One Year After Pahalgam Terror Attack: Pakistan Has Global Leverage, India’s Diplomacy Misguided

I arrived in Srinagar from another part of Jammu & Kashmir on 22 April last year. I had just settled cozily with a heater at the centre of the city when editors began to call from Delhi, asking for articles on what was happening at Pahalgam. Poring over whatever news was available, I wrote two articles while the bloodbath was still on.Social media was bristling with calls for a retaliatory attack against Pakistan. Going against the popular grain, I wrote immediately that that was not a good idea. I gave reasons why the US and Russia had both quietly, but strongly, backed India (specifically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi) in 2019, resulting in Pakistan swiftly returning Wing Commander Abhinandan the day after he was brought down there. However, that geopolitical tide had turned, I argued. No big power would now back India.Those in charge of strategic decisions nevertheless went ahead with what they called Operation Sindoor a couple of weeks later. Both sides claimed victory—Pakistan vociferously.How Should India Handle the Next Conflict With Pakistan? Lt Gen Hooda SpeaksA year after the Pahalgam bloodbath, Pakistan is not a pariah state, or even marginalised. Rather, it has taken centrestage as the chief facilitator of negotiations to tamp down a conflict that threatens to become a third World War. It is time we realise where the West really stands with regard to terrorism, and what they call the clash of civilisations. Over the course of this year, India’s diplomatic performance has come across as flat-footed, even misguided and unsuccessful.The war in the Gulf has damaged India perhaps more than most other countries. For, not only is India one of the largest importers of oil from that region, but a lot of Indians also work there. Their remittances (estimated until recently at more than $50 million annually) are important economic bolsters.Happily, Iran has chosen to let oil flow to India from the Gulf, but has made it clear that it is doing so out of regard for the friendly and sympathetic people of India, not its government. Also encouraging is the changed tack of many of the hitherto often Islamophobic bellowing fixtures on television fight shows. Their recently expressed views could sound good to Iranian ears.Pahalgam Is the Price of New KashmirPrime Minister Modi has charted stormy waters since the Pahalgam massacre, even though many of the unsettling currents have churned beneath the surface, invisibly. The backing by the RSS Sarsanghchalak, Mohan Bhagwat, helped to keep Modi in office around his 75th birthday last September.However, a plethora of voices, some of them as unexpected as those being nice to Iran on TV—in fact, voices from across the political spectrum—have criticised him in recent months. The telling fact is that, unlike the previous decade, these voices have been heard, seen, and published.One must, in fact, laud the Prime Minister for taking things in hand on 9 May last year, and salvaging the situation for the nation with his hand firmly on the tiller.I am told that he had an extended meeting that day with some former chiefs of the Indian Armed Forces, and many other high-ranking retired officers. One of those who attended the meeting told me later that the Prime Minister heard the retired officers attentively, even listening patiently to the criticism of the Agniveer scheme. They were impressed.Instructions were issued thereafter, and strident steps taken that night to target air bases in many parts of Pakistan. That’s how the war-like situation was brought to a close with credit the next day—with some US intervention.Pahalgam and After: India's 'New Normal' is Far From IdealWhen Operation Sindoor had begun, I had found myself staying by chance in a village at the border of Baramulla and Kupwara districts, not very far from the Line of Control—hearing the booms and blasts of shelling during those tense nights.Large numbers of drones, artillery shells, and other enemy fire sought to do their worst, but India’s skilful air defence did an admirable job to deflect or burst in the air most of the incoming fire (the cause of most of the booms one heard).On the morning after the first night of Operation Sindoor, pictures and videos of fallen armament parts went around Kashmir. It is to the great credit of the people of the region that these pictures did not go viral beyond the region.Pahalgam Attack Tears Apart Kashmir's Fragile Peace Once AgainI was later told that a congratulatory message had gone to the Prime Minister from what served as the control room on that first night. All the terror training targets had been successfully hit, he was told. Just a few seconds after that jubilant message went, however, an unhappy message came in, followed by more unhappy messages over the next few minutes. It was not a good place to be. It took a long time for a repeatedly postponed media briefing to take place the next day. The choice of speakers went down well, however, bringing the nation together inclusively. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri deserves kudos for facing the challenge with unruffled, grounded sincerity.However, policymakers at higher levels continued to try and ride too many horses simultaneously. Meanwhile, there has been little sign that the situation on the ground has measurably improved. Somehow, we seem to have just muddled through the year that has passed since that horrifying tragedy.(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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From Pahalgam Attack to Today: Where Does India Stand Globally?

A year after the Pahalgam bloodbath, Pakistan is not a pariah state, or even marginalised, writes David Devadas.

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