The Ministry of Education has added to loads of pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Already mired in the geopolitical upheavals and unravelling of the energy crisis, the CBSE row on the back of the NEET-UG exam cancellation on the back of paper leaks has compounded the crisis for the Modi government.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), perception matters more than performance. As it’s often said by party strategists, the Prime Minister has his back against the wall in the battle to dominate perceptions.
Transfers of key officials such as the CBSE chairman and the secretary of the Ministry of Education signal that the Modi government admits the unfolding crisis. That Solicitor General Tushar Mehta told the Supreme Court that “the Prime Minister is himself monitoring the NEET exam issue” is another confirmation that the government admits the gravity of the crisis on the hand.
Furthermore, the attempt to dominate optics by flashing newsbreaks that the Indian Air Force is being roped in for transporting NEET question papers make it clear that the government is desperate to manage the situation. With the Prime Minister’s stakes now exposed on the NEET exam, it may just be a matter of time before he cracks the whip to attempt wresting control of perception by ordering a total overhaul of the Ministry of Education.
Dharmendra Pradhan's Place in the BJP
Dharmendra Pradhan, the incumbent Minister for Education, is an organisational man for the BJP. Before Modi became Prime Minister, Pradhan had established his name in the BJP as a party in-charge for crucial Bihar.
He was close to the late Arun Jaitely, who had also held the position of party in-charge for Bihar. After Amit Shah became president of the BJP, Pradhan gradually came close to him and is now a key member of the inner circle of Shah.
Thus, Pradhan’s main source of strength comes from Shah, who is arguably the second most powerful person in the government, only after the Prime Minister. Pradhan may hope that Shah will help him survive. Shah will also like to see that no loss comes in the way of a key member of his inner circle.
Will Modi Act?
Kailash Vijayvargiya was a powerful general secretary of the BJP when Shah was the party president. Shah trusted him with crucial West Bengal affairs. But Vijayvargiya’s son one day went viral as he wielded a cricket bat to attack some people in Indore. That was a big dent to Modi’s sensitivity to perception among the people for the BJP.
In a parliamentary board meeting, the Prime Minister made his displeasure known. Later, the BJP circles would often say that Modi never forgot Vijayvargiya’s lapse in not controlling his son. Reason: almost all the key functionaries in Team Amit Shah, when he was party president, got Rajya Sabha membership except Vijayvargiya. He ended up being sent from Delhi to contest Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, and now he’s a minister in the state, while he had widely been nursing an ambition to become chief minister.
The Vijayvargiya affair illustrates that Modi doesn’t spare those who dent his image and that of the party. Indeed, his actions may come with delay, with a clear objective to be not seen coming under the pressure of Opposition.
Pradhan has arguably dealt a blow to Modi's image, with students exposing the CBSE's apparent carelessness in awarding the Onscreen Marking System (OSM) tender to a Hyderabad-based company, while NEET continues to be mired in controversy.
The Cost of Inaction
As the Gen Z wave sweeps in India’s neighbourhoods, from Sri Lanka to Nepal, the Prime Minister is well aware of the strength of the young students. He is also aware that the Gen Z wave already has landed in India, in Tamil Nadu where a film star within two years of forming his political party has become the CM of the state. Modi’s zeal to connect with Gen Z is old, which can be seen in his seriousness for holding pariksha pe charcha (a book was also brought out by him).
It was apparently in a bid to connect with Gen Z that Modi chose Nitin Nabin as BJP president. Yet, Nabin, a Class 12 graduate, may not be best placed to connect with India's increasingly aspirational young voters. The fact that he had enrolled in an engineering course but left it after his father's death to enter electoral politics is a story in itself.
The bottom line, as stressed by BJP functionaries, is the growing importance of Gen Z. In another eight months, Modi has to again hit the electioneering trails in Uttar Pradesh and many other states, which are priming for Assembly elections.
Pradhan is in the BJP’s crosshairs for massively disturbing the party’s core vote base—the middle class. The contentious UGC resolution also adds to Pradhan’s list of problems. There is a view among several senior BJP functionaries that Modi may act and bring in a new face at the Ministry of Education.
Modi's Discarded Heavyweights
Smriti Irani was once among the most powerful ministers in the Modi government. Today, she is largely out of the spotlight. Ravi Shankar Prasad, too, was once an influential minister before being dropped. Rajyavardhan Rathore, who helmed the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, met a similar fate. Anurag Thakur can also be added to that list. In BJP circles, there are many theories about why each lost their ministerial berth, but the common thread is that the Prime Minister removed them for reasons known only to him.
The Cabinet reshuffle is inevitable as the Modi government approaches the halfway mark of its third term. In a few months, the political calendar will become crowded with elections, narrowing the window for any significant reorganisation.
Modi is not known for sweeping Cabinet overhauls. He has rarely opted for dramatic shake-ups, preferring calibrated adjustments and limited changes. Dharmendra Pradhan will surely dread the prospect that he could be shown the door, with a likely cover that strong functionaries are required in the BJP to work for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
(The author is a senior Delhi-based journalist, with over two decades spent in tracing the BJP and Indian politics. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's onw. The Quint does not endorse or is responsible for them.)