Shattered by its defeat in the three Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the Congress has to do some serious introspection in the coming days about what went wrong in these polls and where does it go from here.
It is not going to be an easy task as it will take time for the Congress to reconcile itself to the fact that it has suffered a humiliating defeat when it was convinced it would emerge victorious in two of these three states.
The Congress was confident that Chhattisgarh was a done deal and that Bhupesh Bhagel would come through with flying colours. It was equally sure of wresting Madhya Pradesh from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and was hoping that it would win a second successive term in Rajasthan though the state has a tradition of voting out an incumbent government.
BJP Beat Congress in Every Electoral Factor
Taking a cue from its success in Karnataka, the Congress entrusted the planning and management of the election to the state leaders. It also borrowed from its Karnataka playbook with its offer of welfare schemes for different sections of the population. Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Baghel in Chhattisgarh had already rolled out a raft of schemes for women, youth, farmers, and tribals with the promise that more was still to come.
However, it was beaten in this game by the BJP which also promised a host of freebies with the Madhya Pradesh chief minister unveiling his Ladli Behna scheme, providing a cash amount of Rs.1200 to women, months before the election. This was topped with a heavy dose of religious polarisation. Though Kamal Nath and Baghel tried to match the BJP by playing the religion card but to little avail.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi proved to be the BJP’s biggest asset whose popularity has not dimmed over the past ten years. The elections in these states were led by Modi who was the mainstay of the party’s campaign. With state leaders pushed to the background, this election revolved around Modi and his promise of freebies.
Clearly, the electorate in the three states trusted and believed the Prime Minister when he periodically spoke of “Modi ki guarantee” to assure them that the promises made to them would be fulfilled.
Karnataka Sttrategy Won't Work in Hindi Heartland
The Congress has to necessarily go back to the drawing board to analyse the reasons for the failure of its Karnataka strategy in the Hindi heartland states. After its victory in the Southern state, Congress strategists believed it had a winning formula in highlighting bread-and-butter issues and providing a social safety net to those at the bottom of the pyramid.
However, the Congress failed to factor in the heavy influence of the BJP’s Hindutva ideology, which has far more adherents in the Hindi heartland than in Karnataka.
The “Bajrang Bali” war cry did not work in the South but the Sanatam Dharma controversy and the tag of minority appeasement resonated with voters in the Northern belt. The Congress has been struggling for the past ten years to find an answer to the ideological challenge posed by the BJP but, here again, it has hit a dead-end.
In a belated move, the Congress decided to play the caste card which, it hoped, could trump the BJP’s successful efforts at religious polarisation. It began by wooing the Other Backward Classes by promising a nationwide caste census if voted to power.
Here again, it has been beaten by the BJP which has not publicly supported this proposal but it has expanded its social base by bringing backward class leaders on board and giving them positions in the party. That the Congress was unable to cash in on its caste card was evident from the latest election results. The backward classes voted overwhelmingly for the BJP in the three states even though outgoing chief ministers of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel are both OBCs.
What Should Congress Do?
In addition to working on an acceptable political narrative for the forthcoming Lok Sabha election and resolving its ideological dilemma, the Congress has to also focus on streamlining the party organization with a special focus on encouraging and grooming a younger generation of leaders. The party should draw some lessons from the recent election result and go in for a generational change in the organization.
Veterans like Kamal Nath and Digivjaya Singh should be given advisory roles in the party while younger faces take on the leadership mantle and emerge as the face of the party. The Congress must regain lost political ground in the Northern belt while it still has a base and an organisation here. If it continues to go downhill here, it will not be long before it is reduced to the margins like in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal.
While finding answers to these questions, the Congress has to work on building trust with voters and regain its credibility which has been successfully destroyed by the BJP’s ten-year-long propaganda against it. This again is an uphill task as the BJP’s message that the Congress is a corrupt and dynastic party has been accepted and internalised by the people.
On the other hand, Modi’s credibility remains at an all-time high. His public statements and speeches are accepted as the Gospel truth. The only way the Congress can make any kind of breakthrough is to destroy the Prime Minister’s credibility but it will not help the party’s cause if it comes up with slogans like “Chowkidar chor hai” which were rejected by voters as an uncalled-for personal attack.
With the next Lok Sabha elections less than five months away, the Congress has to redouble its efforts to put its house in order. The clock is ticking.
(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist. She can be reached at @anitaakat. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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