Indian Subcontinental Survey: Like Pak, B'desh, Indians Root For Dyanst Politics

(This is Part Five of a series that analyses the results of an ambitious survey conducted across India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh to try and find out what citizens of the three independent sovereign republics think about each other, about the state of democracy in their country; about gender, religious and ethnic freedom; achievements and failures and about institutions, among others.)A casual snooping into conversations in tea stalls, snack corners, waiting lounges, and housing society benches could convince you that Indians are deeply engaged with politics. Yet, despite all the din and noise, data suggests that such an impression might just be misplaced. This is a significant revelation coming out of a path-breaking survey of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh by CVoter in collaboration with the Centre for Policy Research to mark 75 years of Partition of India (apart from the creation of a third sovereign nation-state called Bangladesh in 1972).1971 War: Where Do India-Bangladesh Ties Stand 50 Years Later?More than 15,000 respondents from across the three countries were asked a set of questions related to attitudes towards partition, neighbours, trust in other countries and in domestic institutions, the economy, the society, politics and gender equality among other things. In the previous columns in this series, we have analysed the responses of Indians to some issues, including their somewhat baffling optimism over India’s economic performance over the last 75 years. This column will deal with how Indians perceive politics and the state of democracy in the country. How deeply and intensely engaged are Indians with politics and political parties? As mentioned earlier, the CVoter-CPR survey suggests that a majority of Indians do not identify with any political party, and do not participate in activities conducted by a political party. Of course, among the minority that does identify with a specific political party, the level of commitment and polarisation is immense. It should come as no surprise that poor Indians and those belonging to traditionally oppressed ethnic backgrounds like the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes are politically more engaged than their more socially advantaged peers.Another interesting revelation is related to attitudes towards dynastic politics whose presence is widespread in India across the political spectrum. A higher proportion of poor and rural Indians, than their high-income and urban counterparts, are of the opinion that dynastic politics deter more deserving individuals from entering the political arena.The respondents were asked a simple question: Is there a political party you feel close to? While 36% answered in the affirmative, less than two out of every three Indians stated (s)he does not feel close to any political party. The differences were often stark and pronounced. While 39% of male respondents felt close to a political party, a substantially lower 32% of female respondents felt the same. Startlingly, while 30% of opposition voters felt close to a political party, a much higher 45% of NDA voters felt close to a political party. That perhaps is reflective of the success the BJP has achieved in organising and mobilising cadres and workers at the grassroots level while the main opposition party the Congress has struggled to do so. There is another seeming paradox that emerges from this set of responses. If almost two-thirds of Indian voters do not feel close to any political party, what explains the virtually sweeping mandates that winners have managed in contemporary times? Think 2019 Lok Sabha, 2021 West Bengal and Kerala, 2015 and 2020 Delhi, 2019 Odisha, 2022 Gujarat and to an extent, 2022 Uttar Pradesh. Perhaps, the answer lies in a structural change in Indian politics: leaders like Narendra Modi, Mamata Bannerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Naveen Patnaik and Pinnari Vijayan have become more important than their parties. For the parties in question, the personality cults and larger-than-life images of their leaders is undoubtedly asset as of now. But it could also be source of the problem for these parties in future. Indira Gandhi towered over the Congress so comprehensively that she was considered the “only man” in her Union Cabinet.No leader of her stature could emerge from under her shadows. Everyone knows what happened to the Congress party in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi.How polarised are Indians who do feel close to a specific political party? The responses reveal that there indeed is a significant level of polarisation, but not as alarming as it is portrayed in TV and social media discourse. Respondents were asked if they took it as a personal insult if “their” party was criticised. Overall, 30% said they always did while 29% said they never did. That doesn’t suggest a lot of polarisation. But add, often did and sometimes did and the total adds up to four out of every five Indian taking criticism of “their” party as a personal insult. Respondents were further asked if they meet a person supporting the same party and feel connected with him or her. About 43% said they always did while about 16% said they never did. Add often and sometimes and the total level of “personal connect” is much more than 80%. To round off, respondents were asked if they stopped talking to friends and family members who criticised their party. Just about 10% said they always did while close to two-thirds said they never did. Clearly, the vicious level of polarisation and acrimony that is visible on social media is not a reality for a big majority of ordinary Indians. Yet, the fact that one-third did stop talking either always, often or sometimes to friends and family members over political differences does suggest worrying levels of polarisation.What about active participation in political activities and a desire and willingness to jump into the political fray? The responses suggest that not many Indians seem to be very keen on either. Respondents were asked a straightforward question: in the last two years, have you taken part in the following activities? On