As INDIA Coalition Begins Seat-Sharing Talks, 6 Kinds of Arrangements Emerge

There are three categories of states that the INDIA coalition partners need to concentrate on most.

After the conclusion of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) coalition meeting in Mumbai on 1 September, the Opposition parties announced that they would be fighting together "as far as possible" based on the principle of "mutual give and take".

The parties resolved to initiate seat-sharing talks at the earliest.

Based on the extent of cooperation between INDIA coalition parties, states and Union Territories in India can broadly be classified into six categories. It is the fourth, fifth and sixth category states that are the most tricky for the INDIA coalition from the point of view of seat-sharing.

States Where Alliances Are in Place and Seat Sharing is Settled (54 Seats)

• There are mainly two states and one UT in this category - Jharkhand (14 seats), Tamil Nadu (39 seats), and Puducherry.

• In these places, the INDIA constituents contested as allies in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and Assembly elections in 2019 and 2021 respectively.

States Where Congress is the Main Challenger to BJP (131 Seats)

• This is the case in several states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh.

• Then there are states like Karnataka, Assam and Haryana, besides Union Territory Ladakh, where also Congress is the main challenger to the BJP, even though smaller regional parties do exist.

States Where 'Non-INDIA' Regional Parties Are Important (66 seats)

• This includes Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Mizoram, Nagaland and Sikkim.

• Except for Telangana, in all the other states the dominant regional parties are also formal or informal allies of the BJP. Unless these parties shift loyalties, there is little that the INDIA coalition can do.

States Where Alliances are in Place but Seat-sharing isn't Settled (96 seats)

• Bihar and Maharashtra: The UPA had contested as an alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2020 Assembly elections. But the seat-sharing formula will have to be revisited due to the entry of the Janata Dal-United and Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray respectively. This also applies to Dadra and Nagar Haveli, presently held by the Shiv Sena UBT.

• Jammu and Kashmir: The National Conference, People's Democratic Party and Congress are allies on paper but they would need to chalk out seat-sharing for the 5 seats in the state. It is less complicated in Jammu, where the NC and PDP are likely to support Congress candidates. The problem will be in Kashmir, where the NC and PDP have historically been competitors. The Congress, too, has some presence in South Kashmir.

• Tripura: The Left and Congress contested as allies during the 2023 Assembly polls but will need to arrive at a seat sharing arrangement for the two Lok Sabha seats. There may also be attempts to reach out to TIPRA Motha.

States Where Alliances Aren't in Place, But Are Necessary (120 Seats)

These would be the most complicated category of states for the INDIA coalition. It is in these states that the 'give and take' promised by the coalition partners would be tested the most. These are the states in this category and the parties involved:

• Uttar Pradesh: Samajwadi Party, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal

• Gujarat, Delhi and Chandigarh: Congress, Aam Aadmi Party

• Meghalaya: Congress and Trinamool Congress

• Manipur: Congress, JD-U, Left

States Where Friendly Fights May Be the Only Option (76 seats)

These are states where INDIA coalition partners are in direct competition with each other. In these states a coalition may not be required and may even be counterproductive as it could enable the BJP to become the main opposition.

• Kerala: The Congress-led UDF and Left-led LDF have been the main competitors and there is unlikely to be any pre-poll alliance between them.

• Punjab: The ruling AAP and opposition Congress are in direct competition and the possibilities of an alliance are remote. The BJP is a marginal player in the state except in 2-3 seats like Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and perhaps Amritsar. Perhaps AAP and Congress may be compelled to have some kind of understanding in these particular seats. Otherwise, the INDIA coalition constituents can afford to go for friendly fights in Punjab. However, they may need to re-examine this in case the Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP come together.

• West Bengal: This would perhaps be the most complicated state in this category, with the Trinamool Congress and Left being in direct competition and the Congress also being strong in certain areas. There is almost no question of the TMC and Left coming together. CPI-M general secretary Sitaram Yechury told this to The Quint as many words during a recent interview.

• The TMC and Left coming together would also be counterproductive as Left votes may shift to the BJP in TMC seats.

• However if the Left and Congress come together against both the TMC and BJP, it could leader to a split of anti-BJP votes.

• What actually might help is an understanding between TMC and Congress whereby the TMC concedes some space in areas where the latter is strong and the Congress doesn't field candidates in rest of the state. In 2019, the BJP managed to win a seat like Maldaha Uttar mainly due to a vote split between the TMC and the Congress, both of whom fielded candidates from ABA Gani Khan Chowdhury's family.

• Lakshadweep Lok Sabha seat has been witnessing a friendly fight between the NCP and Congress since 2009 and this is likely to happen in the next Lok Sabha election as well.