Back-to-back operations and mounting casualties of security personnel in the Rajouri-Poonch belt of Jammu and Kashmir have highlighted a strange paradox in the region's security scenario.
The overall levels of militancy appear to be plummeting sharply in the erstwhile State. The number of total fatalities in J&K so far this year is 117, which is the lowest in 3 decades.
Police sources told The Quint over the weekend that 63 militants have been killed in 2023 so far, against 180 in the previous year, of which only 21 are local recruits, which is again a record low. 42 alone are foreign infiltrators from Pakistan.
This highlights how even local participation in militancy has come down significantly.
The BJP stands to benefit from these dwindling figures as such a tangible improvement is in line with its political messaging that scrapping Article 370 will help get rid of violence in J&K.
Rajouri-Poonch Belt: A Security Anomaly
Yet at the same time, the increasing frequency of operations resulting in the deaths of security forces in Jammu’s Rajouri-Poonch belt appears to have caused a sense of disquiet. These gunfights which involve militants operating under the cover of forested ridges and ravines, across the rolling hills of Pir Panjal, and then striking the search parties from secured positions, are manifestations of the evolving tactics that they have adapted.
These shifts have turned this border belt into a security anomaly that is at odds with the government's claims of normalcy. This week, at least five soldiers including two captains were among those killed during the operation in the Bazimal area of the Kalakote region of Poonch.
These two districts now account for 40 percent of the total security-related fatalities in J&K this year.
On Friday, the Northern Army commander Lt General Upendra Dwivedi said that the two militants who were slain during the 29-hour-long Bazimal gunfight had been operating in the region for a long time, and were also involved in previous attacks on security forces.
He said that some of the militants in the region were retired Pakistani army soldiers, adding yet another dynamic to the present state of militancy in J&K.
According to General Dwivedi, the militants engaged by the forces in the 23 November operation were likely trained in Afghanistan, and “were planning to initiate terror-related activities to cause fear within the civilian population and provoke unrest in the area.”
He also suggested that militants were planning to disrupt the forthcoming Parliamentary elections in the Union Territory.
Top police sources told The Quint that another three militants were sighted in the Budhal area of Rajouri on Saturday following which the search operations in the area were launched.
So, what does this mean for the long-term security situation in J&K?
The Security Preponderance in Kashmir
Bigger than the Kashmir Valley, the Rajouri-Poonch areas are full of forests and hills. The region abuts the mountain range of Pir Panjal that hems Kashmir on the southern side. The Rajouri-Poonch mountains also jut out onto Pakistani-occupied Kashmir. It is not typically conducive to security dominance compared to the plateaued Kashmir Valley.
This quality makes the region vulnerable to new militant conspiracies. “This topography makes it easier for militants to cross over to the Indian side, then upon sensing danger, they either return or flee towards the Kashmir side,” said Shesh Paul Vaid, former Director General of J&K Police.
Security experts believe that this heavy security preponderance in Kashmir is motivating the militants to carry out attacks in less secure regions.
“Terrorists are driven by this very primitive logic that they will have to harm us one way or the other,” said Ajay Sahni, Executive Director at the Institute of Conflict Management, New Delhi. “There was nothing much going on in Poonch-Rajouri until the security forces managed to fully dominate what were earlier the core areas of insurgency, like Anantnag, Sopore, or Baramulla.”
Militants Inciting Communal Tensions
During his press conference on Friday, General Dwivedi said that Pakistan was making attempts to push foreign militants into this region due to a lack of support from the local population. He said that the militants killed by security forces in Bazimal were well-trained mercenaries. “Hence [it] took some time for us to eliminate them but our brave soldiers, while caring least for their lives, achieved this commendably,” he added.
This means that Pakistan is resurrecting older tactics to create a new security crisis for forces in the Poonch-Rajouri region.
“During the 1990s, we had Pakistani army regulars embedded within the terrorist ranks also,” Vaid said. “That’s not new. But it now appears that destabilising this border region is part of the overall calculus of terrorists.”
This trend appears to have begun in October 2021 when the region witnessed the longest-ever encounter, resulting in the killing of nine army personnel including two Junior Commissioner Officers (JCOs).
Since then, the area has seen multiple high-impact incidents that have ignited security concerns.
Earlier this year, militants shot seven unarmed Hindu civilians in Dhangri village in Rajouri. The attacks prompted the government to restart the controversial Village Defence Guard (VDG) program that entails arming and training the villagers so that they are able to stave off such deadly attacks.
Recruit More Locals in the Police
Similar attacks where militants capitalised on the tough terrain in the region were seen this year in Bhimber Gali, Bhatta Durian, Kandi, Narla, and Behrote areas of Rajouri and Poonch. The Dhangri attack was consequential in the sense that it had threatened to incite communal passions in the area.
“Rajouri and Poonch are Muslim majority areas but unlike Kashmir which is nearly homogenous, minorities in the region are scattered evenly across the towns and villages,” said Zafar Choudhary, editor and author based in Jammu. “So that heightens the risks of communalisation when such attacks occur.”
But Choudhary also asserted that it was mostly the Muslim residents of these areas that were the primary sources of intelligence for security forces.
There have been several occasions when security forces have arrested the local villagers on allegations of providing help to the militants. Earlier this year, the National Investigative Agency (NIA) arrested Nisar Ahmad and Mushtaq Ahmad, the two residents of Gunsai village in Poonch, for allegedly sheltering militants involved in the Dhangri attack.
Separately in April, J&K Police’s Special Operations Group units arrested one Moulvi Manzoor, a cleric from the Markaz-ul-Maarif seminary in the Bathindi area of Jammu, for allegedly having links with militants involved in the ambush on forces near Bhatta Durian area on 20 April earlier this year.
However, security experts also understand these to be outlier cases that do not reflect the general trend. Vaid said that the J&K Police must recruit more local youth as Special Police Officers (SPOs). “Locals have more knowledge of the terrain, they are aware of the climate, routes, and topography. They will pick the enemy from the hideouts,” he said.
Jammu Attacks a Success of Security Gains Elsewhere
Last week, General Dwivedi said that up to 25 militants could likely be operating in the Bazimal area which makes it probable that more attacks might be in the offing. “The two terrorists [killed during the encounter on 23 November] were active for the past year and we were not able to find them. Someone was providing weapons, ammunition, and also information,” he said.
He asserted that the militants were part of the same group responsible for the civilian killings in Dhangri, as well as for the deaths of two civilians outside Alpha TCP in Rajouri town earlier last year, along with the attacks on security forces at Kandi in which five army men were killed.
“Since Poonch, in Rajouri district, is connected with the rest of the country through a highway, there is a high probability of more terrorists lurking there,” he added.
However, one view of the recurrent attacks in Jammu is also that they reflect the successes of counter-insurgency elsewhere in the Union Territory which is why militants end up fortifying themselves in an area that is very difficult to approach.
“It is a response to the significant domination by security forces who are able to come into villages and towns,” Sahni said. “Definitely, there seems to be a shift in weaponry and there is far better training and accuracy. The element of surprise and terrain dominance is on their side. But this is also part of the regional shifts that we see from time to time.”
(Shakir Mir is an independent journalist. He tweets at @shakirmir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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