West Bengal Panchayat Polls: In TMC vs BJP Face-Off, Left Maybe the Dark Horse

The Panchayat Election in West Bengal was announced on 8 June, that is to be held in 73887 seats (63229 in Gram Panchayat, 9730 in Panchayat Samiti, and 928 in Zila Parishad) across 22 districts, including the hilly districts of Darjeeling and Kalimpong, where the rural local body election is taking place after a long wait of 23 years. The political heat in Bengal is rising since this election, which will be crucial in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election next year.Keeping the bitter memories of the last Panchayat Elections marred with violence in mind, where the ruling party won 34% of the seats uncontested, opposition parties demanded the deployment of central forces, which has been accepted by the Calcutta High Court, and after a series of deliberations, the State Election Commission has asked the Central Government to deploy more than 800 companies of central force.West Bengal Panchayat Polls: TMC, BJP Fight It Out in a Violent Litmus TestThe state’s politics has changed greatly after the historic Vidhan Sabha elections of 2021. The results of the by-elections and municipal elections showed that political realignment is on the rise, driven by three factors- Region, Religion, and Resentment. This trend of change can be seen to be more crystallised after the nomination process of this Panchayat Election.There has been a huge churning in the opposition space in Bengal’s politics in the elections held in the post-2021 period, where the Left emerged as the principal opposition replacing the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Municipal Corporation and Municipality Elections, followed by the by-election in Ballygunge. But now, this trend is not only restricted to Kolkata or its neighboring districts but has also picked pace in Central Bengal.Since the nomination and withdrawal process of the Panchayat Election has been completed, the data shows a clear region-wise divide in the opposition space in Bengal.In North Bengal, the BJP has fielded more candidates than the Left or Congress in all districts except Malda. Similarly, in the Medinipur-Jangalmahal region, as per expectations, the BJP has fielded more candidates than the Left in all districts. But when it comes to Central Bengal or Greater Kolkata regions, the Left & Congress, even fighting separately in most of the places, have outdone the BJP. In Central Bengal, comprising districts like Murshidabad, Nadia, Birbhum, Purba, and Paschim Bardhaman, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM) alone has filed more nominations than the BJP. In the Greater Kolkata region, CPIM, on its own, outnumbered candidates of BJP in North 24 Parganas, Howrah, and Hooghly districts. Although, in South 24 Parganas, the BJP is ahead of CPIM but taking other Left allies into consideration, the BJP may be pushed to the third position in this district too.This is a significant development since filing nominations is a big test for an organisation which is essential to win any election in Bengal. A clear region-wise divide shows BJP in the leading position in ten districts while the Left & Congress are ahead in another ten. It should be noted that out of the ten districts where the Left & Congress are ahead of the BJP right now in terms of nomination, BJP was much ahead in terms of vote share or seat share in the last 2019 Lok Sabha or 2021 Vidhan Sabha elections.Therefore, this trend is not only due to a factor like religion; in Hindu-dominated districts like Hooghly or Bardhaman (both Purba (East) & Paschim (West)), the Left’s organisation has performed better than the BJP.Will BJP's 'OBC Hindu vs OBC Muslim' Pitch Work Against TMC in Bengal?The last Vidhan Sabha election was probably the most religiously polarised one in the history of Bengal’s politics, with one party grabbing more than 50% of the Hindu Vote Share & another party getting almost 75% of the Muslim Voters, according to the CSDS-Lok Niti data. But since then, the issues which headlined the news in Bengal, like unemployment or job-recruitment scam, were bereft of any religious angle & the BJP also might have understood that religious polarisation has reached its peak & found them to be at a disadvantageous position, eventually prompting them to initiate outreach programs towards the Muslim community. For these reasons, the religious consolidation is on the verge of decline, although expecting its complete disappearance might be unforesightful.Therefore, it is going to be very tough for the parties which were earlier getting the lion's share of votes from certain communities. This provides an opportunity for growth for parties like Congress or CPIM in their erstwhile bastions like Murshidabad or Malda, where they were reduced to rubble in the last election. They indeed succeeded in defeating the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the recently held Sagardighi by-election by almost 23,000 votes, where they gained votes from both the TMC and BJP, indicating dwindling religious consolidation.These factors, ie, region, religion, or resentment, are not exclusive, and they certainly meet at certain junctures. Religion has a role to play in the sharp region wise divide already discussed above, giving a clear edge to the Congress and Left in minority-dominated districts of Murshidabad, Malda, and some parts of Birbhum, Nadia, South & North 24 Parganas.If issues like development