris Agreement withdrawal is still to come into effect. This leaves open the possibility of a last‑minute entry.

Yet, experts warn that Trump could play a disruptor at COP30—whether or not it attends the summit. “That the climate change negotiations are in reality about limiting the use of fossil fuels, which remain the bulwark of economic power, means that in his scheme, the US will not allow itself to be limited to lose the fossil fuel advantages it enjoys. Alternatively, he recognises the fossil fuel bonanza to only have a limited time and sees no reason to give it up before alternative technologies and fuels tip the economic balance,” explains Puri.

"At a recent IMO [International Maritime Organisation] meeting, the US even went to the extent of browbeating countries not to agree to targets," Puri says, referring to the US warning retaliatory sanctions against the IMO's member countries who were in favour of moving the shipping industry away from the use of fossil fuel and become net zero by 2050.

A Seat at the Global High Table

Making matters worse, the EU has scaled back its climate ambitions, while calls grow to dismantle the COP process, and replace consensus with voting-based decision-making.

Despite all the challenges, experts tell The Quint, "The Global South needs success at Belém, including ensuring that climate negotiations continue in a multilateral framework."

“Global collaboration gives you a kind of legitimacy. That matters to a country like India which is driving to climb the global high table,” explains Puri. At COP29 in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku, India was one of the first countries to strongly denounce the climate finance goal of $300 billion deal per year. Following India's sharp rebuke, Bolivia, Nigeria, and Cuba had followed suit by effectively rejecting the deal, boosting India's position in the Global South.

“That we must make every effort to push for climate finance, and that we must be seen to be pushing for it, is critical for India's standing in the Global South. Under no circumstances, we should contribute to a breakup. If anything, band-aid it and carry on."

Manjeev Singh Puri

Ahluwalia, however, cautions, "The truth is, one cannot project what one is not. What did Trump get by projecting the US as the global hegemon? Ultimately, he had to back down against a firm China."

"India can [instead] substantively project its democratic credentials, and remember, democracy is the bedrock of equity which is a matter of deep concern in climate negotiations. China does not have that privilege," he says.

"India can [also] legitimately claim a history of collaboration with the Global South, but does it still value being a big fish in a small pond versus being a small fish amid whales? Recent attempts have been made to join the big boys at the high table."

Harjeet Singh, a climate activist and Founding Director, Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, had earlier told The Quint that India and China must overcome their economic and political rivalry to "leverage their shared interest in climate justice".

Singh had added, "Inside [COP's] negotiating halls, China and India are often powerful allies who rightfully argue that the Global North owes a massive climate debt. Outside those halls, they are strategic competitors, and this deep mistrust can be easily exploited by developed nations to fracture the Global South's position."

It is important to note that both India and China will not be represented by their top leaders at COP30. Instead, India’s Ambassador to Brazil, Dinesh Bhatia, and Environment Minister Bhupendra Yadav, and Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexian will be the faces of the two countries, respectively.

Ramamurthi, meanwhile, points out that "there are many other actors for India to engage with productively within the Global North."

"Clean energy was a small portfolio of India’s engagement with the US," she says, adding India has partnered with France, leading to the formation of the International Solar Alliance, as well as struck multiple initiatives with Germany.

"India and Japan also signed a deal to address climate change, including carbon markets. And Canada and Australia can become key partners to provide critical minerals required for the transition," says Ramamurthi.

India’s Scorecard

Although India has yet to announce its NDCs, The Quint has learnt that consultations are underway. However, there is still no clarity on when they will be finalised.

"Considering that India has met most of the previous NDC targets, I’m unsure why there is hesitation to announce its targets. I think a strong and positive signal, especially to the Global South, can be sent by announcing its NDCs, as India is more than capable of meeting any green targets it sets its mind to."

Pooja Vijay Ramamurthi, Fellow, CSEP

According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)'s Emission Gap Report, India led the world in terms of absolute growth as compared to the previous year in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024. However, its per capita emissions and historical contributions to global warming are much smaller.

Speaking at the Leaders’ Summit of the COP30, India's Ambassador Bhatia on 8 November highlighted that between 2005 and 2020, India reduced the emission intensity of its GDP by 36 percent. He also noted that non-fossil power now accounts for over 50 percent of the country's installed capacity.

"India can position itself as a credible alternative to the US and China by aggressively scaling up its renewable energy ambitions, such as achieving 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030," Dr Sriparna Pathak, a professor of China studies at OP Jindal Global University, tells The Quint.

She adds that will help "demonstrate practical leadership in guiding emerging economies" even as India advances equity-driven climate diplomacy at COP30 and beyond.

Climate experts, meanwhile, point out the hurdles that lie ahead of India, especially in achieving its target of net-zero emissions by 2070 which, Ahluwalia calls "a pledge in keeping with India's big fish, small pond syndrome."

Ramamurthi explains, "The biggest challenge is the power sector. Despite tremendous growth in renewables, India remains heavily dependent on coal-based power to meet its electricity needs."

India also faces other sector-specific challenges, such as decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors, scaling up electric mobility and charging infrastructure, advancing sustainable urban planning, and expanding green cover and carbon sinks.

India must also balance development, including economic growth and poverty reduction, with the urgent need to accelerate climate action, where adaptation is as vital as mitigation.

The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025 recently highlighted that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries by 2035 are at least 12 times as much as current adaptation finance flows.

"India will need over $10 trillion to reach net zero by 2070. Domestic resources alone cannot meet this scale of investment. Mobilising concessional finance, climate investments, and innovative instruments will be crucial, alongside predictable and adequate international climate finance flows that reflect the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'," says Mini Maurya Rehan, Senior Expert (Climate Policy and Partnerships), Climate Change Hub at WWF-India.

India and BRICS

The intersection of climate and trade has become another major issue at COP30, with many in the Global South seeing climate-related trade actions such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as disguised non-tariff barriers that undermine the principle of "differentiated responsibilities". CBAM is a carbon tariff system on imported carbon-intensive goods like steel and cement.

"As of now, the developing world is cagey. But we have to fight our own battles. The Chinese and the EU may come around. Given the Brazilian presidency is pushing for it, and the key imperative for some success at Belém, it would appear useful for the BRICS to join the conversations while negotiating guardrails to safeguard their development imperatives," suggests Puri.

The involvement of BRICS, as the largest countries in the Global South, also has "additional geopolitical utility to stymie the Chinese assuming global leadership on climate change," he adds.

Apart from its net-zero goal and navigating China, a collaborative global action on climate change is central to India’s pursuit of its goal of achieving 'Viksit Bharat' by 2047, and its interest in hosting COP in 2028, alongside its upcoming BRICS Presidency in 2026.

"For doing that, we must focus our energy on real milestones on that path—poverty alleviation, gender empowerment, deepening democracy, protecting habitats, growing the industrial base, and planned urbanisation," says Ahluwalia.

"We should aim for technical leadership tempered by morality. Our time will come," he concludes.

(The Quint has reached out to India's Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Renewable Energy. The article will be updated as and when they respond. The Quint had also reached out to Dinesh Bhatia who requested to contact the ministry.)