On the evening of 21 December, two army vehicles belonging to the 48 Rashtriya Rifles (RR) were ambushed by militants as they were snaking through the dense forest corridor at Dhatyar Morh, which is between Dera Ki Gali and Bufliaz regions of the Poonch district.
The vehicles, which were carrying reinforcements for a search operation that had begun the previous day near Dera Ki Gali, were rounding the curve along the craggy route when it was attacked.
The attack resulted in the killing of four soldiers. Police sources on Thursday told The Quint that casualties are likely to go up because of the intensity of the ambush and that the attack was so severe that it was difficult to say if there would be any survivors.
At least two soldiers had their bodies mutilated, sources said.
The attack came just days after Union Home Minister Amit Shah unveiled a "zero terror plan" for Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in the Lok Sabha, which is likely to be implemented by 2026.
Timeline of the Attacks
36 soldiers and seven civilians have been killed in the mountainous Rajouri-Poonch area of J&K since October 2021, and more than 50 per cent of total security-related casualties in 2023 have taken place in these two heavily forested districts that are close to the Line of Control. As per police data shared with The Quint, around 85 militants have been killed in 2023, out of which 28 militants were killed in this region only. Out of 34 security personnel killings that took place this year, 20 alone occurred in these two districts.
The intensity of violence in the two districts of Rajouri and Poonch clearly signals that militant groups are expressly invested in moving the theatre of violence away from the Valley of Kashmir, and into the forests and ravines of the Jammu region. The regions of Rajouri and Poonch have seen some of the deadliest attacks this year. Just last month, five soldiers including two captains were killed in a similar attack in Kalakote.
In April, five Army Personnel with the Rashtriya Rifles (RR) unit were killed after their vehicle was attacked under similar circumstances near the Bhimber Gali area of Poonch district. This followed another big operation in the Kandi forest area of Rajouri district where army units came under an improvised explosive device blast as they were conducting a search operation.
And on New Year's Eve, militants killed seven civilians including two children in Dhangri village in Rajouri in one of the deadliest attacks in the Pir Panjal region in years. The attack triggered communal polarisation in the region, with the government restarting the controversial Village Defence Guards (VDG) programs in the area.
A New Arena of Cross-Border Violence
Previously, security forces were wary that the regions of Poonch and Rajouri were becoming a new area of interest for the militant groups across the border. But the 21 December attack has now cemented the belief that the site of insurgency has decisively shifted to the Jammu borderlands, and with its difficult terrain, it is proving to be a security nightmare.
“It is obvious that the focus has now shifted to the Jammu region which was completely calm,” Lt Gen Deependra Singh Hooda, former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Indian army’s Northern Command told The Quint.
“Whenever there is pressure somewhere (in this case in Kashmir), terrorists will contemplate where they can shift.”
Hooda said that Pakistan is trying to project the other regions of the Union Territory as just as equally troubled as Kashmir. “The government needs to look at it very seriously. It is an area that has been quiet for a long time and now you find a spurt in activity,” he said. “This particular area has much more difficult terrain than Kashmir which is flat. In Kashmir, it is easy to move around vehicles and respond quickly. That’s not possible in Jammu. These challenges have been there in the past and we did manage to calm the place down.”
A 2003 Redux?
The Poonch-Rajouri region appears to have come under the radar of militants since the major 17-day-long encounter that took place throughout October 2021.
During the operation, the security forces lost nine of their personnel while the militants managed to escape. The 2021 attack set the template for other subsequent militant operations. The militants generally take advantage of the clement terrain and dense forest cover.
“Unlike Kashmir, the higher reaches of Jammu don’t have a significant winter impact. So, the militants can move up and down across all seasons,” a senior J&K police officer explained, pleading anonymity. “In the Bhatta Durian encounter earlier this year, we found that some people from the local nomad community were involved in passing information to the militants.”
The officer said that the present situation looked like a 2003 redux when Operation Hill Kaka unfolded amid the same region.
“In that operation, around 200 to 300 militants were involved. The Indian army had to launch helicopter gunships. But only 10 to 15 militants were eventually killed. The rest moved back. We later discovered that they had buffaloes with them who they would roast and eat,” the officer added.
Foreign Mercenaries Retake The Centrestage
Senior police sources also said that the growing number of attacks in the region may also be linked to the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. “When the Taliban swept to power in 1995, there was no immediate impact in Kashmir.
But over the years, a lot of infiltration that was noticed took place in this region. That’s why the regions of Rajouri and Poonch became active during the early 2000s. Now we are clearly seeing that the terrorists involved in the operations are mostly foreign mercenaries armed with heavy weaponry,” a senior police source explained.
Last month, Lt General Upendra Dwivedi, the acting GOC Northern Command, also said that the militants of the 23 November operation in Kalakote were likely trained in Afghanistan, and “were planning to initiate terror-related activities to cause fear within the civilian population and provoke unrest in the area.”
Previously, there have been apprehensions that the escalating attacks in the Jammu region were linked to the security efforts aimed at making Kashmir secure. But former Army veterans who have served in Kashmir said that wasn’t going to happen. “What is required is that the forces must improve their intelligence in the area,” Lt Gen Hooda said. “The Army is conscious of what it needs. They are not shifting their focus from Kashmir to Jammu. I don’t think that the deployments in Kashmir will be affected because of this.”
(Shakir Mir is an independent journalist. He tweets at @shakirmir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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