Days after India attempted 'escalation domination' against Pakistan by launching air strikes at nine out of 26 alleged identified terrorist bases across the Line of Control on 7 May, the news of a ceasefire left many in the nation stunned. The bizarre announcement was first made by Donald Trump on 10 May—with the US President claiming credit for an end to hostilities between the two nuclear nations.
Nuclear deterrence aside, there are conflicting stories of why India embarrassingly fell in line with the US diktat when Pakistan was joyously accepting the US' mediation. Was it the fear of the nuclear war? Did India suss out the edge that the Chinese technology was providing to Pakistan's army in this face-off?
Were the hypersonic missiles Pakistan claims to have used against India a game-changer?
Pakistan's High-Tech Weaponry
Late on Friday, in the intervening night between 9-10 May, reports of a Pakistani missile being intercepted over Haryana started coming in. Local district administration of Sirsa later confirmed to the media that the remnants of missile-like objects were found at two places in the fields of Sirsa, near the Air Force station, in Haryana. The missile was intercepted by India's air defence systems which include the Russian-origin S-400 Triumf air defence system.
The Indian Air Force chief AK Bharti also confirmed that the the Indian air defence systems had successfully brought down Chinese PL-15 and long-range rockets being used by Pakistan.
The combined missile and drone attack by Pakistan on 9-10 May came after India struck several key military targets in Pakistan.
Many government and defence source-based reports in Indian media claimed that Pakistan fired its Fatah-II missile toward a strategic Indian location, which was reportedly intercepted successfully.
There is indeed murmur within diplomatic circles which the writer can confirm that a missile aimed at Delhi may have been launched. Was it the same the one intercepted at Sirsa?
There is no official confirmation, even though India did fact-check Pakistan's claims of hitting the military base at Adampur, Punjab. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself visited the base.
Before the ceasefire, Pakistan claimed it had targeted six locations in India with missiles. Pakistan's military also said medium-range Fatah missiles were used to target an Indian missile storage facility and air bases in Pathankot and Udhampur. No damage to these places has been recorded.
On 11 May, after the ceasefire was announced, Pakistan's armed forces announced in a press conference that it has used "precision-guided long-range Fatah I and II" of Pakistani origin.
While this remains unconfirmed, diplomatic sources reveal that the use of high-tech weaponry by Pakistan caught many in India off guard, be it of Chinese, Turkish, or indigenous origins (like the Fatah).
Mixed Messages
Coincidentally, the day the announcement came, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, to the chagrin of Hindutva trolls, had said that India would be keen on de-escalation. But the same day, PM Modi held a meeting with some senior secretaries of the Centre in which he conveyed no suggestion of India taking its leg off the pedal.
In fact, insiders privy to events of the meeting state that exhortations were made to the participants to do more in this fight against Pakistan, including finding ways to exploit the flowing water of the Indus river to India's benefit, an idea that some considered to be rather strange.
A few hours later, when it became known to them that India had agreed to a ceasefire, many of them were flummoxed. "Could we not have continued Operation Sindoor for a few more days?” some cautiously remarked.
This was indeed the general reaction of the country’s chattering, war-mongering classes: that India should have an extended military operations to meet strategic objectives after they had crossed the border.
These questions remained unanswered even after the PM gave a "stirring" speech on Monday, 12 May, his first since Operation Sindoor.
Though the PM said India will not submit to nuclear blackmail, the top brass seems to have realised, much to its surprised discomfort, that the Pakistani army was better prepared than it had been in 2019, post the Pulwama operation. Despite Operation Sindoor being well-planned, India cannot claim to have attained the intended escalation domination with Pakistan, which struck back with zealous, if not equal, force.
Sources claim that the top brass had expected Rawalpindi to blink after Operation Sindoor.
The strike on the nine targets was meant to be retaliatory and intended to display India's military strength and use of high-tech weaponry. However, Pakistan surprised all by unleashing its new range of Chinese weapons on the Indian Armed Forces.
Chinese Jets to the Rescue
Long before the shooting game began, there were expectations that for the first time, European technology represented by France’s fifth generation, Rafale, will take on the Chinese-made J-10 and JF-17.
An article published in the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post titled, 'Why a Pakistan India War Would be Chinese vs Western Arms Proving Ground', made it amply clear that the shoot-out will have profound implications for the global arms industry. The newspaper is owned by Alibaba, and often seen as vocalising China's political narratives abroad.
For the global arms industry, the fight was tantalisingly poised. Chinese and Pakistani J-10C were equipped with PL-15 air to air missiles with a reported 200 km range. This was to take on a settled adversary in Rafale, which is equipped with meteor missiles.
The Chinese J-10C is much cheaper than its French rival. After many denials, what is clear is that the Chinese equipment acquitted itself well.
The Indian defence ministry has trenchantly denied Islamabad's claims of downing five Indian aircrafts, which the latter hasn't been able to substantiate with any evidence whatsoever. There remains, nevertheless, persistent chatter about at least one Rafale being hit by Chinese missiles, even though the fighter jet did not cross the border, as maintained by India.
These claims are unverified, but if true, the revelation would be a “big” one, defence observers claim. In such a case, armed confrontation would cease to be for strategic domination, and instead have more to do with defending one’s own.
India has not confirmed the downing of any Rafale, and said that all Indian pilots are safe home. Air Marshal AK Bharti of the Indian Air Force responded to a question on Rafale with a neutral response.
"We are in a combat scenario and losses are a part of combat. The question you must ask is, 'Have we we achieved our objective of decimating the terrorist camps?' The answer is a thumping yes. As for details the numbers, at this time, I would not like to comment on that as we are still in combat, and it will be advantage to adversary. And we don't want to give them any advantage at this stage. We have achieved our objective. And all our pilots are back home," he said at a press conference.
If a Rafale was indeed hit, the biggest question for the defence ministry now would be about what it will do with its highly priced Rafale. Twenty six more of the aircraft were ordered a week before the Pahalgam war. Will India scrap the order and go for a new, US-based system?
'Mediation' Pangs
Military experts claim that Pakistan has managed to enhance its image as a military power in South Asia as well re-established nuclear power as a deterrent. Did Indian security forces back off as the miliary escalation was heading towards a possible nuclear showdown? If Trump has to be believed, then it seems so.
Though Trump is taking credit for preventing a nuclear war in which "millions" could have died, Pakistan would be happy that the hyphenation between India-Pakistan, which New Delhi abhors, has returned.
What would worry India more is that US mediation may drive the talks to a neutral capital, thus denying New Delhi from leveraging the Simla Agreement that allowed the two countries to bilaterally resolve issues.
The Indian Armed Forces seem the most uncomfortable with the narratives emanating out of this US "brokered" agreement and have claimed that it’s not Washington that resolved matters between the two countries.
The Opposition parties have demanded that India clarify whether Trump manipulated New Delhi to accept his mediation through a trade deal.
There are a number of worrying issues that need to be explained in the coming days, including what kind of armament India should have and whether it should continue to buy expensive Western technology when cheaper and more effective systems are available. What about indigenisation and improving our own capability?
On another note, what is crucially visible, as some China hawks assert, is how far India has drifted away from the Russia-led BRICS. Though no one made much noise about it, New Delhi was absent from Moscow’s 9 May 'Liberation Day' celebrations. One observer, speaking with The Quint, said, "The truth is that India is too far gone into the US camp for Russia's comfort."
(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)