Karnataka Congress Outdid Itself in Rajya Sabha Polls, but Challenges Remain

A lot of the credit goes to CM Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM Shivakumar, say experts.

In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress government in Karnataka is faced with challenges – both new and old. After the suspected IED blast at Rameswaram Cafe, a popular eatery in Bengaluru, and the alleged chanting of 'pro-Pakistan' slogans after the victory of a Congress leader in the Rajya Sabha polls, the party has found itself in the hot seat – with the opposition BJP and JD(S) leaving no stone unturned to criticise the leadership.

The BJP has demanded the resignation of Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah after the two incidents, attributing them to the Congress government's "appeasement politics."

Former Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai said in a post on X on 1 March: "After the Congress government came to power in the state, the activities of gangs are on the rise, and the attitude of the state government is also causing such incidents," he alleged.

ಬೆಂಗಳೂರಿನ ರಾಮೇಶ್ವರಂ ಕೆಫೆ ಬಳಿ ಸ್ಪೋಟವಾಗಿದ್ದು ರಾಜ್ಯದ ನಾಗರಿಕರನ್ನು ಭಯಭೀತರನ್ನಾಗುವಂತೆ ಮಾಡಿದೆ. ರಾಜ್ಯದಲ್ಲಿ ಕಾಂಗ್ರೆಸ್ ಸರ್ಕಾರ ಅಧಿಕಾರಕ್ಕೆ ಬಂದ ಮೇಲೆ ಆಗಂತುಕರ ಚಟುವಟಿಕೆಗಳು ಹೆಚ್ಚಾಗುತ್ತಿದ್ದು, ಇದಕ್ಕೆ ರಾಜ್ಯ ಸರ್ಕಾರದ ವರ್ತನೆಗಳೂ ಇಂತಹ ಘಟನೆಗಳು ಹೆಚ್ಚಾಗಲು ಕಾರಣವಾಗುತ್ತಿದೆ.
ರಾಜ್ಯ ಸರ್ಕಾರ ಇವತ್ತಿನ ಸ್ಪೋಟವನ್ನು…

— Basavaraj S Bommai (Modi Ka Parivar) (@BSBommai) March 1, 2024

Whether such narratives would have any bearing on voters is yet to be seen. But political experts tell The Quint that the BJP's sustained attacks on the Congress and the minorities in the state are a part of its strategy to regain footing in Karnataka, where it has historically performed well in the Lok Sabha polls.

This is especially significant considering that the Congress, led by CM Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar, managed to keep their flock together during the recently held Rajya Sabha polls on 27 February, in which it won three out of four seats and even got a BJP MLA to cross-vote for the Congress candidate.

So, what worked for the Congress in Karnataka in the Rajya Sabha polls – at a time when the party suffered a blow in Himachal Pradesh? What didn't work for the BJP?

Will Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar be able to keep up the show in the Lok Sabha polls, with the BJP-JD(S) on the offensive? 

How Congress Pulled Off the Rajya Sabha Win

The Congress' Ajay Maken, GC Chandrasekhar, and Syed Naseer Hussain won the three seats the party contested in the Rajya Sabha polls in Karnataka, while the BJP's Narayansa K Bhandage won the fourth. D Kupendra Reddy of the JD(S) also contested the polls but lost. 

What’s significant here?

• BJP MLA and former minister ST Somashekar cross-voted for the Congress candidate

• BJP MLA Shivram Hebbar abstained from voting

• Four Independent MLAs, including former BJP minister G Janardhan Reddy, supported the Congress candidates

• The Karnataka Congress managed to prevent any cross-voting in its ranks, whereas, in Himachal Pradesh, six Congress MLAs cross-voted for the BJP candidate Harsh Mahajan

So, what worked in Karnataka?

"The Congress had the numbers to win the three seats it contested but since the JD(S) had fielded a candidate, they anticipated some cross-voting to happen," explains senior journalist Naheed Ataulla.

She adds that the Congress MLAs were seamlessly moved to a hotel a day before the polls, given mock sessions on how to vote and whom to vote for, and on the day of the vote, they were brought to Vidhan Soudha on a bus.