political rallies and campaigns, while 19% said they actively participated, 62% said they did not participate at all. On civil society protests, just 11% said they actively participated while much more than two-thirds said they did not participate at all. Even worse was the case with social media campaigns that have become such a hot-button issue in contemporary times. Just 11% said they actively participated while three-fourth of the respondents said they did not participate at all. Perhaps, there is something about the much-maligned “silent majority” of voters. Media rhetoric by nature, leans towards hyperbole that may be divorced from ground realities. In 2021, there were constant reports of Prime Minister Narendra Modi drawing huge crowds while campaigning in West Bengal. His party BJP lost badly to the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Bannerjee. Similarly, there were frequent reports of then Congress president Rahul Gandhi getting loud and enthusiastic espouse to his war cry “Chowkidar Chor Hai” at rallies during the 2019 Lok Sabha campaign. We all know what happened. Media reports usually fail to capture the “silent majority” in the din and noise of politics. Don’t forget, about 611 million Indians voted in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.Indians remain distant from making politics an active career choice. Around 65 per cent of the respondents reported being not interested in politics as a career. The population with a lower education background, shows a greater preference for making politics a choice. Around 37 per cent of the respondents with lower education, showed a preference for politics against 31 per cent with middle and higher education backgrounds. Lower castes are more likely to join politics if given a chance. 43 per cent of SCs and 47 per cent of STs responded positively to the question of making a career in politics. This is significantly higher than the other groups where only 29–35 per cent of respondents chose the affirmative.Similarly, it was surprising that almost an equal proportion of both men (35 per cent) and women (36 per cent) saying they would join politics if given an opportunity.In our view, this can be because these historically marginalised communities might view politics as an opportunity to climb the social ladder, influence real change and enhance their standard of living. Another reason for the high preference for political careers for people from these backgrounds may be that having witnessed the problems associated with poor education or low incomes, they might also be more passionate about development and bringing change through politics.As briefly mentioned earlier, almost two-third of Indians are of the opinion that dynastic politics acts as a detention to seeking individuals and leaders who want to enter the political arena. There are differing perceptions here too. Substantially, higher proportion of NDA votes are against dynasty politics. And, while almost three-fourth of Indians with middle or higher education are opposed to dynastic politics, 60% of those with low education, share the sentiment. Interestingly, while about the same proportion of higher and lower income groups disapprove of dynastic politics, a far higher 69% of middle income Indians do the same. At the moment, no matter what a majority of Indians think or say, it does appear that dynastic politics is here to stay in India for quite some time. As subsequent columns that analyse responses from Pakistan and Bangladesh will show, dynastic politics has been a fact of life in South Asian politics for decades.That brings us to the final issue: is Indian democracy in danger? Going by various reports, commentaries, analyses and rankings, democracy seems to be in imminent danger in India. V Dem, a Swedish academic initiative now calls India an “electoral autocracy” where even the Election Commission of India no longer sees to act in a free, fair and independent manner. According to V Dem and an American Think Tank Freedom House, even the higher judiciary in India now tends to succumb to pressure. That is a pretty damning indictment. The Economist Intelligence Unit now calls India a “flawed democracy”. This decline in the health of Indian democracy, according to such reports and rankings has been pronounced since 2014 when an NDA government led by Narendra Modi came to power. The CVoter-CPR survey makes an effort to add another dimension to this debate by asking Indian citizens about their opinions on the state of Indian democracy.About 22% respondents were of the opinion that Indian democracy has declined in the last 10 years; more than 53% said it has improved and more than 18% said it has remained the same. A big proportion of the “democracy has declined” responses came from the non-NDA voters.Respondents were further asked how free and fair the last Lok Sabha elections were. While 44.3% felt it was completely free and fair, only 15% felt it was not free and fair. Another 35% were of the opinion that it was somewhat free and fair. When the health of a democracy deteriorates, voters are more likely to be sceptical about the ability of their vote to make a difference. Respondents were asked: do you think your vote has an effect on how things are run in our country or do you think you vote makes no difference? Close to 72% said it does make a difference while about 28% said it makes no difference.Clearly, there is a yawning gap between how academic experts and ordinary citizens perceive things. How should we understand this difference in perception of India’s democratic health? The next column will analyse responses related to trust in India’s major institutions. It will also look how the Indian state’s track record on protecting rights of disadvantaged groups.Read Part 1 here, Part 2 here, Part 3 here, Part 4 here.(Yashwant Deshmukh & Sutanu Guru work with CVoter Foundation and Rahul Verma is Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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Indian Subcontinental Survey: Like Pak, B'desh, Indians Root For Dyanst Politics

75 years post-partition, Indian citizens weigh in on state of politics, its potential & where democracy is headed.

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