(Editor's note: Nitish Kumar has now resigned as chief minister of Bihar.)
The high-stakes political drama unfolding in Bihar once again has all the makings of an edge-of-the-seat potboiler.
As Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar is all set to dump the ruling Bihar Mahagathbandhan (including Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD [Rashtriya Janata Dal]) and the Congress, and return to the fold of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), one stalwart from Nitish’s camp has been conspicuously missing from the action. He is none other than Nitish's close associate and Lok Sabha MP Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh.
While on the face of it, Singh's absence hints he is out of favor, the political implications behind this development have a deeper complexity. The abrupt ouster of Lalan Singh as the JD(U) president by Nitish Kumar laid bare the cracks within the once seemingly invincible Bihar Mahagathbandhan. What was projected as a formidable secular alliance now appears to be coming apart at the seams due to its internal contradictions.
Lalan's Ouster Confirms the Strains in the JD(U)-RJD Relationship
By expelling Lalan from a key party position, Nitish has ruthlessly sidelined a parallel emerging power center that could have challenged his authoritarian grip on the JD(U). Lalan's burgeoning proximity to RJD chief Lalu Prasad had set off alarm bells in Nitish’s court. He ostensibly saw Lalan as Lalu’s Trojan Horse to enable Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav's eventual takeover as CM in 2025.
The Bihar CM wants undisputed command over the JD(U) where no one can pose an internal challenge to his authority, as has been the case historically. Nitish Kumar, along with George Fernandes and Sharad Yadav established the JD(U) in 2003. But both Fernandes and Yadav were eventually sidelined from the party due to standing up to Nitish.
Interestingly, Lalan Singh himself was the chief architect who engineered Nitish Kumar's dramatic exit from NDA and realignment with the RJD in 2022. He was instrumental in convincing Nitish to dump the BJP and join hands once again with arch-rival Lalu Prasad to form the Mahagathbandhan government.
It was Lalan who had negotiated the power-sharing formula and ensured that the JD(U) and the RJD buried their bitter rivalry to come together in a bid to oust BJP from power. His efforts were crucial in enabling Nitish's successful volte-face. However, this bonhomie proved short-lived as cracks emerged within months over the issue of power-sharing and the CM's post. Lalan's ouster confirmed the strains have now overwhelmed the JD(U)-RJD partnership.
However, Nitish, having successfully overcome past threats to his authority, saw through this artifice. He struck preemptively by sacking Lalan before greater harm was inflicted. But this has now ruptured the JD(U)-RJD alliance, with both attempting to trip the other while still clinging to power. Lalan's unceremonious ouster signals that the simmering power struggle between the allies has now erupted into open warfare and Nitish is not open to the idea of handing over Bihar, when the challenge in the national politics looms large.
BJP is Waiting to Embrace Nitish Back Into the NDA
The RJD desires Tejashwi as their chief ministerial candidate for 2025, while Nitish aims to safeguard his legacy and retire on his own terms. Additionally, given the divisions within the INDIA bloc, Nitish is reluctant to risk his state's authority for national ambitions.
Presently, Nitish has two primary goals: to attain a significant national role as a key player within the unified opposition and to establish himself as the central figure around which anti-BJP factions could unite. However, Nitish has struggled to solidify this position despite initial projections.
Sensing a split in the Opposition's ranks, the BJP is waiting to embrace Nitish back into the NDA if he walks out of the Mahagathbandhan disgruntled. Nitish himself has notably softened his anti-BJP rhetoric of late, keeping all his political options firmly on the table.
In a telling move, the Centre recently conferred Bharat Ratna posthumously on socialist icon Karpoori Thakur, former Bihar CM and mentor of Nitish Kumar. Political analysts saw this as Modi extending an olive branch to Nitish to rebuild bridges with BJP.
In fact, PM Modi personally called up Karpoori's son Ramnath Thakur, a JD(U) Rajya Sabha MP, to inform him about the decision. Nitish thanked the PM for bestowing the honor on his political guru. This bonhomie indicates Nitish is not averse to realigning with the BJP again if the situation demands. The Lalan saga could well be the precursor to such an eventuality of the JD(U) jumping ship once more.
But such frequent acts of ideological gymnastics could irrevocably damage Nitish’s credibility as an opportunistic ally guided solely by the lure of power. He has to tread cautiously to avoid squandering his political capital entirely in this quest to retain relevance.
No Easy Choices Available for Nitish
Herein lies Nitish’s policy paralysis - remaining allied with the RJD risks being overwhelmed by the Lalu-Tejashwi combine over time. But divorcing the RJD would severely diminish his clout outside Bihar, given BJP’s complete dominance nationally. This is a complex multi-level game of political chess that shall require all of Nitish’s vaunted strategic thinking.
In the near term, Nitish seems to have succeeded in consolidating his power by expunging Lalan from the party apparatus. But Lalan still wields influence and enjoys Lalu’s tacit support. He could emerge as a force if political equations in Bihar undergo realignment in the future.
The RJD will also attempt to cut Nitish to size if he tries any opportunistic maneuvers for personal enrichment. Things could get uglier as the two rivals try to checkmate each other ahead of upcoming polls. Ultimately, Nitish faces policy paralysis with no easy choices available.
While his political experience could still enable him to stick to the landing, the future remains speculative. The high-stakes battle for supremacy between Nitish Kumar and the resurgent Lalu-Tejashwi duo has certainly commenced.
As this potboiler gathers steam, more twists and turns likely await.
(Ashraf Nehal is a foreign policy analyst and a columnist who mainly tracks South Asia. He can be reached on Twitter at @ashrafnehal19 and on Instagram at ___ashraf___19. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for his reported views.)
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