In quantitative terms, the monsoon seasonal rainfall from June to September over the entire country is likely to be 103 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
As per IMD, LPA is "the average rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) over a long period like 30 years, 50 years, etc." With a model error of ± 4 percent, the LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole based on data of 1971-2020 is 87 cm.
La Nina Condition Is Favouring Indian Summer Monsoon: IMD
Earlier, in its first stage LRF, which was released in April, IMD had forecast that the country would be receiving 99 percent monsoon rainfall. It has been upgraded to 103 percent mainly due to the La Nina condition, IMD said.
"Our forecast indicates that La Nina will prevail during the entire monsoon season. Besides, there are more ocean and atmospheric parameters now in favour of the Indian summer monsoon than what prevailed during April," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD's Director General, reported The Indian Express.
While the southern peninsula and central India are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall (more than 106 percent of the LPA), rainfall is most likely to be normal at northwest (92-108 percent of LPA) and northeast (96-106 percent of LPA) India.
The IMD Chief said that from June to September, rainfall will be spatially well distributed over the states including, Andhra Pradesh, northern areas of northeast India, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh.
On the other hand, regions like Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, pockets of Rajasthan, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura, Kerala, southern Assam, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal will receive below normal rain over the next four months.
The rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions is most likely to be above normal ( more than 106 percent of LPA).
The southwest monsoon which reached Kerala on 29 May advanced to other parts of the state, more areas of Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, and Arabian Sea on Monday and Tuesday. It is expected to further advance and spread across remaining parts of northeast India and Karnataka. Parts of Goa and southern Konkan region in Maharashtra are likely to witness early monsoon.
In the month of June, the country will witness normal rainfall between 92 and 108 percent of the LPA.
(With inputs from The Indian Express.)