At the Halfway Stage, COP30 Faces Crucial Decisions

Week one of COP30 was marked by protests, with demonstrations expected to continue into the second week.

(Photo: Joshua A Bickel)

“Ministers are already starting to arrive,” remarked UN climate chief Simon Stiell as COP30 reached its halfway point, voicing concern over whether enough groundwork had been laid for a smoother second week.

"It's important to make their job as clear as possible, by continuing crucial technical work and making progress in every session," Stiell observed on Saturday, 16 November.

Essentially, if the first week at the climate talks is about settling on which issues make it onto the agenda, the second week is about political negotiations and consensus-building at the level of government ministers and heads of state.

"The technical talks stalled because the most critical issues were intentionally 'parked' in informal consultations to avoid real negotiation," Harjeet Singh, co-founder of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, tells The Quint.

At COP30, technical discussions will now run until Tuesday, even as the "mutirão"—a joint effort—on climate action led by ministers and delegation heads begins in the second week.

Leaders attending the COP30 summit pose for a group photo in Belém, Brazil.

(Photo: Fernando Llano)

So, what key issues from the first week are now shaping negotiations as COP30 enters its second week?

The Thorns in the Path

Right after COP30 took off, Brazil managed to defuse a potential clash over the agenda itself.

COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago brokered a compromise in informal talks, and the agenda was adopted unchanged on Monday.

COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago brokered a compromise in informal talks, and the agenda was adopted unchanged on Monday.

(Photo: Fernando Llano)

But Brazil’s presidency promised to consult on four thorny issues:

• climate finance

• unilateral trade measures

• stronger emissions cuts aligned with 1.5°C

• reporting of national data on climate action

"The fact that ministers are arriving at a procedural nightmare is not an accident, but a deliberate strategy of delay by developed countries," Singh alleges to The Quint, calling these four issues "the entire fight" at COP30.

As of Saturday, Corrêa do Lago had promised to publish a "note" on Sunday, 17 November to summarise the positions of countries on these four issues. That note was awaited at the time of publishing.

Meanwhile, speaking for the the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs), India’s negotiator Suman Chandra highlighted on Saturday, 16 November that Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement—that developed countries must provide financial support to help developing nations with both mitigation and adaptation—is central to the climate talks, yet remains unaddressed.

At COP30, India has stressed that climate finance must be "predictable, additional, and free of greenwashing".

It has also criticised the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), or the $300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035, as "suboptimal", noting it lacks clear commitments from developed countries, particularly on the required balance between mitigation and adaptation funding.

Earlier this month, the COP presidencies of Azerbaijan and Brazil had released the Baku to Belém Roadmap, laying out a pathway to reach at least $1.3 trillion in climate finance by 2035.

But, as one expert summed it,

"Developing countries want to talk about climate finance, but oil-producing developing countries want to avoid talking about green transition. The developed countries who want to talk about green transition don't want to talk about money. Unless delegates begin seeking common ground, negotiations risk dragging on without real movement."

"The fact that Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement is among the four agenda items under discussion in the presidency consultations clearly shows that the provision of climate finance remains insufficiently addressed since last year’s COP. Without adequate and predictable finance, not only is the 1.5°C limit at serious risk, but vulnerable communities will face irreversible harm," says Marianne Lotz, Policy Advisor for Energy and Climate, WWF-Germany.

"Parties must continue to engage constructively to build a credible and equitable financial response to the climate crisis,” Lotz adds.

Phasing Out Fossil Fuels

After Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s speech calling for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, the first week of COP30 was marked by intense corridor discussions.

Brazil followed up with a phase-out roadmap that won backing from countries including the UK, Kenya, and Denmark, but drew strong opposition from Saudi Arabia and other oil‑producing nations, according to AFP.

For now, it remains uncertain whether fossil fuels will be addressed in the final COP30 text or instead appear in a separate declaration supported by a coalition of countries.

After Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s speech calling for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, the week has been marked by intense corridor discussions.

(Photo: Fernando Llano)

Coinciding with the summit, the Global Carbon Budget released its 2025 report, projecting fossil fuel emissions to rise by 1.1% compared to last year. With oil, gas, and coal output still climbing, global CO₂ emissions are expected to reach a record 38.1 billion tonnes.

Adding to the pressure, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)’s annual Emissions Gap Report found that none of the 60+ countries, which had submitted their climate pledges by 30 November, included targets to cut oil and gas production or phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

At the same time, Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO), an NGO coalition, claimed that 1,602 delegates linked to the oil, gas, and coal industries are attending COP in Belém—roughly one in every 25 participants. KBPO, which has tracked COP attendance since 2021, reported on Friday, 14 November that fossil fuel representatives make up 3.8 percent of those present this year, the highest proportion it has ever recorded.

