In hindsight, the twists in the Maharashtra political drama are not entirely surprising. Since 2014, the Modi-Shah-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been locked in a tussle with the Thackerays’ family-run Shiv Sena for supremacy in a state that sends the second-highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha (48) and is home to the country’s biggest financial hub, Mumbai.
The battle is now in its climactic round, with the Modi-Shah duo weaponising Sena rebel Eknath Shinde in a bid to realise their ambition of total domination through the annihilation of a pesky former ally.
The events that have unfolded over the past few days have the duo’s imprint all over. Firstly, the use of Gujarat as the chosen shelter for the rebel MLAs. Shinde drove from Mumbai to Surat with his flock at night after the MLC elections and holed up in a five-star hotel there.
The Maharashtra crisis has the Modi-Shah duo’s imprint all over. Former BJP Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis, was merely a cover for the real actors.
It is believed that the unseen hand of Gujarat BJP chief CR Patil was guiding the operation. The flight from Gujarat is said to have been arranged by Surat municipal corporation standing committee chairman Paresh Patil, a close aide of CR Patil.
Ironically, Fadnavis himself appears to have had little inkling about the full contours of the plan that was to unfold and destroy his dream of becoming Chief Minister again.
In the long term, the BJP hopes that Shinde’s rebellion, which has left Uddhav Thackeray with a rump of MLAs, will begin the process of Shiv Sena’s demise.
With Congress in terminal decline anyway and NCP facing a leadership question, too, without Pawar to lead the party in future, the field is clear for the BJP to rule the second-most important state in India.
How Gujarat BJP Chief Guided the Operation
It is believed that the unseen hand of Gujarat BJP chief CR Patil was guiding the operation. Former Maharashtra BJP Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis, was merely a cover for the real actors and his flurry of activities successfully diverted media attention from the real players. Ironically, Fadnavis himself appears to have had little inkling about the full contours of the plan that was to unfold and destroy his dream of becoming Chief Minister again.
The flight from Gujarat is said to have been arranged by Surat municipal corporation standing committee chairman Paresh Patil. A close aide of CR Patil, he, too, worked secretly in a bid to get the MLAs as far away from Mumbai as possible for fear that Uddhav Thackeray and his aides would get to them and persuade some to change their minds.
The choice of Guwahati as the next destination is interesting. Not only is it on the other side of the country, but Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is also a worthy lieutenant of Amit Shah. He could be trusted to do whatever was necessary to keep the rebels together and prevent wavering ones from escaping.
Gujarat came into play again in the drama when a secret meeting was arranged in Vadodara between Shinde and Shah to seal the deal. Reports said Fadnavis was present, but going by his ignorance of future developments, he was clearly absent when crucial details were finalised.
The MLAs were shifted to BJP-ruled Goa only after the numbers were in place and the Maharashtra Governor was on board to call for a floor test. It’s a short, straight route from Goa to Mumbai.
Modi-Shah Want the Lotus in Full Bloom
Like all Modi-Shah plans, this operation, too, was hatched in complete secrecy. Key persons like Fadnavis, CR Patil and Paresh Patil were given as much information as necessary. The full details were known only to the top two.
There is little doubt that Modi and Shah intend to fight this round to the finish. Uddhav Thackeray has been a thorn in their side since they first ascended to power. Used to the soft treatment of the late Pramod Mahajan, Atal Behari Vajpayee and even LK Advani, Thackeray found it difficult to stomach the domineering ways of the duo from Gujarat.
In any case, while Mahajan, Vajpayee and Advani were content to let the Sena be the senior partner in Maharashtra, Modi and Shah want the lotus in full bloom everywhere.
In the very first assembly election, when they fought together in the state in 2014, the BJP ensured that the Sena was downsized and the saffron party emerged on top to install the state’s first BJP Chief Minister.
Relations only worsened after that till finally, the alliance broke after the 2019 assembly polls and the Sena crossed the floor to join hands with the rival Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress to form the coalition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.
It was a slap in the face for Modi and Shah, who have not forgiven Thackeray or NCP’s Sharad Pawar, the architect of the alliance, for the humiliation.
What's in Store for Eknath Shinde?
It’s payback time now. The BJP is in power, and to rub Thackeray’s face in the mud, it has appointed a former Sainik as Chief Minister while singing paeans of praise for Bal Thackeray.
But that’s the short-term gain. In the long term, the BJP hopes that Shinde’s rebellion, which has left Uddhav Thackeray with a rump of MLAs, will begin the process of Sena’s demise.
The fight is on between Shinde and Thackeray to prove which is the real Shiv Sena and who is the true inheritor of Bal Thackeray’s legacy. This fight will go to the Election Commission, to court, and ultimately to the voters. The BJP is hoping that the long-drawn battle will weaken both and ultimately finish off the Sena.
The Congress is in terminal decline anyway and there are questions about the NCP’s future, too, without Pawar to lead the party. This leaves the field clear for the BJP to rule the second-most important state in India. Uttar Pradesh is already tied up.
Modi and Shah are determined that the saffron juggernaut will march on without allies to drag it down. They have managed to enfeeble another troublesome ally, Nitish Kumar in Bihar, by using Chirag Paswan to pull him down during the 2020 assembly election.
It’s a different matter that having achieved their purpose, the duo dumped Chirag in favour of his more malleable uncle. It will be interesting to see what fate awaits Shinde in the coming months.
(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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