Lalan Singh Quits as JD(U) President. What is Nitish Kumar's Endgame?

Lalan Singh, instead of enhancing Nitish's politics of possibilities, appeared to be acting like a barrier.

Niccolo Machiavelli, the noted political philosopher, wrote in The Prince, "It is better to be feared than to be loved if one cannot be both."

In the context of Bihar politics, the recent resignation of Lalan Singh as president of the Janata Dal (United) is a prime example of Nitish Kumar’s politics of possibilities. This proves, yet again, that the Bihar chief minister (CM) is the sole leader of the JD(U) and no one can challenge his authority within the party.

However, this event has implications outside of Bihar as well, that is, for the INDIA bloc (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).

Nothing Nitish Hasn't Done Before

Nitish has a history of using pressure tactics to garner his own political interests and hold key positions within his party and the government.

He, George Fernandes, and Sharad Yadav established the JD(U) in 2003. It is quite interesting that the Nitish sidelined both of them from the party. Fernandes opposed making Nitish the CM face of the JD(U)-BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) alliance in the 2005 assembly election.

Then, in the 2009 general election, Nitish refused to give him a Lok Sabha ticket, which was the end of Fernandes in the JD(U). As a result of it, Fernandes fought as an independent candidate from Muzaffarpur Lok Sabha seat and lost the election.

In 2014, Jitan Ram Manjhi was removed as the CM of Bihar because he started acting independently of Nitish and took several decisions without consulting him. The same pattern was repeated with veteran socialist leader Sharad Yadav in 2017. He opposed two moves by Nitish.

First, Sharad Yadav was not happy with Nitish quitting the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in 2014. Second, Sharad was against Nitish joining hands with the BJP in 2017. Later Sharad Yadav resigned from the JD(U). The recent case is with RCP Singh. He was removed from the party and Nitish accused him of breaking the party with the aid of the BJP. These actions against important leaders of the JD(U) show that no one is equal to Nitish within the party. Any barrier to his politics of possibilities faces complete repression.  

Why Lalan Singh Had to Go

Nitish wants two things as of now. First, he desires a key position within the INDIA bloc. After the first meeting of opposition leaders in Patna on 23 June, Nitish has not been able to consolidate a central position in the alliance. At one stage, he was the key to mobilising and organising all opposition leaders.

The Congress party and other political leaders are using the caste census as one of the prominent issues to mobilise voters. Nitish has successfully conducted one in Bihar after 1931, extended the reservation, and provided more than three lakh government jobs. He thinks that he could be a poster boy for the nationwide caste census demand of the INDIA bloc.

Second, the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) wants Tejashwi Yadav to be the CM face in 2025. But Nitish wants to keep his politics relevant for 2025 if the alliance fails in the 2024 general election. 

Lalan Singh, as the party chief, had the responsibility to fulfill these two interests. However, his actions took different directions. 

First, Singh was allegedly in close proximity with Lalu Yadav regadring Tejashwi's CM prospects. Also, Nitish had internal conflicts with a few of his close associate ministers like Ashok Chowdhury, JD(U) Bihar President Umesh Kushwaha, and Vijay Chowdhury. Nitish suspected that he was losing a grip over his power. It was closing the gate for him with respect to 2025.

Second, as a member of the coordination committee of the INDIA alliance, it seems that Lalan Singh was not interested in conveying Nitish's ambition regarding the latter's desire for a central role.

Instead of enhancing Nitish's politics of possibilities, he acted like a barrier, resulting in his removal as party chief. However, this play by Nitish has damaged the party.

Today, the JD(U) does not have any substantial base or organisation. And as Nitish grows older, there is a looming threat that his party’s existence will not stand the test of time. In all probabilities, if Nitish fails to gain anything in 2024, he might not be able to use his pressure tactics to negotiate with the BJP or the RJD in the future. The BJP is no longer the party it used to be.

However, as of now, it seems that Nitish's tactics are working. There is again a political buzz in the power corridor that Nitish can be made the convenor of the INDIA alliance.  

Why Do Pressure Tactics Work for Nitish Kumar? 

Nitish, despite his lack of party organisation, social base, and even charismatic personality, is able to maintain his centrality in Indian politics. What makes this possible?

First, his image is clean and clear. Despite ruling Bihar for 20 years, there has been no corruption case against him, in public at least. Even a decade back, when Nitish was minister in several central government ministries, he was one of the most accountable faces. He resigned from the railway ministry after a tragic accident. On other hand, most other members of the INDIA bloc are facing corruption charges.

Second, Nitish has crafted his image based on development and governance. When he gained power in Bihar in 2005, the state had failed institutions, a high crime rate, and a complete absence of state machinery leaving the people in deprived conditions. During his tenure, Bihar developed constantly with the highest growth rate in India. 

Third, he also does not belong to any of the political dynasties of India like Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, M K Stalin, Jayant Chaudhary, Omar Abdullah, Udhhav Thakeray, and Mehbooba Mufti among others. Also, there is no charge against him that he prioritises the benefits of his family members. It makes his reputation and career intact.

Fourth, Nitish, even after a longer period of alliance with the BJP has a very secular image. He projects an independent stance on UCC, Triple Talaq, Ayodhya Case etc. It helps Nitish in getting a significant chunk of Muslim votes apart from the EBCs and Mahadalits.

Fifth, on one hand, he portrays himself as the political disciple of Lohia, JP, and Karpoori Thakur. On the other hand, he also celebrates the birthday of Deen Dayal Upadhyay, and BJP leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Arun Jaitley. It keeps his options open from both sides, while his alliance partners remain in fear that he can tilt towards side any time. 

These qualities and traits have helped him to use fear and pressure as a form of tactic for his politics of possibilities.

[Kishan Kumar ([e-mail]) is a research associate at Ashoka University, Haryana. Nitish Kumar ([e-mail]) is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for Political Studies, JNU. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.]