Sonam Wangchuk-Govt Deal Puts CJP & Oppn in a Bind: What Led to it? What Next?

Activist Sonam Wangchuk on 23 July, Thursday broke his 26-day-long fast after the Modi government accepted three of his main demands. Prime Minister Narendra Modi put out a post thanking Wangchuk soon after. However, the deal doesn't include the protesting students' main demand—the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan.The three assurances the government has given to Wangchuk are: No cases against the students who protested peacefully in Jantar Mantar and those who took part in the march on 20 July. Threadbare discussion on NEET paper leaks and educational reforms in Parliament. Suitable compensation for the families of the students who died by suicide due to paper leaks. These were also the main demands made by Wangchuk in his letter to Union ministers JP Nadda and Jitendra Singh on 22 July. So, in that sense, Pradhan's resignation was already off the table at that point as well. What led to this deal? And what does this mean for the ongoing Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) protest in Jantar Mantar?To answer both these questions, we need to take a brief recap of how the entire battle stacked up in the past few weeks. When Sonam Wangchuk began his hunger strike in end-June demanding Pradhan's resignation, the government was up against four adversaries in the entire issue. Each of these wanted Pradhan to be sacked but each of them have a different long-term agenda.CJPSonam WangchukCongressNon-Congress OppositionThe student bodies backing the protest have played an important role but they are broadly aligned with the non-Congress Opposition, with some minor differences. Hence, they needn't be considered a separate entity for this discussion. The difference between the Congress and non-Congress Opposition lies in a much more collaborative relationship with the CJP.From the government's perspective, the strongest as well as the weakest link among these four entities was Sonam Wangchuk. Strongest because he brought both legitimacy and attention to the protest.Being a prominent activist with no links to any political party, Wangchuk made the protest acceptable in the eyes of many. By the third week of his fast, celebrities and prominent citizens publicly expressed support for him. His fast, no doubt, revived the protestHowever, he was also the weakest link in the protest. This is because he was probably the only entity among the four mentioned above who didn't doubt the government's intentions, at least not publicly.The other aspect to this is that NEET wasn't the only issue for Wangchuk, he's also fighting for Ladakh's statehood. That issue requires a parallel negotiation with the government. It is important to note that members of Ladakh's Apex Body were also with Wangchuk and Union Minister JP Nadda and Jitendra Singh when he broke his fast. 'Darr Chala Gaya': PM Modi is Losing His Teflon, No Going Back from HereWangchuk also bought into the government's concern that the protests are being used by "anti-social elements". He emphasised on this even in the statement on breaking his fast.The government had tried the same argument with the farm unions, especially after the Red Fort incident on 26 January, 2021. However, the farm unions refused to budge. The government then tried to pressurise the one farm union leader it thought was the weakest link in the entire protest: Rakesh Tikait. The government thought that since Tikait hailed from West UP and not Punjab and had previously cooperated with the BJP, he could be pressured into striking a deal.But Tikait proved to be a tougher customer than the Modi government anticipated. His emotional outburst on 28 January, 2021, prevented a police crackdown on the Ghazipur protest site and led to a fresh mobilisation in the farmers' protest. Read this piece on the entire episode. Like Tikait in 2021, the BJP government considered Wangchuk a more conciliatory entity in the NEET protest. This is what led to the police operation early on morning on 18 July to take him away from Jantar Mantar. This backfired and eventually led to the entry of the wildcards in the entire protest: the large number of Gen Z protesters who joined and practically took over the protest. Monday onwards, the protest assumed a life of its own—and even the CJP isn't completely in control of it. 'Sanatanis Are Here': Inside Hindutva Outfits Threatening Jantar Mantar ProtestThe government is trying to fragment its opponents. Wangchuk is now more or less out of the way. The government's plan is now to restrict the Opposition to a debate in Parliament and the CJP to the negotiations at the Constitution Club. The larger aim is to tire out the common protestors. The government's deal with Wangchuk also puts the Opposition and CJP in a tricky position.The other threat looming over the Opposition and, more so, the CJP is of the government arresting protesters. The government has left its agreement with Wangchuk on arrests a bit ambiguous. It has promised not to arrest any youth peacefully protesting at Jantar Mantar and those who took part in the march on 20 July. But then what about protesters who were at Connaught Place and other locations? How about those who were detained on their way to the protest sites or detained in other cities? There doesn't seem to be any direct commitment on them. Both the CJP and the Opposition see the Pradhan issue as one among many more mobilisations to come. Large-scale arrests here can affect future mobilisations.The government is counting on isolating the Opposition and CJP and getting them to agree to a dialogue without removing Pradhan. The government also hopes that it can wear down the GenZ protesters through a combination of the carrot of the PM's assurances on paper leaks as well as the stick of possible arrests.Perhaps the CJP and Opposition, especially the Congress, may have to coordinate a lot better on how they plan to respond to the government without compromising on the core demand of Pradhan's resignation. The government, on its part, seems to be willing to make every concession short of removing Pradhan. The reason for this is simple. Every other measure can be spun either as PM Modi's generosity (compensation) or his decisiveness (action against paper leak accused). Removing Pradhan, however, would be an admission of guilt. The question now is: who will blink first—government, Opposition, or the CJP? And how long will the common protesters sustain if Pradhan isn't removed?CJP Protest: Behind Modi Govt's Two-Point Plan to Contain Students

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Sonam Wangchuk-Govt Deal Puts CJP & Oppn in a Bind: What Led to it? What Next?

Sonam Wangchuk was the student protest's strongest link as well as its weakest.

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Topics: Dharmendra Pradhan Students Protest Sonam Wangchuk