The Indian National Congress has a habit of shooting itself in the foot.
In state after state, we have seen wrong decisions taken by the party that have reduced it to irrelevance in those regions. In Tamil Nadu, they are already largely an irrelevant party with a less than five percent estimated vote share. Having depended upon one of the two Dravidian parties over the last few decades to get a decent share of seats in the Lok Sabha from Tamil Nadu, the Congress has now thrown in its lot with the new kid on the block, the Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) of actor Vijay, the party that made a stunning electoral debut this week.
Before the recently concluded elections, there was talk that the Congress would exit a longstanding alliance with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and tie up with the TVK and contest 75 seats in such an alliance.
However, frantic efforts by the old guard within the Congress, including party chief Mallikarjun Kharge, P Chidambaram, and Sonia Gandhi herself, ensured that the alliance with the DMK stayed intact. There was speculation that Rahul Gandhi wanted to go with the TVK but was overruled.
Why Congress’s Five Seats Suddenly Matter
Throughout the election campaign, DMK leader and former Chief Minister MK Stalin and Rahul Gandhi did not campaign together even once. Something seems to have ruptured between the “brothers” as they used to call each other.
At the hustings, the Congress could win just five out of the 28 seats it contested. Yet in a situation where the TVK failed to get a majority, these five MLAs became important to potentially help the TVK rustle up a majority.
Immediately after the results, the TVK reached out to the Congress and the latter promptly agreed to extend support to the TVK to form a government. In the letter of support, the Congress even spoke of the alliance continuing for the local body elections due this year and the Lok Sabha elections of 2029.
BJP Uneasy With a TVK–Congress Understanding
In fact, it is the haste with which Vijay sought the support of the Congress that seems to have angered the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which until then was making welcoming noises about Vijay.
The actions of the Governor in insisting on Vijay proving his majority to the Governor even before being sworn-in are now spoken about as a tactic by the BJP to exert pressure on Vijay through the Governor.
In a situation where no one else has staked a claim, the Governor is expected to invite the single largest party (the TVK) to form the Government and prove its majority on the floor of the Assembly.
In backing Vijay and drifting away from its long-standing ally the DMK, the Congress is taking a big gamble. Vijay is still largely an unknown quantity and there is no guarantee that his popularity would hold until 2029. That would depend on the performance of a Vijay-led government, which would be largely made up of novices.
Could Congress Return to the DMK Fold?
The Congress may have been emboldened to jump ship because they may have calculated that if push came to shove, they could go back to the DMK alliance as they did eight years ago after quitting the alliance a few years earlier. The DMK also needs the Congress vote share and its minority vote to stay ahead of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and so it may not be averse to taking the Congress back later, though at the moment they are bad-mouthing each other.
For the BJP, they would have preferred Vijay to take the support of their ally, the AIADMK. This would have made the TVK alliance Government more stable as they would have more than 150 MLAs on their side. But the fact that the TVK has not yet officially called for support from the AIADMK may have further angered the BJP.
The BJP, which won just one seat out of the 27 it contested, has no leverage on this matter except through the clout of its central government. There it appears to have plenty.
Tamil Nadu Heads Into Political Uncertainty
If there is a TVK Government formed and the Congress features in it, this will be the first time since 1967 that the Congress has been in power (even if only as a junior partner) in Tamil Nadu.
Having just won in Kerala, this would mean they would be in power in all the major states in the South, except Andhra Pradesh.
But will there be a government formed in Tamil Nadu anytime soon? Will the gamble of the Congress pay off? Or are we headed for an Assembly in suspended animation and Governor’s rule?
(Sumanth C Raman is a television anchor and political analyst. He tweets @sumanthraman. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)