A Call to Surrender Arms in Manipur but Can Lasting Peace be Manufactured?

In the aftermath of violence, a deep sense of injustice continues to prevail among the masses, writes David Hanneng.

A call for surrender of looted arms has been given in Manipur but will it be enough to repair the fractures between the hills and the valley?

(Photo: Aroop Mishra/the Quint)

The resignation of Chief Minister N Biren Singh and the promulgation of President’s Rule in Manipur has given hopes that a semblance of peace might return to the hill state. One immediate positive sign is that with Biren Singh gone, the Indian security forces seem to be getting a freer hand in restoring law and order. 

The former Union Home Secretary AK Bhalla, the sitting Governor of Manipur, has asked armed groups to submit the looted weapons and central security forces are busy dismantling duty posts in the buffer zones.

In the recent review meeting held on 1 March, Union Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah reportedly asked all roads to be opened by 8 March, with a view to accelerate the fencing of the international boundary. The question is, can a forced peace from the Centre without taking the two parties into consultation last?

Enforcers of Peace

Restoration of peace is necessary, but several challenges remain. Without the delivery of justice and the government evoking a sense of working toward a solution acceptable to both parties concerned, any peace imposed by a third party would be difficult to sustain for long. It would be immature for the current Union government to think it can just intervene with the imposition of the President’s Rule (in any case imposed too late) and expect that a few kicks here and there would bring back normalcy. Apart from being highly insensitive, such type of thinking is rather naive.

The central government did too little too late. It cannot expect to absolve itself by riding into the ruins and making big proclamations.

The delay in Singh's resignation has only made matters worse for those sent to clean up the mess. Stitching up the emotional and physical divide in Manipur now is going to be an uphill task for his successor.

The fact that Singh was finally made to resign by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of a proposed no-confidence motion in the Manipur Assembly (which he was likely to lose) indicates that for Delhi, the throne matters more than the people.

Peace efforts at this point need a humane and empathetic touch. The manufactured peace Centre is attempting to forge is not likely to last.

Divides Too Deep

Even a forced peace might take time to seep into the ground as the seeds of hatred have been sown too deep on both sides of the divide. The last two years have been a nightmare for both communities. The fact that the state government under Singh was outrightly partisan makes it all the more difficult for the Kuki-Zo people to accept being under the Meitei majority Manipur government again. Kuki-Zo leaders have declared that Biren’s resignation is insignificant now and that seeking a 'Separate Administration' for the hills is the only way forward.

Meitei civil society organisations (CSOs) are equally firm about keeping Manipur’s 'territorial integrity' intact and have warned of consequences if the ‘Lakshmana Rekha’ (line of control) is crossed.

One thing is clear: it would now be very difficult for Kuki-Zo and the Meiteis to live together again like before.

Steps to Normalcy: Disarming and Deradicalisation

While it would take time to solve a conflict of this magnitude – arguably the worst domestic civil war since India’s independence – some immediate steps from the state's Governor could ease suffering and build trust.

The first pertains to the recovery of 6,000 weapons looted from the state armoury. Following the Governor’s appeal, some 300-600 of these stolen weapons have reportedly been returned. The deadline for returning looted arms has been extended to 6 March.

The surrender of looted weapons is paramount for peace to return as these might otherwise end up in the hands of secessionist groups. Some weapons are feared to have reached the safe havens of Myanmar already.

Meanwhile, the government's claims of the surrendered weapons have raised eyebrows as well with some critics calling it an 'eyewash'. While sophisticated guns including snipers and M16s had been looted through the prolonged crisis, the surrendered weapons mainly consist of Bore Rifles or Kartoos, making the entire process look a bit farcical to synical eyes. There is an urgent need for transparency regarding the submitted weapons vis-à-vis the looted ones.

Moreover, those surrendering looted arms are likely to be perpetrators of violence as well. Giving them blanket immunity in exchange for the arms, despite knowing very well what these arms were being used for, raises questions and mistrust among the communities.

If the culprits are not prosecuted, and deterrence is not put in place, armouries might be looted again. It will also set a bad precedent for other parts of the country.

Though the the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) is often considered draconian, Manipur’s situation today is the rarest of rare. Since it is a central legislation implemented by the Indian Army, it is likely to be acceptable as a neutral enforcer of law and order, as opposed to Manipur Police or the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), which are seen by the Kuki-Zo as pro-majority.

At present, most of the valley areas don’t come under AFSPA and the Meiteis have had a contentious relationship with it in the past. Imposing AFSPA uniformly, both in the valley and the hills, can aid in recovering arms and catching miscreants.

Rehabilitating Volunteers, Reimagining Roadways

Another related issue is the case of the battle-hardened 'village volunteers', most of whom have lost their homes and family members. Their pain and hurt is real and in the absence of any grievance redressal or investigations, many are still out for 'revenge'.

