In a first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 23 years, following an invitation from Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides, Narendra Modi embarked to the island nation on Sunday, 15 June. Till now, only two Prime Ministers—Rajiv Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee—had visited Cyprus.
The visit is significant for its timing, context, and subtext, and a logical outcome of a process that has been in the making for awhile. The visit is the first official bilateral visit by the prime minister after Operation Sindoor, where Turkey—Cyprus' archrival—openly supported Pakistan, both diplomatically and militarily.
India and Cyprus have always had cordial relations, anchored in their anti-colonial struggles, and then in the Non-Aligned Movement. Political engagement between the two sides as well as trade has flourished. The Indian military has participated in the UN peacekeeping operations in Cyprus on numerous occasions, and Cyprus has supported India's inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Between April 2000 and September 2015, Cyprus invested a cumulative total of $8.328 billion, making it the eighth largest FDI investor in India. Most of the investments are in the construction and real estate industries.
In his departure statement, Prime Minister Modi underlined that "Cyprus is a close friend and an important partner in the Mediterranean region and the EU [European Union]."
"The visit provides an opportunity to build upon the historical bonds and expand our ties in the areas of trade, investment, security, technology and promote people-to-people exchanges."Narendra Modi
Decoding the Mediterranean
The process of heightened engagement of the Mediterranean region—which includes both Cyprus and Greece—however, had begun in 2019, in major part as a response to Turkey's meddling in South Asian Affairs and belligerence in the eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey has strained relations with both Cyprus and Greece. In a move that finds parallel with Pakistan’s invasion of Kashmir in 1947, Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974. It has since insisted on the country’s partition to carve out a separate Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Cyprus, as well as the EU, rejects this, making Turkey the only country to recognise the TRNC.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, too, Turkey has sharply escalated tensions with Greece, and both share a disputed maritime boundary.
Cyprus as India's Anchor
In 2019, Modi met both his Cypriot and Greek counterparts on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. It came at a time that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raked up Kashmir following India’s rescinding of the state’s special status and its bifurcation.
Turkey was soon hosting Kashmiri dissidents and allowing anti-India activities on its soil. Since then, there have been regular high-profile visits between the two countries.
Nicos Nouris, the Interior Minister of Cyprus, visited India to attend the Ministerial Conference on Counter Terrorism in November 2022. His visit was followed up by a visit by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Nicosia.
Jaishankar's visit had resulted in agreements in three major areas:
Defence
Migration
The International Solar Alliance
In Nicosia, Jaishankar said that the Mediterranean region was becoming increasingly important to India—and the Mediterranean region would see more of India in future, and the relationship with Cyprus will be an anchor in India’s endeavours. In the joint press conference, Jaishankar said, “India reiterates its commitment to a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation based on UN resolutions as the solution to the Cyprus issue.”
Cyprus, too, has always supported the Indian position on Kashmir in the international arena, and on counter-terrorism.
Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan Nexus
Meanwhile, Turkey also paved the way for closer Pakistan and Azerbaijan relations, with the South Caucasian country also taking a pro-Pakistan stance regarding Kashmir.
A watershed moment in trilateral relations between Turkey, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan was the 2020 war that Azerbaijan fought with archrival Armenia over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan won that war because of Turkish and Pakistani military and political support. This has imbued fresh optimism in both Pakistan and Turkey vis-a-vis Kashmir and Northern Cyprus in which they see a parallel.
Operation Sindoor laid bare this intention while giving an an indication of the lengths to which Turkey is willing to cooperate with Pakistan against India.
This alliance has helped galvanise the India-Greece-Cyprus cooperation to counter Turkey in its region in the Eastern Mediterranean even as it expands its footprint in South Asia. In this regard, the recent Lachin summit meeting between Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, and Erdogan has escaped many here.
The summit was significant not only as it came on the heels of Operation Sindoor but for the choice of place. Lachin is located in Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan was able to reclaim in 2020.
A second trilateral summit meeting between the three at Lachin, replete with iterations of their shared history, culture, and values, rejoicing in each others successes and being there for each other during difficult times, is a loaded message which is difficult for India not to notice.
Beyond Countering Turkey-Pakistan Nexus
India's Cyprus outreach, however, is not—and should not be—aimed at countering the Turkey-Pakistan nexus alone.
Since the past few months, the geopolitical landscape of West Asia is undergoing a profound shift. We are seeing a resurgence of Sunni Islamism. Though dictatorial, the secular regime in Syria, which was a bulwark against Islamism, has been felled. Instead, we have a former ISIS member in control of politics in Syria who, in turn, is majorly backed by Turkey and Qatar. The current Iran-Israel war will further weaken Iran, and the Shiite arc, already weakening, will further recede.
Against this backdrop of shifting politics and geopolitical realignments, Cyprus offers an important partnership in security, trade, and in securing trade routes to Europe. Both India and Cyprus have common concerns regarding border conflicts, terrorism, and maritime threats.
Despite being a small island country, Cyprus' strategic location makes it a bridge between West Asia and Europe. This allowed it to play an important role in helping India evacuate its citizens in 2006 when war broke out between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel.
Its geostrategic location is even more significant now as India seeks safer, shorter, and more cost-effective trade routes to Europe. In this connection, Cyprus, as well as Greece, are important nodes in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC).
Even if the IMEEC takes time to launch, Greece can still be accessed via the Black Sea ports through the western route of the International North-South Transport Corridor through Iran, Armenia, and Georgia.
Thus, Cyprus offers India a gateway to Europe, even as India negotiates a free trade agreement with the EU. Modi is being accompanied by a big trade delegation—and major trade as well as defence agreements are expected from the visit. This becomes more pertinent as Cyprus is set to assume the rotating EU presidency next year, which will be helpful for India to engage better with the EU in security, counter-terrorism, and trade.
With India similarly fast-tracking its strategic engagement with Greece, Modi's Cyprus visit is actualising Jaishankar's promise that the Mediterranean will see more of India.
(The author is an award-winning journalist specialising on Eurasian affairs. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)