Pakistan Chief of Army Staff Gen Asim Munir has now been promoted to the rank of Field Marshal. This makes him only the second person to hold this position in the history of Pakistan. The last time this happened was 66 years ago - when Ayub Khan became Field Marshall in 1959, a few months after he retired as COAS. He was also the President of Pakistan at that time.
During the recent standoff between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack, a number of senior Indian journalists claimed that Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir has been sacked and even arrested. However, the conflict has actually strengthened Gen Munir's standing within Pakistan, as is evident from his promotion.
This won't seem like a surprise if one examines the sequence of events that took place during the conflict between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack.
What Asim Munir's Promotion Means
The position of Field Marshal is an honorary one and doesn't come with any powers more than what Munir enjoys as COAS. However, the symbolism is important.
For Munir, it is a way of establishing his place in Pakistan's history. Ayub Khan becoming Field Marshall in 1959 wasn't that big a deal as he was the first non-British to be Pakistan's COAS. Moreover, the decision was taken by his own Cabinet back then.
Munir, on the other hand, has been promoted by a civilian government led by Shehbaz Sharif.
This is a way by both Munir and the Sharif government to claim the ceasefire with India as a "win".
Ever since the ceasefire took place, it is being spun as a win in Pakistan bt emphasising on two aspects. .
First, US intervening between India and Pakistan and President Donald Trump's assertion that he will negotiate a long term peace between the two sides.
Second, Pakistan's claims of having inflicted damage on Indian fighter jets, a claim that India has denied.
By promoting Munir, the Munir-Sharif duo is also trying to capitalise on the support they received from the Pakistan public during the way and take on their main domestic challenge - politically countering Imran Khan and his PTI.
However, Munir's promotion is only a culmination of a number of events that took place in the past few weeks, which showed how he has been strengthening his power in Pakistan.
New National Security Advisor
On 30 April, Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt. Gen. Asim Malik was appointed as Pakistan's National Security Adviser, a position that had been vacant since 2022. It is the first time that the head of ISI is also holding the NSA position.
Malik is seen as a Munir loyalist. He had played a key role in Munir's battle against Imran Khan. He led the inquiry into the 9 May 2023 violence that took place following Khan's arrest. He is also reported to have initiated court-martial proceedings against former Faiz Hameed, who was the ISI chief under Imran Khan.
Malik's appointment as NSA enabled him to play a key role in the negotiations that eventually led to the cessation of hostilities. This included a conversation with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval as well as with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Through Malik, Munir is said to have kept even tighter control over Pakistan's response to the crisis.
Saudi Negotiations Behind the Scenes
During the Indo-Pak stand-off, one of the first countries to urge a de-escalation was Saudi Arabia, who even dispatched its foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud to India and Pakistan. Among top Pakistan officials, the minister is also said to have spoken to former PM Nawaz Sharif, with whom the Saudi establishment has very close relations.
It must be remembered that Sharif spent many years in exile in Saudi Arabia after General Pervez Musharraf deposed him in a coup in 1999. Even before becoming PM, his family's Ittefaq Group, has invested a great deal in Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi establishment believed that Sharif would still be able to influence a de-escalation through his brother PM Shehbaz Sharif. However, apparently General Munir didn't agree to it at that juncture.
This was a clear message that Munir and not the Shehbaz Sharif government was calling the shots on this matter.
The Munir-Sharif Equation
PML-N supporters as well as Munir's sympathisers say that there was a "healthy division of responsibilities" between the civilian and military wings of the government during the conflict.
Munir loyalists have been saying that Pakistan would have been able to give a more appropriate response after the 2019 Balakot strike had it not been for "Imran Khan's desire to be seen as a statesman" and his "intervention in the job of the military".
Many sympathisers of Munir began circulating Khan's speech from 2019 in which he says he cannot go against international law and attack India.
Shehbaz Sharif, in contrast, had no such illusions of statesmanship and proved to be more than willing to play second fiddle to the military while remaining the face of the government for the international community.
For instance, PM Sharif put two posts in consecutive days, thanking President Donald Trump for his intervention. And many of his last few posts have been expressing gratitude to countries which supported Pakistan in the conflict.
In retrospect now, reports are appearing in Pakistani media and social media handles that Nawaz Sharif was monitoring every step that the government was taking. The speculation is that these are mostly coming from the PML-N leadership, particularly Nawaz Sharif, who wants to resist any change in the civil-military balance of power in favour of the latter.
Ties With China
The recent conflict between India and Pakistan has restored Islamabad's ties with Beijing. Relations between Pakistan and China had come under strain in the past year or so due to Chinese concerns over the security of its workers involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and the Sharif government reluctance in allowing Chinese military presence in Gwadar.
According to reports, the Sharif government asked China to arm it with second-strike nuclear capability in return.
There is a larger context to this. The Imran Khan government was seen as much more pro-China and openly flaunted its efforts to distance itself from the United States. The Sharif-Munir duo, on the other hand, were trying for better ties with the US as well and therefore didn't want to give a carte blanche to China.
Now after the current conflict with India, there has been a deepening of Pakistan's friendship with China. The recent standoff proved useful for China in another way - it enabled the testing of its defence equipment in a battle situation, which China hadn't been able to do so far. China accounts for about 80 percent of Pakistan's defence imports.
The Pakistani military and civil leadership are said to have been in close touch with China through the entire conflict following the Pahalgam terror attack.
Removal of Ban on X
X (formerly Twitter) had been banned in Pakistan in 2024. This was seen as the Sharif-Munir duo's way of stifling pro-Imran Khan voices. The social media space in Pakistan has been heavily dominated by Imran Khan supporters. X had become an important means for them to mobilise support as well as criticise the government and the army. However, Pakistanis did continue to use X and bypass the ban using VPN.
However, the Pakistan government revoked the ban soon after India launched strikes on multiple targets within Pakistan on 7 May. The idea was to amplify the Pakistani narrative online. This worked to the government's advantage. Many pro-Imran Khan groups were now actively trying to push the Pakistani establishment's talking points.
The space which had become the biggest headache for Munir, was now working in his support.
After the ceasefire, while PTI supporters online have gone back to their core issue of demanding Imran Khan's release, anti-PTI commentators are also pushing back more intensely than before calling it a "one-issue party" and a "personality cult".
Concerns and What Lies Ahead
The ceasefire may have given a breather to Pakistan but through Operation Sindoor, India displayed both its willingness and capability to target locations across Pakistan. It is no longer restricted to just the areas near the Line of Control. Even the strike in Balakot didn't have that kind of psychological impact as it was in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and didn't affect Punjab province or any major city.
This time the scale and geographical expanse of India's attacks was much larger.
To add to this, there was the sighting of drones, blackouts across many cities and disruption of air traffic.
Despite Pakistan's claims of a tactical victory, the fears that "India can attack anytime anywhere" have increased considerably.
Then there is the issue of the Indus Water Treaty, which has caused fears of a long-term choking of Pakistan's riparian water supply.
Now with Munir becoming Field Marshal, he and Sharif are likely to turn their focus towards their two main domestic challenges - economic stagnation and the lack of political legitimacy.
(This piece was first published on 14 May. It has been updated on 20 May following Gen Asim Munir's promotion as Field Marshal)