AAP and Congress Have Common Vote Banks. Can They Sustain Alliance Beyond 2024?

The alliance of the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress party in Delhi is threatening to dent the Bharatiya Janata Party's tally of seven Lok Sabha seats in the national capital, something it achieved in both 2014 and 2019. The interim bail of Arvind Kejriwal has given a big boost to the INDIA bloc campaign with the Delhi Chief Minister, now the star campaigner, holding roadshows for both AAP and Congress candidates. The AAP hopes to gain sympathy from Kejriwal’s arrest, terming it a political vendetta and a ploy to finish the party.Many in the Congress party, however, have been wary of this alliance as there are fears that AAP could further usurp the grand old party’s vote share in the state, resulting in exits similar to Arvinder Singh Lovely, and discontent among local leaders and cadre.It's a marriage of convenience to prevent the BJP in Delhi from making a hat-trick. While the relationship appears normal from the outside, there appears to be a certain level of mistrust. Here's why.Kejriwal was the second joint preferred leader to lead the Opposition along with Mamata after Rahul Gandhi in C-Voter’s Mood of the Nation survey in February 2024. He has a knack for hogging the limelight and announced his own set of 10 guarantees after his release from jail, despite Congress releasing its own 5x5 guarantees. The AAP has national ambitions and hopes to emerge as the main challenger to the BJP if the Congress is routed for a third successive time in the 2024 elections. On the other hand, the grand old party hopes to recover some of its lost ground in Delhi to AAP and take over its vote share if the party disintegrates due to the fallout of the alleged liquor scam. The AAP contested its first election in Delhi in the 2013 state elections, making a scintillating debut with Kejriwal becoming the chief minister and Congress' support from outside. It recorded a 30% vote share in 2013 which increased to 54% in 2020. During this period, the Congress' vote share has declined from 40% to 4% (-36%) and Others' (BSP, JDU, LJP, RJD, and Independents) has declined from 24% to 4% (-20%). The BJP’s vote share during this period has remained almost flat, from 36% in 2008 to 39% in 2020. From a BJP versus Congress fight, Delhi has converted into a BJP versus AAP fight with anti-BJP votes/pro-INC votes shifting to the AAP almost completely in the national capital's assembly elections. In the 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections, AAP received 66% of the SC vote, 83% of the Muslim vote and 67% of the Sikh vote. These vote banks have been a traditional support base of the Congress party and have shifted to AAP almost in entirety as shown in the table below.Even amongst traditional support bases of the BJP, upper caste and OBCs, AAP has lapped up the Congress' support base. Dalits, Muslims and Sikhs account for one-third of Delhi's population. With more than two-thirds voting for the AAP in the Vidhan Sabha elections, this erstwhile vote bloc of the Congress provides a solid foundation for the party. In addition to this is the layer of class. The upper class and upper-middle class account for 31% of the population. The poor and lower class make up 24% of the population. The upper class and upper middle class have historically voted for BJP while lower class and the poor voted for Congress. The Congress’ vote has completely shifted to AAP.The AAP has been able to form an all-encompassing umbrella of poor and lower socio-economic classes through free water and electricity, better schools, and mohalla clinics. It has almost completely taken over the Congress party’s vote bank in state elections. However, these vote blocs are fungible and anti-BJP in nature. In Lok Sabha elections, some of these voters shift from AAP to Congress as the grand old party is better placed to take on BJP at the national level.In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when Kejriwal took on Modi in Varanasi and there was a significant anti-Congress mood across the country due to alleged corruption scams, the BJP won 46% of the vote share in Delhi, AAP got 33% and the Congress got 15%. However, in 2019, the AAP’s vote share was reduced to 18% and the Congress' increased to 23% in Delhi. The vote blocs of AAP and Congress in Delhi are complementary - Dalits, Muslims, Sikhs, poor, lower socio-economic class and women (backers of Sheila Dixit moving to AAP). In 2024, there could be a seamless transfer of votes from AAP to the Congress party and vice versa as both have anti-BJP vote banks.If AAP survives as a party to this alleged liquor scam, then it would further consolidate this support base. However, if the party disintegrates, and Kejriwal remains in jail during the 2025 state polls, some of this support may move back to the Congress.If the Congress party is routed again in Lok Sabha elections at the national level, and if AAP survives, then the party could take over from Congress in the national capital in the 2029 general elections, then the latter's 23% vote share would be at risk.AAP gained prominence in Delhi due to its anti-corruption crusade against the Congress government. This has all been forgotten by most of the leaders and cadres as they see an alliance with AAP as the only way to get back its support base, the practical way. However, some hardcore, ideological voters in Congress may not support AAP, but this number could be low, and since BJP is now the bigger enemy, they could rather abstain than vote for BJP. To sum up, it's a give-and-take alliance, a win-win for both at this juncture, to defeat the bigger enemy BJP. However, there is an undercurrent as well in this relationship which could play out in the future depending on the outcome of two key events - (i) the future of AAP if Kejriwal remains in jail for a long time and (ii) the future of the Congress party if it falls below 50 again or if BJP scores above 300 seats. (Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X (formerly Twitter). This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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AAP and Congress Have Common Vote Banks. Can They Sustain Alliance Beyond 2024?

Delhi votes tomorrow. For now, it's a marriage of convenience to prevent a BJP hat-trick in the 7 Lok Sabha seats.

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Topics: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections