'Pachees se Tees, Narendra aur Nitish' (2025 to 2030, Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar), the NDA's slogan for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, is all set to become a reality, with the alliance heading towards a landslide win in the state.
The next question on everyone's minds is: Will Nitish Kumar take oath as CM, again, now for the tenth time?
BJP leader and outgoing Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary has given a statement that Nitish Kumar will be the CM again. But his leverage may get constrained by the fact that the BJP has more seats than the JD-U. Also, the Mahagathbandhan now doesn't even have enough numbers that it can form a government with Nitish like they did when he switched sides in 2022.
However, one thing is clear. Nitish Kumar's name will now be seen as synonymous with Bihar, the way Naveen Patnaik was synonymous with Odisha until his defeat in 2024.
So what's the secret behind Nitish Kumar's success? How has he remained unbeaten even after being in power directly or indirectly since 2005, despite multiple flip-flops?
Base
The JD(U) has consistently retained strong support among Kurmis, Koeris, Extremely Backward Castes, and Mahadalits. Over his years in power, Nitish Kumar greatly increased representation from these sections by pushing for quotas within quotas.
Many in these sections also see him as a more benign option compared to the Yadav-dominated RJD and upper caste-dominated BJP. For many non-Yadav OBCs and non-Paswan Dalits, Nitish Kumar is seen as a leader who can protect their interests against more assertive communities.
Lesser Evil for Different Sections
Nitish Kumar has maintained a certain ideological ambiguity, or as his supporters say, an ideological middle ground, in politically polarised times.
He has presented himself as a social justice politician who is not opposed to the upper castes or Hindutva.
To Muslims, he presented himself as a BJP ally who was not hostile towards them.
This has helped him reconcile even competing sections.
Welfarism
The unemployment crisis in Bihar and the large scale migration from the state, does raise questions about Nitish Kumar's development track record. However, his regime managed to escape blame for it through a combination of welfarism and social engineering.
Pro-Women Policies
Nitish Kumar's championing of prohibition, despite its questionable implantation, has endeared him to women voters. In urban areas, many women who have experienced the previous RJD regime do say that law and order improved under Nitish Kumar.
To add to that, welfare schemes and direct cash transfers targeted towards women further cemented Nitish Kumar's goodwill.
According to most pre-poll surveys, NDA had a sizable lead among women voters.
Personal Equations
Another crucial way by which Nitish Kumar has managed to preserve his relevance despite multiple U-turns is by keeping friendly relations even with political rivals.
Despite a bitter political rivalry between Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar, the two always maintained cordial relations at a personal level. When Kumar was in the Mahagathbandhan camp, he preserved his friends in the BJP like the Late Sushil Kumar Modi and Arun Jaitley. Over the years he also developed a direct personal rapport with PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, despite the ups and downs in their relationship.
This extended to many estranged colleagues as well. After making him the CM, Kumar was behind the unceremonious removal of Jitan Ram Manjhi from office in 2015. Manjhi left the JD(U) and formed the Hindustan Awam Morcha. But in the 2020 elections, Manjhi became one of Nitish's strongest backers. The same goes for Upendra Kushwaha, who had fallen out with Nitish because of his decision to split ranks with the BJP in 2013. Kushwaha has also come around to being a strong Nitish supporter.