Modi’s Last Big Cabinet Overhaul Before 2029 Polls Targets 'Super Majority'

The Cabinet reshuffle is expected before the Monsoon Session of the Parliament, reports Manish Anand.

The likely Cabinet reshuffle and expansion in the Modi-led government may be the last major exercise before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

(Photo: Aroop Mishra/The Quint)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is most likely to reshuffle and expand the Council of Ministers before the Monsoon Session of Parliament. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s new team of national office-bearers will also likely to be unveiled by June-end.

The two widely discussed and speculated future events are linked to the BJP showing an urgency in gaining a “super majority” in Parliament. The party is racing to significantly boost the strength of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as part of a larger plan to push mega and ambitious legislative initiatives.

The BJP celebrated the 12th anniversary of the Modi-led NDA government at the Centre at New Delhi's Bharat Mandapam on 9-10 June. The party leaders in their informal discussions with media persons shared a sense that the government will initiate the Delimitation legislation as a package, along with the Women's Reservation (Amendment) Bill, only when assured of two-thirds of majority in Parliament—in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha both.

Hints have also been dropped that the “one nation, one election” project, a theme close to the heart of the Prime Minister, could also be pushed once the Delimitation Bill sails through Parliament. 

Cabinet Expansion Inevitable

Within the BJP circles, the party’s zeal to hit the two-thirds majority has gained the description of achieving “super majority” in Parliament. This feat alone can help push the contentious legislation for Delimitation and Women's Reservation months after the embarrassment faced by the government in failing to do so. 

With the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in a rupture and 20 rebel Lok Sabha MPs merging with the National Citizens Party of India (NCPI)—unheard of until the dramatic Sunday evening this week—the Prime Minister has to accommodate the new alliance outfit in his government. Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar and Sudeep Bandyopadhyay are in the reckoning to join the government as Cabinet ministers.

Besides, the BJP has to accommodate new entrants—and those who in the next few days or weeks may join the party or the NDA. The prospects of the Cabinet expansion have become new pulls for defections from smaller regional outfits, with more parties facing stress test to hold their respective flocks together.

BJP Recast May Trigger Cabinet Reshuffle

This week, Union Minister for Defence Rajnath Singh has hosted high-stakes late-evening meetings with Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP President Nitin Nabin, BJP General Secretary (Organisation) BL Santhosh, and the RSS's political pointsman Arun Kumar. In the past, these meetings have preceded Cabinet reshuffling.

The new national office-bearers of the BJP, as per sources, will be unveiled latest by 31 June. This will wrap up the transition from Team JP Nadda to Team Nitin Nabin. Some of the ministers currently serving in the Modi government may be asked to work for the organisation.

Two such ministers have already been assigned the organisational roles — Delhi BJP president Harsh Malhotra and the Uttar Pradesh state unit chief Pankaj Choudhary.

Both have to quit the Modi government in line with the 'one man, one post' principle. A few ministers are also likely to work in the organisation. The Cabinet reshuffle is thus linked to the recast of the BJP national office-bearers-team rejig.

Factors to Shape up Cabinet Reshuffle

As the Modi government approaches the halfway mark of its third term, the Cabinet reshuffle, besides catering to the expansion of the NDA tent, may aim to achieve a few objectives—tuning in for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, sending minor messaging ahead of the high-stakes Assembly elections in 2027, adjusting to Gen Z pulls with younger faces, carrying out performance appraisals, and phasing out those in their seventies (with minimal exceptions).

Those who are in their seventies—like Giriraj Singh, Hardeep Singh Puri, Bhagirath Choudhary, V Somanna, and Rao Inderjeet Singh—do face the risk of being phased out from the government. Rajnath Singh, due to the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, is likely to benefit from the rule of exception as applied for the Prime Minister.

Though the BJP doesn’t admit that 75 years is an age ceiling, the benchmark has been seen applied in the past in dropping ministers from the Council of Ministers. 

Punjab, Delhi and West Bengal in Focus

Union Minister Ravneet Singh Bittu's Rajya Sabha term expires on 21 June, and he has failed to secure a renomination. His exit from the government will necessitate a replacement from Punjab with a clear criterion of finding a suitable Jatt Sikh candidate as the new minister.

While BJP General Secretary Tarun Chugh, who comes from Amritsar, has joined the Rajya Sabha, the party may not find much political messaging by making him a minister. 

Once Harsh Malhotra takes over as the Delhi BJP chief and resigns from the government, there will be no minister from the national capital. The spotlight is on New Delhi Lok Sabha MP Bansuri Swaraj, a young face with appeal among Gen Z voters, and Virendra Sachdeva, who ended the BJP's power drought by leading the party to victory in the 2025 Assembly polls.

Sachdeva is not a Member of Parliament, which may work against him, unless the party sends him to the Rajya Sabha in the near future.

As the party's in-charge, BJ Panda has to his credit the successes in state elections in Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, and Assam. With the BJP in power in Odisha, Panda may be in the reckoning if the Prime Minister decides to drop Dharmendra Pradhan, the education minister, who is facing flak for examination rows in the country. 

West Bengal is likely to be the focus state after the BJP wrested power in the state. While at least two of the TMC rebels are likely for inductions in the government, the BJP may give more representation to West Bengal from its own ranks.

Since the likely Cabinet reshuffle and expansion in the Modi-led government may be the last major exercise before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP top brass is holding intense discussions with inputs from the PMO officials and the RSS leadership. 

(The author is a senior Delhi-based journalist who has tracked the BJP and the Prime Minister's Office for more than two decades as a part of India's leading English-language dailies.)