But the leadership's efforts to keep the MLAs happy began a month or so ago. 

Speaking to The Quint, Prof Chandan Gowda, Ramakrishna Hegde Chair Professor at the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bengaluru, says:

"Before the elections, many of the Congress MLAs have been appointed as chairpersons to several boards and corporations in the government. They have also been promised funds for work in their constituencies. So, these may have worked in the party's favour."

Ataulla adds that the fear of disqualification may have also prompted the MLAs to refrain from cross-voting. 

"The Congress MLAs have another four years to go. If they cross-vote, they will be disqualified. They can't afford to lose those four years. Some of them aspire to be ministers and hold some kind of office," she opines.

Congress MLA from Mandya, Ravi Ganiga, even filed a complaint against JD(S) candidate Kupendra Reddy, accusing him of offering bribes to Independent MLAs Latha Mallikarjun, Puttaswamy Gowda, and Darshan Puttanaiah to cast their votes in his favour. "This may have created the perception that the BJP-JD(S) alliance was desperate to win the seat," Ataulla adds.

Political analyst Madhavan Narayanan, meanwhile, adds: "The average Karnataka MLA or MP is much more accountable to the people than the average MLA or MP in north India. So, defections would be scrutinised a lot more."

As for Somashekar cross-voting and Shivram Hebbar abstaining from voting, experts say that both leaders have been cosying up to the Congress leadership for a while. 

"Both Hebbar and Somashekar have been making moves to join the Congress. Somashekar is seen in Congress functions regularly. Both of them have been rebelling against the BJP for a while now," Prof Gowda says.

Somashekar is the BJP's Yeshvanthapura MLA, whereas Hebbar represents the Yellapur constituency. They were both served notices by the party after the Rajya Sabha polls.

A lot of the credit also goes to Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, say experts. "The combination of Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar is very strong, despite their differences. Siddaramaiah knows exactly how to manage the populist side of things and Shivakumar knows how to manage the organisational and financial sides," opines Narayanan.

Siddaramaiah is known to have the support of a majority of the Congress MLAs in Karnataka, whereas Shivakumar is usually deployed by the party to "fix its problems." He was even flown to Himachal Pradesh when the government was facing instability after the poor show in the Rajya Sabha polls.

Can Congress Keep This Up in Lok Sabha Polls?

There are a few factors to consider here:

• The BJP has historically won a majority of Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka for the past two decades, no matter who has been in power in the State Assembly. You can read more about that here

• The Modi and Ram Mandir factors

• The state BJP and JD(S)'s sustained campaign against the Congress in light of the Rameshwaram Cafe blast and the 'pro-Pakistan slogan' row

"The Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha elections are two separate exercises. The smooth victory for three of the Congress' Rajya Sabha candidates did show a determined effort among its leaders, but whether this will also be the case during the Lok Sabha polls remains to be seen," opines Prof Gowda.

Narayanan says: "The BJP is so keen to surpass its current majority in the Lok Sabha that it is going that extra mile. If perceptions are to go by, the party looks quite unassailable because of the Modi and Ram Mandir factors – and people like to be on the winning side."

He, however, adds that this perception is higher in north India than in the south. So, Karnataka – where the party has a good presence – is important for it to get its desired figure in the Lok Sabha. Its newly formed alliance with the JD(S) is a testament to that.

"But even in Karnataka, the BJP has had to struggle. This is because the voters are much more aware here, and their demands are much higher," he adds.

He further opines that while mood surveys have predicted that the BJP would get the majority of seats in Karnataka in the Lok Sabha polls, "if the rollout of the programmes and guarantees by Siddaramaiah over the past year is good enough, the probability and tendency for anti-incumbency will be low."

It is also important to note that the BJP had peaked in Lok Sabha polls in the state in 2019, where it won 25 out of 28 seats on its own. This time, with the JD(S), it is expected to win 24 seats, as per the Mood of the Nation Survey. The Congress is likely to gain, but how big that gain would be would depend on the leadership in the state.