How Lula Overturned a First-Round Deficit to Beat Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has won a massive election victory, giving him an unprecedented fourth term that will place him amongst the longest serving democratic leaders. In defeating Flavio Bolsonaro, a candidate favoured and reportedly aided by US President Trump, Lula’s victory has resulted in a major geopolitical upset and also broken the momentum of right-wing victories in Latin American countries such as those in Argentina, Ecuador Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica and Honduras. The election has also given a lifeline to BRICS, the alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and new members Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates; since a Bolsonaro victory may have seen Brazil walk out of the organisation on which the Global South and India set much store. Recall Lula visited New Delhi in February this year for a state visit during which he also attended the second India-AI Impact Summit. In his talks with Prime Minister Modi, the two sides discussed a range of issues covering trade, defence, critical minerals, digital cooperation and pharmaceuticals.Not surprisingly, even while congratulations have poured in for Lula from the EU, Mexico, India, France, Canada and Russia, the United States has been silent. This is because it is certainly a set back for Trump’s Donroe Doctrine which seeks to assert US dominance in the Americas and in pursuit of which he had threatened to occupy Greenland and had actually launched a military attack on Venezuela and abducted its president Nicolás Maduro. Prime Minister Modi on the other hand has offered “heartiest congratulations to my dear friend, President Lula on his remarkable re-election victory.”Lula Wins Fourth Term In Brazil Amid Divided ElectorateLula is the first presidential candidate in Brazil who finished second in the first round and won the runoff in the second, and he is the first to win four terms. He has served two terms from 2003 to 2011 and then on from 2023 onwards. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, father of Flavio had refused to accept the outcome of the 2022 election and plotted to stage a military coup, an action for which he has been convicted and is serving a 27-year prison sentence, though through a house arrest. Flavio has now reluctantly accepted the result after Trump showed no intention of intervening on his behalf.Lula’s first round defeat galvanised his campaign and among the issues that his supporters pressed was Bolsonaro’s record on women’s rights. As a state representative in Riol, Flavio had voted against extending maternity leave and against the disarming of police officers accused of domestic violence. Lula’s campaign has also accused Meta of tilting the algorithms in its platforms to favour Flavio’s campaign.But the key role in his campaign was played by social media. After his defeat in the first round, a digital army of 10 million flooded Brazilian social media with messages, memes, and reels. They rallied millions of Brazilians with the task of blocking the return of the Bolsonaro family from power. In the first round, Flavio got a little over 56 million votes as compared to Lula’s nearly 54 million. But in the second round, Lula’s total shot up to a little over 64 million while Flavio got nearly 60 million. So where Flavio was able to add just 4 million votes, Lula added 10 million or so in the runoff. A major gaffe in the last televised debate just two days before the vote between Lula and Flavio, also helped the incumbent. He resorted to a personal attack by calling Lula “the 9 fingers,” an insulting reference to the fact that Lula lost a finger in an industrial accident when he was just 19 years old.The insult immediately backfired when Lula counterattacked, noting he had lost his finger while working in a metal working press and emphasised the need for industrial safety for the millions of Brazilian workers. This is something which, he said, was very different from Bolsonaro “who has never worked.” Flavio studied in a law school even while was employed full time in the office of a right-wing political party. Through his career he had been involved in many controversies.Lula inherits a politically divided country with record unemployment and a rising cost of living. Brazil’s public debt has surged to over 82 percent, driven by set expenditures that leave very little flexibility to the government. This could affect Lula’s core social welfare programmes such as the Bolsa Familia cash transfer programmes.He does not have a clear majority in the legislature and recent elections have actually strengthened the right wing Liberal Party making it the largest bloc in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.The result will be the need for compromise and negotiations to pass legislation, especially those related to social welfare spending. A loose coalition of centre-right parties dominates the process. In the Senate, there will be resistance to his judicial and institutional appointments. Foreign policy will require delicate handling given Lula’s antagonism with Trump. In July 2026, Trump had imposed 25 percent tariffs on a range of Brazilian products, as well as an additional 12.5 percent levy over issues of using forced labour products. Brazil has threatened to retaliate. But at present, however, the two countries have paused action as they negotiate a trade treaty. Both countries need each other, the US needs Brazilian natural resources such as critical minerals, while the latter need American technology and investment. For India, Lula’s victory is significant on several fronts. First, it preserves the cohesion of BRICS at a time when the grouping faces pressure from Washington. A Bolsonaro presidency could have weakened Brazil’s commitment to the organisation, complicating India’s efforts to use it as a platform for reforming global governance and giving the Global South a greater voice.Second, Lula’s return offers an opportunity to deepen India-Brazil ties in trade, energy, defence, agriculture and critical minerals. Both countries favour a more representative international order and reform of multilateral institutions, including the UN Security Council. However, their interests will not always coincide, particularly over relations with China and Russia.Third, Brazil’s resistance to US tariff pressure offers India a parallel case of a major developing economy seeking to preserve its strategic autonomy. Yet India should not assume that Lula’s victory will automatically ease its own difficulties with Washington. The larger lesson is that middle powers can resist external pressure while retaining room for pragmatic engagement.(Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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Topics: Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva Brazil Election Bolsonaro