Filmstar-turned-politician Joseph Vijay's dramatic rise in Tamil Nadu politics has upended equations for all the parties in the state. It has broken the 59-year-old duopoly of the DMK and AIADMK. It has ended the DMK-Congress alliance. The Grand Old Party is all set to be part of the state government after decades. The AIADMK has been pushed to third place and is presently on the cusp of an internal churn. It has created a strange arrangement under which smaller parties like VCK, IUML, and the Left are supporting the TVK government, but remain DMK allies.
But what about the BJP?
The answer to this is layered. The BJP and RSS see Vijay's rise as both an opportunity and a threat.
However, there is also a slight difference between the BJP and the RSS in how they view Vijay. There is also a degree of introspection on the BJP's tactical choices in Tamil Nadu.
We address all these aspects in this piece.
'BJP Could Have Been the Change'
"The BJP had a vote share of 11 percent in the Lok Sabha elections. It was the no. 3 party after DMK and AIADMK. NDA vote share was 18 percent. So many seats we came second. If we had fought (the Assembly elections) independently under Annamalai, we could been the alternative to the two traditional parties," a BJP functionary from Madurai district told The Quint.
The functionary added, "Many young voters are not ideological. They don't care about outdated politics (of DMK and AIADMK). They all voted for Vijay because they were fed up. Youngsters who joined Annamalai's Padyatra, went and voted for Vijay. We lost that vote".
According to a section of the Tamil Nadu BJP, Annamalai was "sacrificed" to appease the AIADMK and that was a "costly" mistake.
While the BJP's publicly stated position on Vijay is that it will "wait and watch" how he governs, party leaders do admit in private that the vacuum the BJP wanted to fill in Tamil Nadu politics is now gone.
The RSS View
The RSS view on Vijay differs slightly from that of the BJP and it is much more hopeful.
"Anybody is better than the DMK. The election results are a sign that you cannot abuse Sanatana (Dharma) and get away with it. That era of anti-Sanatana politics in Tamil Nadu is gone," an RSS functionary said, hinting at the statements made by Udhayanidhi Stalin on Sanatan Dharma.
The RSS' view on Tamil Nadu goes beyond the electoral prospects of the BJP. The long-term aim of the Sangh has been to break the hold of Dravidian politics on the state.
This has meant a far more accommodating approach to even the Congress. In an interview to The Print, RSS ideologue and editor of Thuglak, S Gurumurthy, said:
"Way back in 1989, Cho Ramasamy and I had told Rajiv Gandhi to fight independently in Tamil Nadu. They did that under GK Moopanar and got 20 percent of the votes. If they had continued with this, they would have been successful. But they gave up and allied with Jayalalithaa."S Gurumurthy, RSS ideologue
Gurumurthy disclosed that he had engaged with a number of leaders who tried to emerge as alternatives to the DMK and AIADMK but none of them could succeed.
In this context, Vijay's rise is being seen positively by the RSS.
"Dravidian politics is now dead. The word Dravida isn't there in Vijay's party name. He mainly came to power promising 'no corruption' and a change from these two parties. There is no ideological component," a former RSS functionary observed, speaking at a seminar in Delhi.
Gurumurthy pointed out, "Vijay visited Thiruchendur temple and Shirdi Sai Baba after the elections. He did it after polling, so it shows he believes in it and it wasn't for votes. This is a clear break from the earlier politics".
Sections in the RSS believe that Vijay may desist from "ideological attacks on Hinduism" and "unnecessary hostility with the Centre" and this should be seen as a positive development.
Another angle here is caste. Vijay isn't seen as "anti-Brahmin" and hasn't made any statements to that effect. He has also nominated Mylapore MLA P Venkataramanan, a Brahmin, as part of his Cabinet.
Vijay's films also provide a hint of his politics. They carry a strong populist message: anti-corruption, pro-poor, pro-farmers, women's empowerment. However, this is only part of the story. More than any other top star, Vijay's films contain themes related to Indian nationalism and Pakistan-backed terrorism: Beast, Thuppaki and Velayudham for instance.
The RSS is hoping for a government which is less hostile than the DMK and open to what they call "constructive engagement".
Eventually, a lot would depend on how Vijay governs.
In his interviews, Gurumurthy has criticised TVK for being "inexperienced" and "not a coherent party", but also praised Vijay for "restraint" and "avoiding unnecessary controversies during the entire back-and-forth with the Governor".
He also claimed that Vijay didn't criticise the BJP for much of the campaign, especially after the Karur stampede incident.
BJP's Calculations
However, the BJP's calculations are slightly different. There are fears that now both the government and the Opposition in the state will be controlled by "anti-BJP" forces.
"Look at Vijay's top people. Nirmal Kumar (TVK deputy general secretary) is ex-BJP, Anand (TVK general secretary N Anand) was with Rangaswamy (Puducherry CM, an NDA ally), Sengottiayan was with AIADMK all his life...basically Vijay is occupying the anti-DMK space," the BJP leader from Madurai observed.
"Now all of them will work with Congress. Then, VCK and others (IUML and Left) are remote-controlled by Stalin. So this is a government controlled by Congress and DMK. This is not a good situation for us," the leader added.
There are also fears that while Vijay may not be as ideologically committed to Dravidian politics, he may make "Congress-style secular, anti-BJP politics appealing for the Gen-Z voters" in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP's main problem is that Vijay's win has increased the Congress' leverage in Tamil Nadu and reduced its own. In the run-up to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress can align with any of the three big regional parties in Tamil Nadu: TVK, DMK and AIADMK. On the other hand, the BJP can only ally with the AIADMK due to the DMK's ideological opposition to it and the TVK's dependence on the Congress. This would make the India bloc well placed to sweep Tamil Nadu once again.
What Lies Ahead
The BJP's main requirement is to prevent a pre-poll alliance between the Congress and TVK in the Lok Sabha elections and somehow gain some leverage in the state. That is not possible based on present numbers.
However, this situation could change if the AIADMK splits and one faction supports Vijay's government. This would remove Vijay's dependence on the Congress and other anti-BJP parties like the VCK, IUML and the Left. This may give BJP some leverage and create a dilemma for the Congress on whether to go with the DMK or Vijay for 2029.
The BJP may also look for issues that can restore its relevance in the state. One such issue is the anti-conversion law. No party is likely to support such a move. But this is an issue the BJP is likely to raise in the state, especially with a Christian being CM now.
The party had made the CM's Christian identity an issue when YS Jaganmohan Reddy was at the helm in Andhra Pradesh.
In fact, it was BJP's H Raja who started the trend of calling Vijay by his full name 'Joseph Vijay'. It didn't work during the campaign but raking up this issue will, no doubt, help the BJP stand out from other parties in the state.