In an unexpected development, the Centre last week revoked the President’s rule imposed in the troubled state of Manipur after almost a year.
The composition of the new "popular government" signals an effort to bring in a balance in the representation of different communities. The Chief Minister belongs to the Meitei community while the two Deputy CMs belong to the Kuki and Naga communities, respectively.
The President’s rule, which should have been imposed ab initio immediately after the violence started on 3 May 2023, was finally imposed after 21 months. Its sudden revocation now is astonishing as the situation is far from normal.
One of the Deputy CMs belonging to the Kuki community could not gather the courage to travel to Imphal to take oath, supposedly because she apprehended threat to her security.
The sad incident of a murder of a person of Meitei ethnicity in Kuki-dominated Churachandpur on 21 January is another grim reminder that the violence is still uncontrolled in the state—and the lack of trust between the conflicting communities is far from being bridged.
Peace Deferred, Governance Restored?
Apprehensions about the decision to revoke President’s Rule and its timing thus are valid because basic causes of the rampant violence afflicting Manipur since May 2023 remain unaddressed. The long-standing ethnic, political, and economic tensions among the state's diverse communities due to mistrust and disagreements over land rights, political representation, and access to resources also remain unresolved.
Beyond the ethnic divide lies a total breakdown of the state machinery, where a fractured police force left a vacuum now filled by armed vigilantes.
There is no evidence that cohesiveness within the state police and administration, which was divided on ethnic lines, has been achieved. Mistrust amongst the communities about the impartiality of instruments of state also remains unabated. Festering issues like granting Scheduled Tribe status to the Meitei community and fears of tribal groups about them being deprived of their land rights are far from settled.
The collapse of the law and order machinery was accelerated because the state police and administration failed to act impartially—and the common citizen of Manipur lost confidence in their ability to protect them.
While armed Village Volunteer Forces (VVF) appeared to emerge in this vaccum, taking to arms to protect their respective ethnic communities, the militant and subversive elements exploited the situation. They stepped in to fill the vacuum left by the police and security forces.
The situation further deteriorated because of looting of huge quantity of modern weapons and ammunition from the armouries of state armed police by anti-national elements. Most of these weapons continue to remain at large.
A Risky Transition Back to Civil Rule
It suffices to say that the President’s rule was imposed because the role of the elected state government had come under scrutiny. Allegations of administrative bias, delayed response, and failure to protect citizens had weakened public confidence. The prolonged violence had raised debates about constitutional governance, federal responsibility, and the need for neutral administration to restore peace finally leading to imposition of the President’s rule.
What is discussed above makes it apparent that the conditions have not improved enough to have the President’s Rule revoked. However, it is now a fait accompli and the new government must face up to the challenges that it is presented with.
The first and most important challenge that they must address is to demilitarise the society which continues to be flush with weapons looted from the state armouries. While the entire hill area is under Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, or AFSPA, 13 police stations in the valley, dominated by Meiteis, are not covered. Most looted weapons are reportedly in Imphal valley. Hence, it is important to extend AFSPA to the remaining areas of the valley to enable central security forces to recover these.
No Peace Without Trust and Justice
Ensuring lasting peace is possible only through impartial security arrangements. With state police deeply divided on ethnic lines, only the central security forces can ensure this, and, therefore, they must be given a free hand to operate against anti-national elements.
The task of creating an environment for dialogue among communities is essential to rebuild trust between communities. The dialogue must cover the entire gamut of issues, particularly the sensitive issues such as land rights, identity, and political safeguards.
It is important to restore faith of the public in the administration and democratic institutions of the state. Hence, ensuring accountability—both administrative and political—is important. The government and its arms must not only do justice but also appear to be doing justice.
This makes it imperative that the victims of violence are given justice at the soonest. Families of over 200 dead in the violence and the victims of gruesome rapes are looking for closure. Almost 70,000 displaced persons are still languishing in makeshift camps in extremely bad conditions.
Gita Commitee Remains Vital
Justice Gita Mittal Committee constituted in August 2023 to monitor the rehabilitation work has just been granted an extension till 31 July 2026. The committee reportedly has submitted over 40 reports so far.
For Manipur to move toward genuine recovery, the recommendations of the committee for relief and rehabilitation, restoration of homesteads and of religious places of worship, must shift from advisory to binding—and should be implemented in realistic time frame.
The recommendation of the committee about providing comprehensive psychological assistance and mental health care are extremely important— and must be implemented promptly.
Manning the Borders While Disarming Locals
Another important aspect is to beef up border security. However, the Central government has a bigger role in ensuring this.
India's porous border with Myanmar—now a corridor for cross-border conflict—demands an urgent strategic pivot, reassigning specialised forces like the Assam Rifles to their primary role in border security.
The borders are porous and pass through difficult terrain. Some reports suggest that certain VVF volunteers have easy access to Myanmar, and may even be getting involved in the ethnic conflict there.
The short-term measure to secure better security of border should include releasing the units of Assam Rifles deployed for internal security in the Northeast and reassigning them for border security. Forward deployment of Assam Rifles units on border outposts will talk a lot of time and is incumbent upon proper development of infrastructure.
The challenges that the new government faces are enormous and they must act proactively to address these. The expectation of instantaneous solutions are unrealistic as removing the entrenched ethnic polarisation, trauma among affected populations ,and the disarming of society are going to be a long drawn affair. It is also essential to ensure that fake news and misinformation are not allowed to be circulated.
The government also has the responsibility of ensuring economic recovery which is possible only through restoration of peace. Simultaneous restoration of education facilities and other infrastructure is critical besides creating avenues for livelihood within the state.
Restoring the government in Manipur will succeed only if governance is inclusive, transparent, and sensitive to the region’s complex social fabric, ensuring that democracy delivers justice and security for all communities.
(Sanjiv Krishan Sood (Retd) has served as the Additional Director General of the BSF and was also with the SPG. He tweets @sood_2. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)