Of late, observers in India have expressed growing concern regarding Russia’s continued drift toward Beijing, especially following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in late March.
For instance, former foreign secretary Shyam Saran recently opined that Russia’s vulnerable position vis-a-vis China empowers the latter to restrict the former’s engagement with India. While the possibility of such a prospect should certainly inform Indian policymakers, the issue is slightly more complex than what is highlighted.
It is true that China has emerged as Russia’s closest informal ally in the last decade following the West’s consistent effort to isolate Moscow after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in early 2022 further compelled the US and Europe to increase pressure on Russia through various sanctions.
Consequently, Russia has found itself diplomatically cornered and increasingly drifting towards China. The shared anti-American sentiment and contempt for Western values have enabled a strategic convergence between Moscow and Beijing.
Russia’s increasing economic dependence on China against the dwindling alternatives for both its exports and imports does make it vulnerable to conceding to the latter’s demands with respect to India.