CJP Protest: Youth vs Narendra Modi, Has PM Lost His Teflon Image?

Something changed at the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) protest over the weekend and, more so, after the police violence on Monday, 20 July. Posters and slogans targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi began outnumbering those against Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. It was now much bigger than education reform, paper leaks or even the CJP. On being asked why this happened, protester after protester said the same three words: "Darr chala gaya" (The fear is gone). That this is happening in Central Delhi, is also significant. This is the seat of political power in the country. It is an area where PM Modi has sought to stamp his mark through the Central Vista project. Defying the police here, is a direct defiance of the PM. This is a section that felt silenced by the ruling class—not just the government and ruling party, but also the judiciary, mainstream media, celebrities, and online trolls. Then there were the material challenges of a stagnant job market and rising costs.They have now found their voice. And there is no turning back from here.However, this doesn't necessarily mean it will translate into electoral change.CJP Protest: Behind Modi Govt's Two-Point Plan to Contain StudentsThe Prime Minister on Thursday, 23 July put out a social media post, promising "fast-track courts" to punish the accused in paper leak cases. This is a rare occasion of the PM making a statement promising specifics. So far the government's strategy had been to not make the PM get into specifics beyond a point, in order to insulate him from any future blame. From the government's point of view, while sacking Pradhan would be a major departure from its policy to never accept blame, it could still be spun as "the government listening to the youth". Remember, it did take a U-turn on the farm laws after a protest that lasted nearly 18 months. From the CJP's perspective, it would be the ideal outcome for now. It would enable them to claim a major victory barely a couple of months into its formation.The longer the protest continues, the more dangerous it becomes for both sides. On one hand, it would potentially increase the resentment against the government and, specifically, the PM. On the other hand, the longer the protest lasts, the higher the chances of some stray incident turning violent. The CJP leaders know from the example of the Bhima Koregaon and anti-CAA protests that irrespective of which side initiates or carries out the violence, the police will go after the protest leaders.CJP Protest: Behind Modi Govt's Two-Point Plan to Contain StudentsThe problem for the government is that the youth who joined the protest and faced or witnessed police violence, aren't going to come back and support them. In all likelihood, many of them may turn into active campaigners against the government's narrative. Most may do it online and some offline as well. But they are unlikely to forget this experience.Anyone who has taken part in a protest would know the diverse emotions involved—thrill, fear, anger, camaraderie etc—none of the youth will forget this easily even after the protest ends.For these youth, the Modi government will be the villain just as the UPA was for the Nirtbhaya and India Against Corruption protesters, VP Singh for the anti-Mandal Commission protesters, and Indira Gandhi for the anti-Emergency protesters. This opens up a worrying possibility that the government may go for a harsh crackdown on the protesters, aimed at crushing not just the present mobilisation but demoralising the youth to such an extent that it crushes the possibility of a future mobilisation. It has already done that with the anti-CAA protests, Bhima Koregaon protesters, and Waris Punjab De. But the government could afford to be harsh because these represented sections that were never with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the first place. It won't be easy to do that with the NEET protests. The best-case scenario for the government is that the youth protesters' energies die down, and they cease to be a threat to them in the run-up to the next Lok Sabha elections. Why the Modi Govt May Still Refuse to Sack Dharmendra PradhanThe Opposition parties may be the default beneficiaries of the youth protest. But it is also true that this protest wouldn't have happened at such a scale if the youth had faith in the Opposition. No doubt, elections haven't been a level-playing field, and the government has freely used probe agencies against the Opposition. However, had this protest been led by an Opposition party, it wouldn't have been able to mobilise so much support from the general public. The good thing for the Opposition is that the youth anger is against the government and not the political class as a whole. This makes it different from the Gen-Z protest in Nepal, where every party was put in the dock. Here, Opposition leaders are being welcomed by the protesters. Why the Opposition Struggles to Turn Democratic Threat Into Mass AngerFor the last 12 years, PM Modi was considered a 'Teflon Leader'. Irrespective of whatever the government did wrong, he almost always managed to escape blame. Demonetisation was seen as a "well-intentioned move" with bad consequences. GST woes came to be associated with first Arun Jaitley and then Nirmala Sitharaman. Even on jobs and economic stagnation, it is Sitharaman who has been facing flak. COVID was seen as an external phenomenon, and the government escaped much of the blame for the COVID deaths. However, this has begun changing. Early signs of it could be seen in the aftermath of the PM's austerity statement during the US-Iran war. It received ridicule from even sections that didn't traditionally oppose the government. In the current youth protest, the criticism and ridicule have assumed entirely different proportions. The sight of youngsters with no political affiliation, carrying memes or caricatures of PM Modi as posters freely in central Delhi, would have been unthinkable even a year ago. This doesn't necessarily mean the BJP is losing 2029. Three years is a long time in politics. It won't be easy for either the Opposition or any protest movement to sustain the mobilisation for such a long period. Even the IAC movement mobilised support against the government for about 18 months before it transformed into the Aam Aadmi Party. But from 2013, the anti-UPA mantle was taken over by the BJP under PM Modi. Then the present regime though shaken by the protests, has its command-and-control structures very much intact. There are no signs of any major internal divisions. The Opposition is licking its wounds from the defeat in West Bengal and the split in key parties like Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT). And it is still much weaker in both money and manpower than the BJP. But there's no doubt that the government is going to be much more insecure from this point on, and this will have consequences for everyone.CJP Protest: 'Morning After Detention, Many Went Straight Back to Jantar Mantar'

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'Darr Chala Gaya': PM Modi is Losing His Teflon, No Going Back from Here

The focus of the protest has shifted from Dharmendra Pradhan to PM Modi, writes Aditya Menon.

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Topics: Youth Dharmendra Pradhan Students Protest