Coming soon after the electoral bonds data that revealed the identity of donors and recipients of anonymous political donations, the late-night dramatic arrest of Delhi Chief Minister (CM) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo Arvind Kejriwal on election eve seemingly has the potential to unite an otherwise disparate group of Opposition parties.
The INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc, however, faces a big challenge ahead. Besides lacking organisational strength and a credible leader who can make a strong case for political vendetta, the Opposition parties have not been seen as a cohesive grouping.
But as a first step post-Kejriwal’s arrest, members of the INDIA bloc immediately lined up in his support, coming down heavily on the Modi government for misusing investigative agencies to target Opposition leaders.
They all declared their resolve to set aside their differences and fight this battle unitedly by launching street protests and taking this issue to the people in their election campaign. An hour ago, Aam Aadmi Party MLA Atishi stated that the "entire INDIA alliance will organise a 'maha rally' at 10 am on 31 March at the Ramlila Maidan."
Even the Congress which was banished from the electoral arena in Delhi by the Kejriwal-led AAP, showed up to express its solidarity with the beleaguered chief minister.
Will the Voters Buy What a United Opposition Offers to Sell?
Kejriwal’s arrest is not just a setback for the AAP as he is its most powerful and charismatic leader-cum-strategist, but it will also hurt the INDIA bloc as the Delhi CM was being counted as among its chief campaigners. In fact, it is quite evident that Kejriwal’s arrest was timed to keep him away from the campaign trail.
After the initial declarations of support, the Opposition has to chalk out an action plan to convince the electorate that the Bharatiya Janata Party in general and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in particular, are killing democracy in the country by waging an all-out war against the Opposition, and how the Enforcement Directorate, the Income Tax department and the Central Bureau of Investigation, have become handy tools to harass their political adversaries.
While Kejriwal’s arrest will predictably be highlighted by the Opposition, especially the AAP, to generate sympathy for him, the charge of political vendetta will be further supplemented by the Congress pointing to how its bank accounts have been frozen before the upcoming elections.
The electoral bonds data provided by the State Bank of India will also be publicised to show how the Modi government doled out contracts to companies who made hefty donations to the BJP, while others were virtually coerced into buying the bonds after investigative agencies swooped in on them.
The Opposition believes it has a good story to sell. But it’s too early to say if the voters will buy it. The BJP is unlikely to sit back and allow the Opposition to set the agenda. There is bound to be a pushback by the saffron party which has a consummate communicator in the prime minister who will showcase the action against the opposition as a fulfilment of his promise to root out corruption and punish the corrupt. The revelations on the electoral bonds data will be brushed aside on the ground that all political parties benefited from it.
How Far Will INDIA Go For Kejriwal?
Besides facing a popular and credible leader, the Opposition finds itself pitted against a cash-rich, well-oiled organisation which has stitched up alliances with a host of small regional outfits, perfected its caste combinations, and is unapologetic about using Hindu nationalism to polarise the electorate in its favour.
Opposition parties also have to fight the public perception that it will not survive long as a united grouping as its members started squabbling shortly after the INDIA bloc's initial show of solidarity. To make matters worse, it lost two allies – Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Jayant Chaudhary of the Rashtriya Lok Dal – to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. The Opposition bloc is also bereft of a leader who can prove to be a worthy challenger to Modi.
Seat-sharing talks between the Congress and its allies further brought out the differences in the grouping. These negotiations are still on in Maharashtra, the seat-sharing pact in Bihar has not been sealed yet while West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee has decided to go solo, and in Kerala, the Congress and the Left parties are pitted against each other.
The Congress-AAP alliance is unusual as the two parties have finalised their partnership in Delhi, Haryana, Goa and Gujarat but have decided to go their separate ways in Punjab.
Kejriwal’s arrest has provided the Opposition a fresh opportunity to present a united front and to take its message to the voters by waging a relentless battle on the streets. However, there are lurking doubts that the Opposition can deliver on this front, as none of the parties have the capacity or the leadership to counter the BJP agenda at the national level.
Regional parties like the Trinamool Congress, the DMK or the Rashtriya Janata Dal can, at best, drum up some support in their respective states. Here again, there is no clarity on whether Kejriwal’s arrest and its larger implications for the national polity will resonate with the people outside Delhi as caste affiliations and local issues generally tend to take centre stage.
Having won two successive assembly polls in the national Capital, it is expected that the AAP will make an impact in Delhi but the protesting party cadres may find it difficult to keep up the fight for the next few weeks as the Delhi Lok Sabha polls are to be held only in the fourth phase. Similarly, the AAP could face an uphill task in garnering sympathy for Kejriwal beyond the national capital due to its limited presence across the country.
The party will be dependent on the INDIA bloc parties to pitch in but the question is: how far will they go for Kejriwal once their initial enthusiasm wanes?
(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist. She can be reached at @anitaakat. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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