The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to return to power in Kerala after a gap of 10 years, racing ahead of the Left Democratic Front (LDF). If early trends are anything to go by, the UDF is heading for its best performance in over two decades.
If these trends continue, it would mean the end of the road for CM Pinarayi Vijayan, the first chief minister in Kerala's history to win two consecutive terms.
What led to the UDF's win and LDF's defeat?
Kerala Election Results: 7 Reasons Why Congress-led UDF Won and LDF Lost
1. Congress Unity
The Congress, which has been affected by factionalism in the past, fought this election in a united manner. The party didn't project a CM face, instead banking on collective leadership at the state level and local connect of candidates. The demise of former CM Oommen Chandy in 2023 also led to widespread sympathy in the state.
Expand2. Anti-incumbency
Kerala traditionally tends to vote out incumbent governments every five years. Vijayan was the first to buck this trend in 2021, mainly due to his government's handling of the COVID-19 crisis and the disarray in the Congress at that time.
However, no southern state has given any party three consecutive terms in a long time. The reason for this is strong political competition in the region and high expectations of the electorate, who consider it important to keep a check on incumbent parties.
Expand3. Concentration of Power With CM
There were complaints that a great deal of power got concentrated in the hands of CM Vijayan and his core supporters. In the 2021 elections, his ticket-selection policy led to the sidelining of many senior leaders like former health minister KK Shailaja.
There were fears in Kerala, including among a section of Left sympathisers, that another term for Vijayan would lead to further concentration of power.
Expand4. Reduction in LDF Support Among Key Demographic Groups
The LDF lost support from key demographic groups like Christians and Muslims, who consolidated behind the UDF. It also lost some support among younger voters. The IUML, the Congress' ally, notched up a strong performance in North Kerala, gaining seats compared to 2021.
Expand5. BJP Rise Contained
The BJP failed to increase its vote share compared to 2021 in any substantial way. It failed to even reach its 20 percent vote share from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala.
The party and its allies failed to make any significant inroads among Chrisitan voters and even its rise among Nairs was constrained by the Congress having a strong line-up of Nair leaders like VD Satheesan, KC Venugopal, Ramesh Chennithala, and Shashi Tharoor.
Expand6. Economic Woes
The high public debt in Kerala—over Rs 4 lakh crore—emerged as a major talking point against the LDF government during the elections. Combined with inadequate job creation and agrarian woes, it created a narrative against the Left government.
Expand7. Sabarimala Gold Theft Issue
The 2025 controversy over alleged gold theft/plating removal from the Sabarimala temple, with CPI(M) leaders being accused, angered a section of Hindu voters in central and southern Kerala. While a section of these voters may have supported the BJP as it raised the issue forcefully, some may also have tactically backed the Congress to defeat the Left.
Expand
Congress Unity
The Congress, which has been affected by factionalism in the past, fought this election in a united manner. The party didn't project a CM face, instead banking on collective leadership at the state level and local connect of candidates. The demise of former CM Oommen Chandy in 2023 also led to widespread sympathy in the state.
Anti-incumbency
Kerala traditionally tends to vote out incumbent governments every five years. Vijayan was the first to buck this trend in 2021, mainly due to his government's handling of the COVID-19 crisis and the disarray in the Congress at that time.
However, no southern state has given any party three consecutive terms in a long time. The reason for this is strong political competition in the region and high expectations of the electorate, who consider it important to keep a check on incumbent parties.
Concentration of Power With CM
There were complaints that a great deal of power got concentrated in the hands of CM Vijayan and his core supporters. In the 2021 elections, his ticket-selection policy led to the sidelining of many senior leaders like former health minister KK Shailaja.
There were fears in Kerala, including among a section of Left sympathisers, that another term for Vijayan would lead to further concentration of power.
Reduction in LDF Support Among Key Demographic Groups
The LDF lost support from key demographic groups like Christians and Muslims, who consolidated behind the UDF. It also lost some support among younger voters. The IUML, the Congress' ally, notched up a strong performance in North Kerala, gaining seats compared to 2021.
BJP Rise Contained
The BJP failed to increase its vote share compared to 2021 in any substantial way. It failed to even reach its 20 percent vote share from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Kerala.
The party and its allies failed to make any significant inroads among Chrisitan voters and even its rise among Nairs was constrained by the Congress having a strong line-up of Nair leaders like VD Satheesan, KC Venugopal, Ramesh Chennithala, and Shashi Tharoor.
Economic Woes
The high public debt in Kerala—over Rs 4 lakh crore—emerged as a major talking point against the LDF government during the elections. Combined with inadequate job creation and agrarian woes, it created a narrative against the Left government.
Sabarimala Gold Theft Issue
The 2025 controversy over alleged gold theft/plating removal from the Sabarimala temple, with CPI(M) leaders being accused, angered a section of Hindu voters in central and southern Kerala. While a section of these voters may have supported the BJP as it raised the issue forcefully, some may also have tactically backed the Congress to defeat the Left.