Meanwhile, on the second day of COP30 in Belém, the G77 and China proposed the 'Belém Action Mechanism' for a just transition under the UNFCCC framework, advocating for a new global mechanism to support developing countries. The European Union countered with its own "Just Transition Action Plan," indicating a developing negotiation dynamic around how to achieve a fair climate transition.

Climate Adaptation

It has been 10 years since the Paris Agreement introduced the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Yet, countries still lack an agreed framework to measure progress toward that goal.

It was only at COP28 that experts were asked to draft indicators across seven areas like water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods, and culture. The first list was huge with over 9,500 indicators. That got cut to 490, and then again to a set of 100, which was shared at the Bonn meetings in June 2025. COP30 is now debating this final list.

But, in the opening week, negotiations over the adaptation indicator package have exposed deep divisions, with differences of opinion emerging within G77. The Africa Group is calling for a two‑year timeline that would push decisions to COP32. And the Latin American countries are pressing for immediate adoption.

However, experts tell The Quint that finance remains the central fault line.

"We need indicators that track the provision of new, public finance from developed countries to developing countries. Instead, the current drafts are trying to count the domestic budgets and national spending of poor countries as part of the adaptation finance contribution," says Singh.

"The Global North is trying to shift the financial responsibility onto the victims of the crisis. It is a bad-faith negotiation tactic," he adds.

Just weeks before COP30, the UNEP's Adaptation Gap Report 2025 warned that by 2035, adaptation finance needs of developing countries will be at least 12 times greater than current international public flows.

The report updated the cost of adaptation finance needed in developing countries, putting it at a minimum of $310 billion per year in 2035. Meanwhile, international public adaptation finance flows to developing countries were $26 billion in 2023, down from $28 billion the previous year.

The Paris Agreement's 1.5 Degree Global Warming Target

Another hot topic of discussion underway at COP30 is extreme heat and whether the Paris Agreement target of keeping the rise in global temperature to within 1.5°C by the end of the century is even viable anymore.

Last week, at the Leaders’ Summit, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) told heads of state that the world is now almost certain to overshoot the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

But countries are split on how this should be presented. According to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin released on 11 November, the EU backed the WMO’s update, while India and the Arab countries pushed back, arguing that the scientific body overseeing this work must avoid “alarmist” or misleading language. They opposed including references to 1.5°C overshoot in the draft text, reported the Hindustan Times.

"India's position is not in a vacuum," says Singh. "They are essentially stating that the 1.5°C target is being held hostage by developed countries who refuse to deliver on their end of the bargain—by failing to cut their own emissions and by refusing to provide the legally-obligated finance."

On the other hand, climate-vulnerable nations such as Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh stressed that keeping the 1.5°C target alive is a matter of survival. They urged stronger action and a review of 2035 NDCs to close the widening gap.

Protests and More Protests

Week one of COP30 was marked by protests, with demonstrations expected to continue into the second week.

At a press conference on 16 November, a panel of the COP30 presidency stressed that this has been “the most inclusive COP for Indigenous people.” The number of Indigenous attendees at COP30 has been pegged at 900.

These remarks came against the backdrop of one of the largest climate demonstrations in recent years. At the end of the first week, tens of thousands marched through the streets of Belém on Saturday, 15 November—with demands ranging from including "reparations" for damage caused by corporations and governments to "Protect the Amazon".

The unrest had been building all week.

On Tuesday, Indigenous demonstrators forced their way into the COP30 venue, clashing with security personnel and leaving several with minor injuries. By Friday, dozens of Indigenous protesters escalated the pressure, blocking the summit’s entrance for nearly two hours until high-level negotiators intervened to ease tensions.

Earlier, at the Leaders’ Summit last week, Brazilian President Lula had also unveiled the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), designed to reward tropical nations for keeping their forests standing. The fund requires countries to allocate 20 percent of the resources specifically to Indigenous peoples and traditional communities. So far, the fund has attracted just over $5 billion in pledges.

Brazil ultimately hopes to build this into a $125 billion facility, but experts have raised concerns about its financial design, which relies on borrowing money and investing it in global markets in hopes of generating returns for forest conservation.

"The limp fundraising response shows a growing scepticism toward market-led forest protection schemes. It also exposes how far the world remains from meeting even the $100 billion per year climate finance pledge made at Copenhagen in 2009, which itself is now considered inadequate given the $2.4 trillion annual need for climate action across the Global South as estimated by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, COP28,” Amruta S, Climate Campaigner at Greenpeace India, told The Quint.