or deprivation dominate the election over the topics of religion, then the trend of Sagardighi can be repeated. The death of Anis Khan and the violence that occurred in Bogtui put the TMC-ruled state government in an uncomfortable situation, and moreover, issues like the under-representation of Muslims in government posts, or at the organisational level, are giving rise to resentment and rebellion both inside and outside the party.MHA Asks West Bengal Govt for Report on Post-Election ViolenceThe resentment against the state government works at various levels.At the forefront, there is a rising anti-incumbency against the state government, fueled by corruption allegations in the teacher-recruitment process in Primary and Higher Secondary schools. Former Minister Partha Chatterjee and some other key government officials are in jail. Apart from this, there are also allegations of cattle and coal smuggling. TMC District President of Birbhum Anubrata Mondal is currently in Tihar Jail in relation to cases of cow smuggling. The BJP-ruled central government is also at the receiving end regarding freezing funds for NREGA workers. As a result, lakhs of people in rural Bengal lost one of their ways of earning.There is a scope of potential resentment against the state government for handling the law and order situation. Although the nomination process went almost hassle-free compared to the last elections, as a result, only 12% of the seats going uncontested, compared to 34% of the last time. But violence continues to dominate certain pockets.As a result, till now, nine people have lost their lives. Interestingly, seven are from minority communities, and six of them are from the ruling TMC itself. Controlling violence and conducting a free, fair election will remain the biggest task in front of TMC and its government.Tripura Polls: Can CPI(M) and Congress Review West Bengal Results To Defeat BJP?In the last few weeks, various TMC leaders have expressed their discontent with ticket distribution. In a press conference with other Muslim MLAs from Malda district, including Sahina Mumtaz of the Naoda, Rabiul Alam Choudhury of Rejinagar, and Abdur Rezzaq of Jalangi, Bharatpur TMC MLA Humayun Kabir openly questioned the party's selection of panchayat candidates and filed his candidate's nomination as an Independent in 87% of the seats in his constituency. Kabir even brings up the issue of representation and mocks the party for having a state leadership centered around Kolkata. In a press conference, Giyasuddin Molla, another Muslim MLA from South 24 Parganas' Magrahat Paschim constituency, voiced his unreserved disapproval of the candidates.Former devoted Congressman and 11-term MLA from Islampur, Abdul Karim Choudhury, also protested the party's choice and held a demonstration supporting his independent candidates for the Assembly. Manoranjan Byapari, a writer who has transitioned into politics and an MLA from Balagarh in the Hooghly district, publicly called his block president a 'thief’ and accused him and the party of accepting money from the candidates. He even resigned from the party's election committee.Seven of the eight MLAs who have rebelled against the party are Muslims. The TMC has not taken any action yet against its MLAs. Therefore, the results of the Panchayat Election will depend a lot on how TMC keeps its flock together and how these dissenters perform.Panchayat Polls in Darjeeling, Kalimpong After 23 Years: Where Does TMC Stand?This Panchayat Election can give closure to the notion of realignment of Bengal Politics driven by factors like Region, Religion, Resentment, and Rebellion. The nomination reports suggest unerringly in favor of a shift; how far it can be materialised will be clear from the results. However, it shall be kept in mind that more nominations do not guarantee more votes. In the last Municipal Corporation and Municipality elections held in Bengal, the Left surpassed BJP’s vote share by almost 1.5%, contesting only 84% of the municipal wards, while the BJP contested 90%. Also, it will be interesting to see how far the violence can be curbed with the heavy deployment of central forces.However, the results in local rural body elections in Bengal are always one-sided in favor of the ruling party; the opposition indeed succeeded in leaving their mark in the 2008 elections wherein Congress and TMC both captured two Zila Parishads each, indicating a reverse trend of the electorate which materialised in much larger extent in 2009 Lok Sabha or 2011 Vidhan Sabha elections.In a nutshell, these election results can indicate the direction in which the state’s politics will flow ahead of the much important Lok Sabha Election. While the ruling TMC will want to continue their dominance, opposition parties like BJP, CPIM, or Congress will compete with both the ruling dispensation and among themselves to emerge as the principal challenger to TMC in the upcoming days.(Spandan Roy Basunia is a student at the West Bengal National University of Juridical Sciences, Kolkata. Sumanta Roy is a research scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)5 Dilemmas That Lie at the Heart of Bengal Elections 2021

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West Bengal Panchayat Polls: In TMC vs BJP Face-Off, Left Maybe the Dark Horse

A huge churning in the opposition space is evident from the Left emerging as the principal opposition to the TMC.

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