Jammu & Kashmir: The Collapse of the Gupkar Alliance Right Before the Elections

Since it was formed in October 2020, the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), an amalgamation of seven major political parties in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), has finally collapsed. The PAGD, which sought the restoration of Article 370 (the special status of the erstwhile state), had claimed that it would fight using constitutional, legal, and political means to reverse the Modi government's decision.However, in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the two major parties within the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc — the National Conference (NC) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) — have decided to contest polls separately. For example, NC Vice-President Omar Abdullah declared last month that his party would field candidates from all three seats in Kashmir during the polls.The PAGD was earlier an alliance of seven parties—the Farooq Abdullah-led NC, the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP, the Communist Party of India, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference, the Jammu & Kashmir People's Movement, and the Jammu and Kashmir Awami National Conference.Was PM Modi's Kashmir Rally Aimed at the Local Audience or a National One?Abdullah, who is a former J&K chief minister (CM), added that supporting the PDP in the elections is illogical, because of the party's dismal performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. “We would have never joined the Congress-led Opposition alliance, i.e., the INDIA bloc if we knew that we would have to weaken our own party for another member (Mehbooba Mufti's PDP) of the alliance, the party that came third in the last election.”Following Abdullah's statement, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti counterattacked and said that the NC’s decision was a setback to the hopes of the people of J&K.“What the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) could not do to the PAGD was unfortunately done by one of its own members. I am hurt that we could not stand united to safeguard the rights of people of J&K. Instead of fighting over elections, we should have been fighting to get people released from jails.”This rift has not only thrown the PAGD out of gear but has also put the future of the INDIA bloc at stake in J&K.“We made a lot of efforts, but Abdullah declared that the NC would contest all three seats, that too without any consultation from us. He has himself said that the PDP is out of the alliance. They have made the PAGD a joke,” said Mufti.Kashmir Militancy: Pulwama Shows Reality Isn’t What Delhi ImaginesAmid the PAGD debacle, on 31 March, Mufti and Abdullah shared the stage during the Opposition rally held in the Ramlila Maidan in the national capital to protest the arrest of Delhi CM and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal.Despite claiming to fight the upcoming polls separately, both leaders urged people to elect the right representatives to save democracy in the country. A senior journalist based in J&K told The Quint that at the national level, both the NC and the PDP are on the same page with their support to the INDIA bloc, but in J&K they are divided. “Both the NC and the PDP are part of one flock at the national level to fight BJP and its policies, but on their home turf, the leaders are at loggerheads.”CPI(M) [Communist Party of India (Marxist)] leader Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, who is also a PAGD spokesman, claimed that he would calm the troubled waters and try to reconcile differences within the alliance, but so far, it seems to have lost its relevance in J&K.Kashmir-based political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba told The Quint that the PAGD has been on shaky ground ever since its formation in October 2020. “The alliance was formed emotionally without any serious conviction. The members did not seem to be serious about the agenda and were bound to collapse at any time. The cracks within the alliance were clearly visible back then.”The PAGD, according to people in the Valley, became irrelevant in December last year, when the Supreme Court upheld the constitutional order that struck down Article 370 in J&K.PDP leader and former minister Naeem Akhtar, without naming any party, told The Quint that some constituents within the alliance have parted ways despite his party's attempts to maintain unity and integrity. “The PAGD alliance was formed for a larger cause and the PDP has maintained its values to keep all the members united. Our party has not left the PAGD but other parties are leaving and breaking the alliance,” Akhtar argued.Similarly, PDP chief spokesperson Suhail Bukhari told The Quint that the party has always kept political differences at bay to keep the PAGD together, and it is the NC that does not want to continue with the alliance. “The PDP was the initiator of PAGD. When fear and crisis hit J&K in August 2019, we invited all the parties under one roof to safeguard the rights of the people. Despite political differences, we worked together and maintained unity but now the NC’s decision has caused disappointment to the people. The BJP has been trying hard to break an alliance that has had good public support.”PDP chief spokesperson Suhail BukhariWhy is the Rajouri-Poonch Belt a Security Anomaly in Jammu and Kashmir? The first crack in the PAGD developed in January 2021, when the People's Conference led by Sajad Lone pulled out of the alliance.When asked what went wrong with PAGD, NC leader and MP from Anantnag Lok Sabha seat Hasnain Masoodi told The Quint that it was an ideological alliance and not an electoral one.“When it comes to striving for the restoration of Article 370, the NC is on the same page with PDP. We subscribe to the same ideology but due to various factors, we have decided to contest the elections independently. Our party workers and leaders across J&K do not endorse seat sharing with other parties.”Hasnain MasoodiContrary to Masood’s remarks, J&K People’s Conference spokesperson Adnan Ashraf Mir asked that if the PAGD was not an electoral alliance then how did it contest the first-ever District Development Council (DDC) elections in 2020? “It was only during the DDC election when we found out that the NC had fielded proxy candidates in almost all the constituencies where the PAGD had fielded candidates. The breach of trust within the alliance persuaded us to quit because we did not want to give people any false hopes,” Mir told The Quint.The 2020 DDC elections were held in eight phases across 280 constituencies with the PAGD winning 110 seats, while the BJP emerged as the single largest party by winning 75 seats.Mir added that the PAGD was bound to collapse. “Since we were part of the alliance till January 2021, we observed that the parties in the PAGD were avoiding discussions on larger issues for which it was formed in the first place. The credibility of the alliance got dismantled,” he asserted.According to Noor Ahmad Baba, however, the NC might have an edge over other parties during the upcoming elections, which is why it is adamant about contesting elections independently. “The NC is much better rooted this time because unlike the PDP, they did not have any alliance with the BJP before. Being an indigenous party with its long and deep-rooted history, it can get a good chunk of votes during the elections.”(Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Kashmir. He tweets @irfanaminmalik. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)Are Gupkar Alliance’s Days Numbered After NC-PDP Rift Widens?

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Jammu & Kashmir: The Collapse of the Gupkar Alliance Right Before the Elections

The NC-PDP rift has also put the future of the INDIA bloc at stake for the Lok Sabha elections in J&K.

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