India Distances from Iran as Chabahar Corridor Hangs in the Balance

The sharp escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel is lending a new shape to India’s policy towards Tehran and its investment in Chabahar Port and the economic corridor. There seems to be a growing view that India may not want to do business with Iran in the future, if the Shia clergy remains in power.The first indication came to the fore last week, when it decided to depart from the statement given by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), of which India is also a member.The SCO had condemned Israel’s attack on Iran. India astutely stayed away from the discussion and instead said that it wanted de-escalation of conflict by using channels of diplomacy and communication.Explained: How Iran-Israel ‘Threshold War’ Has Reshaped Nuclear Escalation RulesIn other words, India has been ambivalent about its Chabahar engagement ever since it was re-negotiated in May 2016 with Iran and Afghanistan.Such a statement made it abundantly clear that India was bracing for a new reality in the region. Either it would see a regime change in Iran where it could renegotiate with the new government, or, after backing Israel so openly, India could leave the trilateral agreement with Afghanistan that involved building a corridor if a ceasefire preserves an existing status quo of a pre-eminent Shia clergy in Tehran. The reasons were both, global and regional. Though the US had been backing India in pursuing this connectivity corridor, New Delhi had its own views on that. But more on that later.The main purpose of the Chabahar project was to bypass Pakistan and to build a new corridor to Central Asia as India had been feeling cramped trading with Afghanistan and countries like Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and others. The absence of regional stability after the democratic government was overthrown in Kabul exacerbated India’s concerns about the corridor.India’s friends in the region, like Saudi Arabia and UAE, had been asking troubling questions: why did India choose to invest in Chabahar Port, located in Iran’s sea of Oman, thus giving legitimacy to a country and civilisation—originating in erstwhile Persia—that could enlarge its influence in the South Asian region through the port and beyond?They accused India of responding vigorously to artificial interests, when its real interest lay elsewhere. The lack of speed in the Chabahar project acquiring scale and joining up with the Russia-sponsored North-South corridor or INSTC was attributed to lack of investments by India. The INSTC provided cheaper and quicker alternative routes than the Suez Canal.Chabahar: Making Sense of India’s Decision to Manage a Port in IranThis writer was the first Indian to visit Chabahar after 2016 and to realise that, located in the Sistan-Balochistan province, the port represented a good fit for Indian investment in a country made distant by partition and political borders. Its inhospitable terrain notwithstanding, the people of this region could be routinely heard humming Indian songs and speaking in Hindi language, which they ironically chose to call Urdu. It was from here that the alleged Indian spy, Kulbhushan Jadhav, was picked up by Pakistani forces. He was shanghaied, also, due to an important reason that people can travel to Pakistan’s Balochistan without papers from 15 days.Pakistan’s military port of Gwadar, where the Chinese are invested, is barely 70 kilometers from Chabahar.China and Russia had in the past offered to take over Chabahar, when the Indians were finding it difficult to fund the projects, but Iran had steadfastly refused to hand it over. They were clear in their minds - the Indians will do it. There was a view that the Iranians wanted India to build the port due to its proximity to the US.They were of the belief that the US may need Chabahar more, due to its earlier military presence in Kabul.Though the American caravan has moved away from Afghanistan, they still have interest here. If they mediate in Iran or take action here, then it could change the nature of their engagement once more.'I Came to Iran to Study, Not to Survive a War... Now I Just Hope to Get Home'In the last few days, Israel has fired missiles at Mashhad, which is the furthest the Israelis have gone in terms of their war against Iran. It is the second most pious city of Iran and the Shias. The city is important from the point of integrating it with the North-South Corridor. With the help of India, a railway line was to be laid to Zahedan. Iranian expert, Vali Kaleji, who spoke at the Russia-based Valdai Club a couple of years ago, said:“Iran is dissatisfied with India's performance in fulfilling its obligations in the development of Chabahar port and also the Chabahar-Zahedan railway route and therefore, Iran is interested in the investment of Russian and Chinese companies in the development of both ports of Shahid Beheshti and Shahid Kalantari in the Chabahar Free Trade–Industrial Zone (CFZ).”Vali KalejiThe Chabahar corridor and investment had pro-Russia tilt and repeatedly, sources claim, Moscow came to India’s rescue to tide over its financial troubles when it came to fulfilling its commitment at Chabahar and the railway line.The latest crisis in West Asia is likely to give a boost to US backed India Middle East Europe Economic corridor (IMEEC), which was conceived when India hosted the G-20 summit in 2023.The IMEEC as an idea was languishing for a while but has suddenly got a new life. During his recent visit to Cyprus, Prime Minister Modi spoke at length about the potential that resides in the IMEEC and how it will connect Asia, Europe, and the US. Greece, Cyprus, and Israel will be beneficiaries of this corridor, which will also bridge distance between Gulf, Israel, and the island states of European Union. Its an ambitious project that will change the profile of participating countries. Many experts believe that in this prevailing scheme of things, Iran does not fit in it. India, is also a misfit when it has close ties with North South corridor and Chabahar.There is a belief that was given legitimacy by former US President Joe Biden that IMEEC was responsible for the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. This theory may be a work of fiction, but the truth is that the IMEEC came to a standstill after the Hamas attack. If this project is back in the realm of active speculation and is being discussed again, it has to do so with how some of the key players are looking at the Israel-Iran war, to whom the loss of human life seems to not matter.(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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India’s Iran Dilemma: Chabahar Port in Crosshairs of a West Asian Realignment

Some countries have raised questions on why India chose to invest in Chabahar Port, located in Iran’s sea of Oman.

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Topics: Israel Iran Shanghai Cooperation Organisation