With the Prime Minister himself dubbing the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray as nakli (Fake), the jury is out on which of the organisations founded by Bal Thackeray over half a century ago is the real one and which one is the imposter.
The dig taken by Narendra Modi is more of a signal for his exasperation over dealing with the organisation led by Uddhav, which has refused to be marginalised despite being split and snatched of power in the premier state.
Retorting to Modi's comment recently, the Sena chief said that his party is anything unlike the PM's degree, thus, implying the latter to be the one which is in fact, 'fake'.
With the Election Commission taking away its symbol and the Assembly Speaker going as per the script of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), It was thought that the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in Maharashtra two years back would sound the death knell for Uddhav and his outfit.
How Uddhav-Led Shiv Sena Bounced Back
But lo and behold, it rose like a phoenix and managed to become the numero uno in the Opposition space.
The fact that the Uddhav Sena has managed 21 seats out of the total 48 seats in the MVA allocation followed by 17 of the Congress party and 10 by Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), tells its own story. As against this, the faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is being seen as a beleaguered lot ahead of the Lok Sabha polls with Modi-Shah doing everything to marginalise him and his outfit.
The same is going to be the fate of Deputy CM Ajit Pawar after the Lok Sabha polls if he fails to "deliver” Baramati to the BJP from Sharad Pawar.
The 'use and throw’ technique will apply to the allies whenever the BJP feels that they no longer are of any use. So, we could see a 'Pashupati Paras’ or two, the dumped former minister from Bihar, in Maharashtra too.
Despite having a distinct identity and boasting the legacy of Shivaji Maharaj, Maharashtra has always remained in the mainstream where the national parties mattered. This trait had helped the Congress party to call the shots in the state some two to three decades back since its inception.
This has made the Congress party more than survive despite not having a tall leader in the state and the BJP seeking to dominate for the past decade.
Sena’s Crucial Role in Maharashtra’s Opposition Space
Maharashtra is different. No regional party has been able to come to power on its own in the state so far, speaks of its ethos.
A closer look could reveal that four years back when the Sena, after the famous split with the BJP, had done a somersault and had almost become the 'Lalu’ for Congress party and pitched for Rahul Gandhi. It has now been able to not only carve its niche in Maharashtra but also is calling the shots in the state's Opposition space.
This means that Eknath Shinde taking away most of the MPs and MLAs with the aid and abetment of the ‘Mahashakti’, as he had once hailed the BJP, has in a way helped Uddhav fight fit.
In a limited way, Uddhav is seeking to become 'Mamata Banerjee’ of Maharashtra with the blessings of Sharad Pawar, who also has his back to the wall.
The race for Maharashtra is going to further heat up after the Lok Sabha polls and the nature of the result on June 4 would indicate the lineup for the Assembly polls. With Raj Thackeray being roped in, the NDA is expected to be a madhouse ahead of the Assembly poll.
If Modi gets a third term, BJP’s single-minded focus will be on how to be in the driver’s seat in Mantralaya, the state government headquarters, on its own, leading to a lot of churning.
Is the BJP Losing Steam in Its Key State?
At present, the failure of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is called the Mahayuti in Maharashtra, to finalise the seat allocation so far, is seen as the ruling alliance already losing momentum in the key state.
This is not a happy augury in a state which the BJP wants to convert into its 'Uttar Pradesh’ or ‘Gujarat’. No one is saying that the BJP is powerless but it is using too many tricks showing its cluelessness.
The question that arises is why the BJP is bent on marginalising the asli Shiv Sena by hook or by crook. CM Shinde is looking more vulnerable and powerless by the day as the BJP has forced him to change at least three of his sitting MPs and is bent on taking over some of his seats. The unsaid argument is that either his party or candidate has less winning chance.
Interestingly, the BJP has been willy-nilly instrumental in initiating the metamorphosis of Maharashtra politics which has become the most messy since its inception way back in 1960.
A reason for this because despite the emergence of Modi on the national scene way back in 2014, the BJP has leapfrogged from the number four to the number one spot, but has not got its complete sway over the state. The majority mark of 145 in the 288-member Assembly has evaded BJP which got 122 in 2014 and 105 in 2019.
The question here is why is the PM giving importance to the nakli Shiv Sena which won the first Assembly by-poll after the split. It is worth pondering why is Uddhav pulling good crowds all over the state. Is it not the candid admission that the nakli is giving a run for his money to the Vishwaguru in the land of Marathas?
The PM is attempting to confuse the Marathi voters, who have never liked Marathas to surrender before the Delhi rulers. Shinde cannot claim Bal Thackeray's legacy for the simple reason that the latter never played a secondary role in politics despite having lesser representation in Parliament.
He was the first Hindu Hriday Samrat who had helped Modi to retain the chief ministership when the BJP in New Delhi was gunning for him after the 2002 Gujarat riots. Times change.
(Sunil Gatade is a former Associate Editor of the Press Trust of India. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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