''Mafia ko mitti mein mila denge..." (will raze the Mafia to the ground) wasn't just an empty statement recently made by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath following Umesh Pal's murder given how it turned into a dystopian reality. Atiq Ahmad’s son involved in the incident was killed in an encounter couple of days ago. Last night Atiq and his brother Ashraf were gunned down by unknown assailants straight out of a political thriller as cops acted mute bystanders.
Rather than eradicate gunda raj ie, rule of criminals, this brazen act reinforces lawlessness in the state.
Sure, it shouldn't trigger sympathy for a mafioso like Atiq with a record of over 100 criminal cases, but it inadvertently harms the state's Badal raha hai (UP is changing) image nationally.
There is, however, more than what meets the eye in the series of events. Yogi's ambitions to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi's next-in-line now hang by a thread.
For the Sake of 'Law and Order'
The murder, telecasted live, reflects abysmally low on the UP police and the state administration. A section of Twitter and the country may be rejoicing at the gruesome, open-air killing of a dreaded gangster and backing the state for a 'justified' intervention, but it doesn't negate the fact that the breach of security of anyone in custody, regardless of their criminal record or political clout, is a gross administrative lapse and the Yogi Adityanath-led government must account for the same.
It is imperative for Yogi to take strong action for negligence or else his tall claims regarding the law and order situation in the state will prove to be a noisy myth.
It is equally impossible to neglect the extremely divergent and hardened positions that social media users have taken regarding this incident which are only reflective of how polarised our society has become over the last decade.
An Instance of ‘Organised Crime’?
The UP CM has already ordered a probe by a three-member judicial committee after holding a high-level meeting at his residence. However, it's just the tip of the iceberg and a larger conspiracy cannot be ruled out by any means that the administration must include in its investigation.
There is, after all, a not-so-discreet nexus between criminals and politicians (across parties), which the latter use to drive an agenda that suits them. Be it the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, or the Bharatiya Janata Party, all seem to be leveraging on the said arrangement.
This, nevertheless, inspires a couple of glaring questions: How did the assailants know when to pounce on the deceased? The coordination seemed almost pre-ordained. Why was the security so pitiful that they could swoop into the scene, in front of the cameras and the cops, and shoot Atiq and Ashraf, point blank?
Looking Forward: The 2024 General Elections
The incident of Atiq's murder alone can have a significant impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. On one hand, it could consolidate the minority vote in favour of the Samajwadi Party. After all, in 2004, Atiq had contested and won a Lok Sabha seat on an SP ticket from Phulpur, the seat once represented by Jawaharlal Nehru. On the other, the hardcore Hindu vote will stay with the BJP.
It does, however, undermine the efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to win over the minorities. Indeed, the BJP held a conference in October last year with prominent members and intellectuals of the Pasmanda Muslim community in Lucknow to establish a better relationship with them.
The case of the swing voter would be most interesting. This too has two dimensions. While many people feel that justice has finally prevailed and Atiq has paid for his crimes with death, there is bound to be a general sense of apathy among people and a loss of faith in the judiciary and the police due to their collective failure to punish criminals within the ambit of the law. Two wrongs don't make a right and it is to be seen if this incident dissolves whatever faith the swing-voter had in Yogi's 'law and order' model.
How can Yogi be the Next Modi?
While Yogi has touted 'law and order' as the strong point of his government time and again, Atiq's murder could be perceived by the moderate voter to be antithetical to such a claim, with the latter being denied the opportunity of a fair trial at the very least.
If the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh has ambitions to become the prime minister of India, it would do well for him to remember that hardcore Hindutva is not likely to work its trick across the country's cross-section and give him the 'unquestioning' support of voters.
A sizeable chunk of the Indian population constitutes moderate liberals, who, while apathetic to bulldozers and encounters in a far-away state, may not accept for themselves the iron hand that Yogi tends to rule with.
If he wants to emerge as Narendra Modi's successor, Yogi needs to work on altering his own image. He, like Modi, needs to come forth as a statesman, and a national leader. A fair explanation with respect to Atiq's murder and a tough response to it would be a good place to start.
(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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