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After the humiliating defeat in the Bihar 2025 elections, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led alliance is in shock. The RJD has promised to introspect, but according to media reports, the entire alliance is in a state of ‘collective disbelief’. Congress leader KC Venugopal said, “The result from Bihar is unbelievable, not only for the Congress but also for the people and our alliance partners. Because a 90 percent plus strike rate for a party has not happened in Indian history.”
The party has asserted that "It is doing a thorough analysis and collecting the data. Within a week or two, we will come out with concerned proof". The statement by the Congress leader is an indication that the party is hinting at potential 'vote chori' allegations during the elections and the reason for the massive loss.
Even Rahul Gandhi, in his tweet, wrote, “The result of Bihar is shocking. We failed in an election that was inherently unfair from the start. This is a fight for the defence of the Constitution and democracy. Congress and INDIA will deeply analyse the result, and to save democracy, we will continue our efforts to make it more impactful.”
So was vote chori really behind the failure? The better question, perhaps, would be, can Congress keep up the pressure with the 'vote chori' campaign irrespective of the demoralising Bihar verdict, till the time it makes a dent among voters?
In a press conference held before these results were out, Rahul Gandhi had made accusations of ‘vote chori’ in the Haryana Assembly election. He claimed to provide "solid proof" of how electoral rolls were manipulated to benefit the BJP in the state. In this press conference, Gandhi also stated that he was confident similar tactics would be employed to influence the Bihar elections.
Now, the result is out, and, as expected, Rahul Gandhi and his party are blaming manipulation for the loss. The big question is, did the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win due to vote chori, or are the Congress Party and Rahul Gandhi trying to find an easy way out of accepting any responsibility for the electoral humiliation?
Let's look at Gandhi's vote chori assertions first.
Gandhi has been relentlessly attacking the Election Commission of India (ECI) for the alleged addition and deletion of votes to benefit the BJP. He has made attempts to substantiated his allegations by holding press conferences, during which he presents detailed presentations, claiming to provide authentic data and proof.
This was followed by another presentation about the Assembly constituency Alland in which Gandhi spoke about the alleged attempt delete almost 6,000 votes from a polling booth. He was of the opinion that this was done systematically from a centralised system. An FIR was lodged regarding Mahadevpura, and a Special Investigation Team (SIT) was constituted by the Karnataka government to investigate the entire affair.
Gandhi has accused the ECI of refusing to give crucial information to catch culprits. Although ECI states it has been cooperating with the SIT and has provided all the, required information, Gandhi has countered that the three most crucial pieces of information—destination IP, device destination port, and OTP trails—which can lead to the culprits, have not been provided, despite the SIT writing 18 letters.
There is no doubt that a large section of the people have serious doubts over the efficacy and fairness of the election. These people believe that something is amiss with the electoral process and that elections are being manipulated.
Several credible surveys conducted by independent agencies, such as the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, have highlighted the fact that the EC‘s credibility is declining. If allegations had been investigated by the EC with the assistance of independent agencies, then it would be easier to reach a conclusion.
Thr truth is, fairness of democracy becomes a distant metric in the face of everyday needs of ration, bijli and jobs and the NDA's welfare promises and revadis appear more credible, given they are in power in both the centre and state.
The issue, then, is about why the EC is not ready for any investigation. Former CECs, such as BS Rawat, have been articulating that if they had been in the EC, they would have ordered an investigation. It is also observed that even rules are being changed to avoid disclosing information about polling, and amusing arguments are presented by the EC.
While questions have been raised on the effectiveness of the Vote Chori campaign, they remain redundant till the time the allegations of fraud are investigated. Therein lies the Catch 22 for Congress (and voters). Can Congress remain true to its voter fraud campaign if it does not help it win elections? And conversely, can the impact of the voter fraud campaign on electoral results truly be gauged without fair investigation into the claims of fraud?
In this context, when Rahul Gandhi hints at some manipulation in the Bihar election, a section of the voters is willing to believe it. This suspicion grows when, before the polling results, critics and observers argued that the election was a very close one, with a slight edge to the NDA. But no one predicted such huge astronomical numbers, except one exit poll.
In fact, agencies like Axis My India, which carry credibility, also got their numbers massively wrong, after predicting 121 to 141 seats.
I don’t know if the Bihar election has also been allegedly manipulated, as I don't have any proof. However, Gandhi’s allegations should be thoroughly investigated. If he is found to be lying, the law should take its course.
Conversely, if his allegations are found to be true, those responsible for this scam should be held accountable, regardless of their position. The suspicions will only die if the matter is investigated. And if the system is not responding to his allegations, then it is incumbent on Rahul to take the matter to its logical conclusion.
He should take whatever steps are necessary to compel the government and the EC to investigate the matter; he should emulate the tactics Gandhi employed during the freedom struggle. Glimpses of it were seen earlier in the Bihar yatras. But the party soon lost steam on ground, seemingly owing to internal political maths with its own allies on ground.
If Gandhi merely accuses without taking action, then the time will come when his accusations will have no takers. And the issue will be dead.
But for now, let's set aside the vote chori allegations and analyse the performance of the RJD and Congress dispassionately. Upon doing so, one can safely say that the Opposition has royally messed up the election.
They had their best chance, but a lack of coordination between the allies in the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) and the absence of a clear vision led them to an unprecedented debacle.
Above all, Rahul Gandhi also disappeared for weeks of the polls and was seen instead in Colombia. This was a significant mistake, and it further reinforced the perception that Rahul is not a full-time politician. After the Yatra, if Rahul had stayed put in Bihar and marshalled his resources and army like a general, the result would have been different, at least for the party.
Then, it also sent the wrong signal that Congress was not willing to project Tejashwi Yadav as the CM face. The question was asked many times, but Congress did not provide a clear answer each time. This happened when surveys predicted that Tejaswi Yadav was far ahead of Nitish as the CM candidate.
It remained a mystery why it was not done by Congress. By the time Ashok Gehlot brokered the peace between the two parties with the blessing of Sonia Gandhi and Lalu Yadav, it was too late. This provided an opportunity for the NDA and media to paint a picture that all is not well in MGB, causing irreparable damage to the alliance.
But the elephant in the room is that if there was such a strong undercurrent for Nitish and Modi, then how could MGB have survived?
'Vote chori' or no chori, defeat was certain. However, it is now time for Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav to reflect on why they lost an election , despite 20 years of incumbency by the current government (assuming the elections were fair), and why the people of Bihar are not willing to trust them. Politics is a 24-hour game, and part-timers have no space.
(Ashutosh is co-founder of SatyaHindi and a former member of AAP. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)