It is not often that the Indian cricket team does not qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup. In the last 12 years, such an occurrence has happened only once — in 2021.
What is even rarer, though, is a team staring at the brink of elimination from the race to the semi-finals after only a solitary defeat. In 2021, for instance, it took India two defeats — against Pakistan and New Zealand — to be knocked out of the event.
Yet, such is the precarious position India occupy ahead of their second Super 8 fixture against Zimbabwe that there exists a scenario in which they could still miss out on a semi-final berth even if they win both of their remaining matches in this stage.
How Did It Come to This?
To understand how India arrived here, one must look beyond the defeat to South Africa in isolation. The loss itself might not have proved so damaging had it not come by such an overwhelming margin. Not only did India lose, but they were handed a 76-run defeat, which has caused a major dent to their Net Run Rate (NRR), which now stands at -3.800.
Consequently, South Africa’s NRR is currently +3.800. The other crucial variable in this equation is the West Indies’ NRR. Shai Hope’s men defeat Zimbabwe by a massive margin of 107 runs in their first Super 8 fixture, which has taken their NRR to +5.350.
Why India Will Be Rooting for a South Africa Win
For India, the ideal qualification pathway would be one in which NRR calculations become irrelevant. To achieve that, a three-way tie — where three teams finish on four points — must be avoided.
The Indian fans will be hoping for a South African triumph over the West Indies, at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad on 26 February. Should they do so, the fixture between India and West Indies on 1 March, scheduled to be held in Kolkata’s Eden Gardens, will become a virtual quarter-final, with no bearings on NRR.
However, if the West Indies were to defeat South Africa, they would reach four points even if they subsequently lose to India. Meanwhile, a South African win against Zimbabwe would also take them to four points. In that scenario, India would not only need to win both their remaining matches but do so by substantial margins to repair their battered NRR.
Have India Ever Been Eliminated From Semis Race With Just 1 Defeat?
Since the inception of this competition, there has been only once instance in two decades where India could not qualify for the semi-finals despite winning all of their matches except one.
In the 2012 edition, which was played in Sri Lanka, India defeated both England and Afghanistan to top their group, and then faced Australia, Pakistan and South Africa in the Super 8. Despite beating Pakistan and South Africa, a heavy defeat to Australia cost India their place in the semi-finals, as the Aussies and Pakistan went through courtesy of a healthier NRR.