(Editor's note: This article was originally published on 27 January. Nitish Kumar has now resigned as chief minister of Bihar.)
There is a lot of buzz around Bihar Chief Minister (CM) Nitish Kumar’s re-entry into the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) led by the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). Nitish was already peeved at being ignored for the post of Convenor of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc.
The delay in seat-sharing talks, and a reported attempt by the Lalu Yadav family to break the Janata Dal (United) and install the RJD's (Rashtriya Janata Dal) Tejashwi Yadav as the CM seem to be the trigger points for his somersault.
Palturam Nitish Kumar’s name will be scripted in history as the leader who swung like a pendulum between the NDA and the opposition alliance with ease, simultaneously maintaining his hold on the CM chair, like a beautiful girl who has two suitors competing with each other for her hand.
This will be his second homecoming to the NDA after having parted ways in 2013 (just before the 2014 Lok Sabha election) and 2022 (after winning state elections in 2020). This will be his third divorce with a friend turned foe:
The 1994 split to form the Samata Party
Ditching the MGB (Mahagathbandhan) government in 2017 to join the NDA
And the much anticipated 2024 return to the NDA just before the 2024 election
Why is Nitish Unhappy With the Status Quo?
Nitish is unhappy with the Congress party for the tardy progress on everything related to the INDIA bloc, from seat-sharing to strategy to campaign formulation to the drafting of a common minimum program. Nitish credits himself for bringing different opposition parties together in June-July last year on a common platform to take on the BJP.
He publicly blamed the Congress party for delaying talks by three months from September to December as it was busy with the state elections in five states.
Late last year, there were media reports of Lallan Singh visiting Lalu Yadav’s family with 12 MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly) of the JD(U) in a rumoured coup attempt which led to the resignation of the former as President of the party and the reinstallation of Nitish to the top post. This seems to have soured his relationship with Lalu, who may have wanted to install Tejashwi as the CM behind his back.
In the 13 January meeting of the INDIA bloc, despite most parties including the RJD backing Nitish as Convenor, Rahul Gandhi reportedly intervened citing the absence of Mamata and her apprehensions about the Bihar CM being appointed to the post.
Why Would Nitish Want to Go Back to the NDA?
He has three goals in life:
To become PM one day
To ensure that the JD(U) retains a maximum of the Lok Sabha seats (16) won by the party in the 2019 election
To ensure he remains the Chief Minister of Bihar as long as he chooses to
To realise the first goal, he needed, desperately, to become the Convenor of the INDIA bloc. After the Congress party’s 3-0 loss in Vidhan Sabha elections in the Hindi heartland, doubts were cast about the grand old party’s ability to defeat the BJP in 190 odd one-to-one contests. Without the Congress doing well in these seats, largely without support from its allies, the INDIA bloc’s chances to win are minimal in 2024.
The grand inauguration of Ram Mandir and the positive environment created in favour of the BJP throughout the country, making voters emotionally charged, may have been the last nail determining Nitish's decision for a gharwapsi. With many experts and polls suggesting a BJP repeat of 2019, Nitish seems to have taken this decision in order to maintain his stature.
The JD(U) won 16 of the 17 seats allocated to it in 2019 in alliance with the BJP, a jump of 14 seats compared to 2014 when it contested alone. The Ram Mandir environment may have led Nitish to believe that the JD(U) could lose most of these seats. Further seat-sharing negotiations hit a roadblock as the RJD was runner-up in eight of these seats and was claiming them for candidature.
To retain most of his 2019 tally, an alliance with the BJP was necessary. It is a more natural alliance according to some leaders on both sides, and there is a history of strong vote transfers with minimal leakages between the two parties.
Due to his unique position, with neither the BJP nor the RJD able to form a government without Nitish, he would remain as CM under both coalitions. However, in the MGB, he has a strong successor in Tejashwi who will be constantly knocking on his back, while in the NDA, there is no leader to match his charisma. Here, he could even remain the CM face for the 2025 polls and occupy the top post if the NDA wins that election.
And Why Would the NDA Take Him?
The BJP local leadership has been at odds with Nitish after his second breakup in 2022. The top leadership had taken vows to never take him back into the NDA fold.
However, the BJP has created an official Mission 50 per cent vote share and an unofficial Mission 400+ seats for 2024.
To achieve this, it needs allies, and the JD(U) can add 10-15 seats to the NDA kitty and thus strengthen its bid. PM Modi is a man of records and is eyeing the 404 seat record won by Rajiv Gandhi in the 1984 Lok Sabha election in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s assassination.
What Happens to the INDIA Bloc Now?
The UPA (United Progressive Alliance) led by the Congress party was rebranded as INDIA.
With both the Aam Aadmi Party and the Trinamool Congress not agreeing to seat sharing in Punjab and West Bengal respectively, and similar troubles between the Samajwadi Party andthe Congress in Uttar Pradesh with the grand old party demanding 20 seats, the Shiv Sena Uddhav faction demanding 23 seats despite the split caused by Ekanth Shinde, and the rumored exit of the JD(U), the INDIA bloc seems to be disintegrating.
(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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