This is the second occasion within a few months that psephologists have had to bite the dust. Their predictions about the Haryana assembly elections were as off the mark as the Lok Sabha ones earlier this year.
The results in Haryana have confounded popular perception because exit polls, political analysts, and journalists reporting from the ground were anticipating a resounding victory for the Congress party. Yogendra Yadav, whose predictions for Lok Sabha elections in May were almost spot on, had even said that the trend was in favour of the grand old party and the only question was whether it was a wave or a tsunami.
Questions need to be asked about the diversity of the respondents selected by psephologists and pollsters. They need to fine-tune their methodology in order to not have their credibility smashed.
One view is that the sampling during the exit polls was mainly done in the areas dominated by the Jats. Another view is that the BJP campaign focussed on exploiting the differences between Jat strongman Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, propagating that communities other than the Jats were going to face domination if the Congress was voted to power.
Everyone, till the day of the results, was of the opinion that there was a groundswell of opposition in Haryana to the union and state policies. The unemployment rate in the state is said to be one of the highest in the country, further aggravated by the introduction of the Agnipath scheme. It became an emotional issue for the youth of Haryana because joining the defence services is considered to be a matter of pride.