Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why Have Surveys Predicted a BJP Sweep in Karnataka?

The BJP's projected win comes months after the Congress made a comeback in Karnataka in the 2023 Assembly polls.

Mood surveys ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have predicted a BJP-led NDA sweep in most north Indian states, while the five southern states are largely set to go the Opposition way. All the southern states, barring Karnataka. 

India Today and CVoter's Mood of the Nation survey has predicted that the BJP and JD(S) alliance in Karnataka will win 24 out of the 28 Parliamentary seats. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, on his visit to the state recently, said that the "situation is favourable for the NDA to win all 28 seats in Karnataka."

The BJP's projected win in Karnataka comes months after the Congress made a comeback in the state in the 2023 Assembly polls. So, does this mean the Congress, which is in power in the state, is losing its ground?

There are some aspects to consider at this juncture:

1. The BJP has historically done better than the Congress in Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka since 2004, even when the UPA government had come to power at the Centre (in 2004 and 2009).

2. The saffron party's vote share in Lok Sabha polls has risen steadily over the past two decades – more so than its vote share in Vidhan Sabha polls. 

3. In 2019, the BJP won 25 seats on its own. This time, the NDA is projected to get 24 seats along with its ally JD(S). The NDA's vote share is set to remain the same as in the previous elections, at 53 percent, as per the survey.

4. The Congress, on the other hand, is predicted to marginally increase its seat tally, from 1 to 4 seats. In terms of vote share, the survey predicts 42 percent for the Congress which was roughly the same as the combined vote share of the Congress and JD(S) in 2019.

Political experts attribute this to the noticeable fact that Karnataka votes differently during Assembly and Parliamentary polls. But to better understand this, let's take a deeper look at the numbers. 

What Does Data Say?

Election Commission of India data says that even when the BJP had suffered losses or received fewer seats in the Vidhan Sabha polls, it had done well in the subsequent or corresponding Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka.

Take, for instance, the 2013 Assembly polls. The Congress won an absolute majority of 122 seats that year, but in the subsequent Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the BJP won 18 seats, and the Congress 9 seats.

Moreover, while the BJP's vote share from 2004 to 2019 Lok Sabha polls has risen from 34.77 percent to 51.74 percent, its vote share in Assembly polls has seen little change. 

On the other hand, the Congress' vote share in both polls has remained unchanged – give or take a few percentage points.

Interestingly, in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP bagged Karnataka even though the UPA had come to power at the Centre. And this was before Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in the picture.

Experts say that this could be due to the BJP finding a solid vote base among the powerful Lingayat community in the state, after it withdrew support for the Congress in the early 1990s. The subsequent disintegration of Janata Dal coalition may have also pushed the community towards the BJP in Karnataka.

"The Lingayat vote base voting en masse for the BJP left the Congress with its traditional vote banks, which may have resulted in this upward trend for the BJP," opines senior journalist Naheed Ataulla.

Tara Krishnaswamy, political expert and co-founder of Political Shakti, however, says that in 2004, the votes were divided in Karnataka due to a multi-cornered contest.

"The Lokniti polls revealed that Karnataka voters were satisfied with the then-incumbent NDA. Congress MPs were unpopular but renominated. Thus, the vote was against the MPs," she adds.

In the subsequent terms of 2014 and 2019, the Modi factor may have played a role, explaining the steady rise in the party's vote share and seat share.

Assembly Polls Vs Lok Sabha Polls

"The voters in India have a very clear sense of voting for Vidhan Sabha vs Lok Sabha. Historically, we have seen that they do not vote the same way in the state," explains Krishnaswamy.

"Karnataka voters weigh this decision based on what they believe is best for them as far as the state and Centre goes. In other words, the parameters are different, and so are the issues. The kind of things the state is responsible for is very different from the kind of things the Parliament is responsible for." 

Tara Krishnaswamy

Speaking to The Quint, Ataulla says: "During the Assembly elections in Karnataka, it is the local issues that matter. But for the Lok Sabha – especially with the BJP winning the perception battle – voters may think why they should vote for the Congress at the Centre when it most likely won't be able to form a government."

But political experts point out that the recent mood survey results could also mean the BJP may be losing ground in the state owing to an anti-incumbency against BJP MPs.

"The public is not really voting for the BJP MPs – a lot of the vote for Lok Sabha polls is going to Modi. The vast majority of BJP MPs haven't brought much benefit to the state as Parliamentarians. Their job is to make sure that the Union budget allocations are sufficient for the state and also to ensure that Karnataka's voice in Parliament is heard," Krishnaswamy opines.

"And if you look at whether that has happened – whether it is drought relief for the entire state, whether it is tax allocation through the 15th Finance Commission, whether it is language rights, whether it is due for MNREGA – you can see it has really not," she added. 

Broadly experts, as well as the MOTN survey, seem to suggest that there is likely to be some reduction in the BJP's vote share compared to 2019 but it may get compensated by its alliance with the JD(S).

"Despite the ties with JD(S), the NDA is only projected to get 24 seats. In 2019, not only did the BJP get 25 out of 28 seats, but they got it without the help of JD(S) – without the Mandya region, which they didn't have last time," she says.