From Trump's 'Con Job' Claim to EU Rift, COP30 Won’t Be Easy in a Tipping World
Ever since his return to power, Donald Trump has taken every possible step to thwart climate action.
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This is part of The Quint’s COP30 coverage to help make sense of the crucial climate talks. Become a member to support us.
Donald Trump's barbs against climate change in his 57-minute-long speech at the UN General Assembly should hardly come as a surprise. During his first term, the US President spent a lot of time denying the well-established science that explains how fossil fuels have been accelerating global warming. And, ever since his return to power in January 2025, Trump has taken aggressive steps to make climate denialism an official policy.
With less than two months before nearly 200 world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil for the year’s biggest climate summit, Trump's speech has thrown a spanner in the works.
At a time of fractured geopolitics, the mood was already charged with urgency and uncertainty. In this explainer, The Quint explores how the US, and three other biggest players—China, the Global South, and the European Union (EU)—are doing their part (or not) in making COP30 a "success".
Setting the Stage: The Context Going into COP30
Ask any regular COP attendee, and they will likely tell you the stakes have never been higher. There are three key aspects to understand here.
Largest Emitters Still Stalling on Pledges
Under the Paris Agreement, signed a decade ago, every country committed to submitting an official plan every five years—called nationally determined contributions (NDCs)—for reducing emissions and tackling global warming.
Yet, with just two months remaining before the climate summit, major emitters—including the EU and India—have still not submitted their updated targets. Despite already missing the initial February 2025 deadline, only 30 countries have submitted their NDCs so far.
Climate Finance
The second aspect is climate finance.
The funding gap remains a major point of contention heading into COP30.
“We are in a very difficult moment for climate finance. The US has already cut its ODA (official development assistance) in 2025, and sub-Saharan Africa and other least developed countries will be hit the hardest, especially in health and education sectors," an expert, who did not want to be named, tells The Quint. ODA is the aid provided by developed countries to support the economic development and welfare of developing nations.
At the same time, many countries are under pressure from the US to increase defence spending over climate finance, they add.
Calls for Reform in UN Climate Talks
There’s been a growing discourse on whether the UN climate talks itself is "broken". As it depends on a collective consensus of nearly 200 countries, it allows the least ambitious countries to block progress. The fossil fuel lobby, too, add to the injustice, they argue.
“We have been negotiating rules for many years, but now we have the rules in place. So, does the COP even play the same role?" asks the expert. Others, like Harjeet Singh, a global advocate for climate and social justice, argue that "abandoning the process isn't the answer, because it remains the only global, multilateral forum we have."
Singh, who's the Global Engagement Director at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, adds,
The Question Mark Around the US
In less than a year in office, Trump has actively shaken climate diplomacy up. Apart from backing anti-climate policies at home, he has ignited global tariff wars, signalling that, for his government, economic interests outweigh climate change.
"This time the surgery is a little deeper. Given the current US administration, it’s hard to tell whether or not this step back from the global climate agenda is a tactic to assert US exceptionalism, forcing the world to bring the US to the table, and allow President Trump to strike deals on his terms. It’s an ever-present known-unknown," Sanjeev S Ahluwalia, Distinguished Fellow at Chintan Research Foundation, tells The Quint.
Dubash, however, points out that the US stepping back from its climate commitments may not impact climate finance per se.
Although the US submitted its NDCs under the Joe Biden administration—and the current administration hasn't revoked them—questions remain about whether it will deliver on its pledges.
It's also unclear whether the US will attend COP30. This year, under the Trump presidency, the US skipped the crucial mid-year Bonn Climate Change Conference in Germany.
"This could mean that the world's largest per capita emitter of CO2 maybe absent from COP30. This will be yet another obstacle to a successful conference," explains Karen Hjulmand, a Danish journalist who covered the first-ever COP in Berlin in 1995 and has participated in several of them since.
A Slower-Than-Usual EU
The setback from the EU itself is the most unexpected. Ahead of the UN General Assembly, the 27-nation bloc met in Brussels, but failed to adopt a unified plan.
“It is clear that the climate agenda in many large European countries has become more politicised than it was five years ago, when it was almost a race to have high ambitions (for climate action),” Hjulmand explains.
Several experts The Quint spoke with hinted at the climate talks "taking a backseat" for the bloc, with global trade tensions, the war in Ukraine, increased defence spending, and the rise of right-wing parties shifting the focus away.
According to another person familiar with the discussions in Brussels, who spoke on condition of anonymity, France and Germany were playing hard to get.
China, the Saviour?
Even as the US steps back, China is assuming a leadership role with increased investment in green energy and renewable technologies.
And that has already begun with China "helping speed up the global shift" to renewable power. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit last month, China announced plans to invest in building 10 GW of solar and wind power each across SCO member-countries, including India and Pakistan, over the next five years as compared to only 1 GW of solar and 0.3 GW of wind since 2019.
On the other hand, experts cast doubt on China failing to show leadership in its climate commitments. At the UN General Assembly on 24 September, China announced a new climate target to cut emissions by 7-10 percent by 2035, far short of the 30 percent reduction that experts say is both feasible and necessary.
The Global South
The complex interplay between geopolitics and climate ambitions has left the Global South hedging between competing powers.
"Inside [COP's] negotiating halls, China and India are often powerful allies, the two giants of the G77+China bloc, who rightfully argue that the Global North owes a massive climate debt. When they stand together, their voice is formidable," Singh explains.
However, he adds, "Outside those halls, they are strategic competitors, and this deep mistrust can be easily exploited by developed nations to fracture the Global South's position."
Experts also stress the need for countries like India to "look inwards" for both investment and technology—not only to meet their climate ambitions, but for their own economic growth.
According to Alhuwalia, “The fact is that if the world continues to rely on aid for pushing the climate agenda, then we are bound to be disappointed.”
Dubash agrees, saying, "This is not to say that concerns about climate equity—including financing for loss and damage, adaptation, and the incremental costs of mitigation—are no longer relevant. But the challenge for developing countries is how to design transition policies that are good investments and will attract private capital."