Simply taking their guns from them is no panacea for peace — and rather increases their chances of joining groups inimical to the interest of the country.

Rather that imposing a fractured peace, a wholesome solution would require a proper plan for rehabilitation of the displaced and radicalised youth.

Secondly, even if the ethnic violence stops and the government manages to forcefully open up the roads between hills and the valley, it will take a long time for Kukis and Meiteis to travel freely to each other’s territories. The case of Manipur State Transport buses coming up empty last year when Biren Singh tried to forcefully bring valley people to the hills remains a case in point.

Any reintegration or assimilation between the two communities must be allowed to happen organically. A forced ‘integration’ is likely to be counterproductive.

What can be done instead is to ensure that the supply of essential food grains, oil, gas, and medicine reaches both the valley and the hill areas connected via the valley. As of today, essential commodities reach Imphal valley via the so-called ‘Kuki Hills’ but essential commodities coming to Kuki-Zo dominated districts like Churachandpur, Tengnoupal, etc through Imphal remain blocked.

A ring road connecting Kuki-Zo districts must be immediately sanctioned so that communication is not hindered till such time when the valley areas will be safe for travel.

For the Meitei civilians too, the alternative road via Ukhrul to Mao can be widened so that they can access the Dimapur-Imphal road without having to cross Kuki areas. Incidentally, bridges made by Kukis through crowd-funded initiatives to connect Chandel and Churachandpur districts were blocked after protests from the Meiteis.

Thirdly, the existing hospitals and educational institutions in the hill areas should be upgraded as the inability of Kuki-Zo people to access Imphal has greatly hampered their education and healthcare. There is, for instance, not even one cardiologist in the Churachandpur despite it being the largest of the Kuki-Zo districts.

Beyond the War on Drugs 

Fourthly, since poppy cultivation, drugs, and narco-terrorism have been much talked about during this conflict, these issues should be addressed on a war footing. In the recent review meeting, Amit Shah vowed to eradicate drugs in Manipur. While poppy plantation is one part of it, the larger trade is related to synthetic drugs. The Meitei, Kuki-Zo and Naga communities are all involved in this illicit trade and there are rumours of allegations of suggesting the involvement of some very powerful people, both in the power corridors of Imphal and mainland India.

If there is a war on drugs, there should be a zero-tolerance policy for all. The whip should not be heavier on the poor farmer-cultivators.

In the aftermath of the violence, a deep sense of injustice continues to prevail among the masses. Judicial inquiries and their findings need to be hastened without further postponement in order to gain the trust of affected communities.

It is unfortunate that even today, the Justice Lamba Commission – instituted under the MHA to investigate the ethnic violence that unfolded since May 2023 in Manipur – has not tabled its report, even though the deadline has been extended twice already. Even the Supreme Court-monitored judicial inquiry commission is silent to this date and there has been no known investigation or arrest made of the perpetrators of grave violence and alleged gang rapes.

Besides, the leaked audio tapes of former chief minister, implicating him for the violence, need to be investigated without any political interference. 

A little proactiveness on these fronts might help restore the trust of people (on both sides) in the intentions of the Government of India.

A Naga CM on the Cards?

While the Manipur Assembly is in suspended animation now, the issue of the vacant CM's chair will come up soon. Owing to the sectarian nature of the clashes, a Naga candidate may be given serious consideration as the Nagas are not directly involved in the conflict. Kukis do hold a grouse against some Naga tribes allegedly allowing safe passage to Meitei militants to and from Myanmar. However, at least till such a time as a negotiated settlement is reached, a Naga CM might be seen more neutral to both sides.

Manipur has been left to bleed for far too long, and the Governor’s efforts to restore peace on the ground should be supplemented by empathy and political will from the Centre to resolve it. 

On 25 February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Assam to attend the Advantage Assam 2.0 business summit. Yet, Manipur was deemed too far away!

Ironically, much was said about India’s Act East policy and the Trans-Asian Highway network at the summit. The question is whether those who gazed at the great Southeast Asian market from the Assamese window realise that the door to Southeast Asia is via Manipur. Unless peace is restored in Manipur, 'Act East' will remain a pipe dream. The Kuki-Zo people control most of the border region in Manipur and much of the Trans-Asian highway in Myanmar bordering India while the Meiteis control the Imphal section. Finding a just and honourable solution to Manipur's crisis is tied to the success of India’s prospects across the border.

Lastly, there has been much chatter about an ‘invisible hand’ stoking this conflict. The fact that during the first few days of the conflict, Meitei groups went around burning even Meitei Churches around Imphal valley, hints that this conflict is not just a Kuki-Meitei binary. An ‘invisible hand’ is indeed involved, and the answer perhaps is ‘blowin' in the wind’!

(Dr David Hanneng is Assistant Professor in the Department of History, Guskara College, Burdwan University; he writes on issues that affects Northeast India. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)